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Winter 2014/15 Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


Chicago Storm

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Multiple choice time.  The odds on this or something like it verifying are:

 

a) 0%

b )1%

c) 2%

d) 5%

e) Other

Going to have some fun with this and say e) Other ...  NAO is Positive ... PNA is negative to neutral ... if those remain as forecasted ... a Great Lakes track would not be surprising.  AO tanking is the '???' player but the AO tanking forecasts have struggled significantly this winter so it will remain the ???.

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Would really have the threads burning up if this would verify.

Yes, 24" of snow in northwest Ohio!!!!, with snow on the Front Range too. I will contact my family members immediately and call for 24" in northwest Ohio. Oh wait. I will not call for that.

 

Now, back on topic of reality, looking at some of the ECMWF/GFS runs recently, Feb. 3rd is almost about a lock to be 10 to 30 degrees F below normal for the GL/OV. The ECMWF even has 850mb temps of 20C below average, that is equal to 36F below normal.

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One thing to note, with this system out east over the next few days it will force a pattern change with it being as strong as it is forecast, whether or not it is a positive for the region remains to be seen. Anything to change things up though is a positive at this junction.

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poor quality run though. time lagging, confused sampling between 120-168. Something is not clicking on that. doesn't look good for feb, though EPO reversal, bleh. Figures.

 

The Euro delivers a respectable clipper on Groundhogs Day.  All that southern energy is left sitting over the peninsula where Taco Bell gets their Baja chalupa ingredients from.

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So the Euro cuts off and lags the energy back in the Southwest, gee we haven't seen that before a billion times.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't get hung up on how it handles a cutoff low a week in advance.  It is interesting to note how important that energy is for developing sustained cold though.  Without that energy phasing with the northern stream, the pattern is modeled to be much more progressive and warmer for the Great Lakes.

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Yeah, I wouldn't get hung up on how it handles a cutoff low a week in advance.  It is interesting to note how important that energy is for developing sustained cold though.  Without that energy phasing with the northern stream, the pattern is modeled to be much more progressive and warmer for the Great Lakes.

 

Yeah, I am not hung up, my post was tongue in cheek.

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The Canadian has (intentionally) poor resolution at low latitudes.  It is probably the worst model in the world to use for forecasting lows that cutoff over the Baja peninsula.  Every model, even the JMA, hangs the energy back.  The only model I can think of that might be worse at handling cutoff lows is the post-192 hour truncated GFS.

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The Canadian has (intentionally) poor resolution at low latitudes. It is probably the worst model in the world to use for forecasting lows that cutoff over the Baja peninsula. Every model, even the JMA, hangs the energy back. The only model I can think of that might be worse at handling cutoff lows is the post-192 hour truncated GFS.

The Canadian looks a lot different than the ECMWF/GFS in the Pacific as well. That seems rather important if you're looking at the potential for sustained cold weather as I believe you were alluding to a few posts back.

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I know.  I am still exhausted from tracking the cutoff low disaster from a month ago.  I am ignoring this until a week passes.

 

At this point in time verification sits at 1.99%..... One eye open, the other playing back the bulk of the winter tracking misfortunes of the season.

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