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Winter 2014/15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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00z UKMET tracks the surface low from the TX panhandle to western Ohio.

 

Oh boy. Still, clearly were starting to see some non-NW impulse/clipper action on the models. That's a win in wanting to see more substantial systems running through the region. No guarantees of course, but a change of pace nonetheless.

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The central MN screw zone is alive and well on today's 12z GFS run. The negative snowfall departures up that way are impressive(ly bad) so far this year. On the order of 20 inches below normal in some spots. That's quite a departure to rack up by late January.

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One of these major agencies ought to program a new numerical model-- the HA7DM, Highly Accurate 7-Day Model.

I think it would be awesome if they did a high accuracy 7 day model and just left it to that with that model.  While it is fun to talk the long range and we have made improvements but a season like this year shows we have a long ways to go.

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Really impressive last two runs of the GFS out to 10 days. Clipper parade galore leading to impressive 10 day amounts. 

 

you ain't kidding.  Just looped thru, nothing huge but about 4 solid hits thru day 10.   The 138-144 threat is on the uk and the ggem as well.  Looks like a small system with the arctic front.

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