Powerball Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The last legit southern stream threat was that New Years weekend storm. Right? And nothing in sight, even in fantasy land. Wow, that's amazing. Define "legit." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Define "legit." That storm was legit for me, got 5.5" cement on the front end WAA snows, then 2" more cement as the main cooler deform band came thru the next morning picks in the winter pic thread of course. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44959-winter-of-2014-15-picture-thread/page-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That storm was legit for me, got 5.5" cement on the front end WAA snows, then 2" more cement as the main cooler deform band came thru the next morning picks in the winter pic thread of course. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44959-winter-of-2014-15-picture-thread/page-2 Even then, you were essentially in the bullseye of a overall crappy system, aesthetically-speaking (I call it a "mutant storm") and in terms of actual cold sector moisture/precipitation... I'd say it's only legit by the low standards of practically every storm post-GHD 2011... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Even then, you were essentially in the bullseye of a overall crappy system, aesthetically-speaking (I call it a "mutant storm") and in terms of actual cold sector moisture/precipitation... I'd say it's only legit by the low standards of practically every storm post-GHD 2011... Gonna assume you are referring to your backyard. I wouldn't call 17" ( last Jan 4-5th ) a low standard legit storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Even then, you were essentially in the bullseye of a overall crappy system, aesthetically-speaking (I call it a "mutant storm") and in terms of actual cold sector moisture/precipitation... I'd say it's only legit by the low standards of practically every storm post-GHD 2011... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gonna assume you are referring to your backyard. I wouldn't call 17" ( last Jan 4-5th ) a low standard legit storm. Well technically, that wasn't really a southern stream system (any southern stream interaction was negligible at best). Even then, while there was a lot of cold sector moisture/precip with it, aesthetically, it was a rather unimpressive-looking storm (probably because it didn't have much, if any, southern stream interaction). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Well technically, that wasn't really a southern stream system (any southern stream interaction was negligible at best). Even then, while there was a lot of cold sector moisture/precip with it, aesthetically, it was a rather unimpressive-looking storm (probably because it didn't have much, if any, southern stream interaction). Who cares what it looked like. For all we know, some of the bigger storms from the past may not have looked the best. That aesthetically challenged storm managed to dump 10+ over about as wide an area of IN as any storm before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Who cares what it looked like. For all we know, some of the bigger storms from the past may not have looked the best. That aesthetically challenged storm managed to dump 10+ over about as wide an area of IN as any storm before.agree. For all the whining about not getting big storms, DTW has had FOUR 10"+ storms since 2011. Aesthetics be damned lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Who cares what it looked like. For all we know, some of the bigger storms from the past may not have looked the best. That aesthetically challenged storm managed to dump 10+ over about as wide an area of IN as any storm before. As far as the bolded, that's probably a very short list (excluding January 4th-5th), as none come to mind immediately. All of the biggies I can recall in recent history (December 2007, December 1987, GHD 2011, December 2000, Blizzard of 1978, December 2006, March 2008, etc.) were formidable-looking southern-stream cyclones. But more to my point, we have yet to get a decent wound-up southern stream system with a ton of cold sector precipitation/moisture in our region since GHD 2011. Whatever southern stream threats we've seen have been sheared out, disjointed messes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 wow, the ecmwf shows a 582 ridge over the rockies. 582 is pretty incredible for January. The model progs for the high amplitude ridge are basically the opposite of what happened in Morch 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 582 is pretty incredible for January. The model progs for the high amplitude ridge are basically the opposite of what happened in Morch 2012. I see NW flow hell in the future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I see NW flow hell in the future... Yep, if the ensembles are right past day 10, the attempt at the ridge flattening/sliding east early to mid next week will be followed by a transition to -EPO and +PNA. Best we can hope for is the ridge axis being farther west plus lack of Atlantic blocking to allow for a southern stream wave to cut and phase farther west or amped up clippers/hybrid Pacific systems. I'd bet more on the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't like how this regime is already taking over towards the beginning of February, it already stuck around for way too long last year. What I would hope is that a split flow eventually develops and we start to see some undercutting of the ridge for more systems to move into the SW, otherwise the drought in the west is going to quickly expand again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think there is a good chance the ridge axis will be further west. Whether it does anything is another question. well if we're talking about the euro, doesn't it have a bias west already. JB always harps on the euro's westward bias with ridge/trough placements and the gfs east bias. Claims the euro often mishandles the effects of the rockies....or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Final call for Sat/sun 2.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Haven't been paying attention, but a quick look at the NAEFS is pretty impressive in the long range..especially as you head east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 that looks realistic given long term trends and the current pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 zzzzzzz bonus lol @ CA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 zzzzzzz bonus lol @ CA Tought to get much more of a snoozefest than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Going on a ski trip to Tahoe in mid-Feb. Not looking good. Things can change in a big way out there in one week, but I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Going on a ski trip to Tahoe in mid-Feb. Not looking good. Things can change in a big way out there in one week, but I'm concerned. It's another Canada winter for the mountain west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 A couple of weak clippers between now and early Feb. Sunday one has shifted northeast in last several runs, so not expecting much more than a light event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Going on a ski trip to Tahoe in mid-Feb. Not looking good. Things can change in a big way out there in one week, but I'm concerned. I was looking at the forecast for Phoenix (Az) ...showing 80Fs next week... crazy. Wish i had a babysitter... sub 2 dollar gasoline=road trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS is certainly liking these super clippers, the first one dumps around .5 liquid equivalent and the second one about .6 liquid equivalent locally although that one is a bit more of a hybrid than a true clipper like the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS is certainly liking these super clippers, the first one dumps around .5 liquid equivalent and the second one about .6 liquid equivalent locally although that one is a bit more of a hybrid than a true clipper like the first one. Love me some clippers. Hoping that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That was one cold GFS run. Two different shots of -30 deg C air at 850mb into the upper Midwest/Lakes region after day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That was one cold GFS run. Two different shots of -30 deg C air at 850mb into the upper Midwest/Lakes region after day 10 That's some brutal cold in the long range. I think some of the coldest temps of the winter are almost inevitable at the end of January into the beginning of February, but hopefully it isn't that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Deja vu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The Euro is really cold towards the end of the run too. With the magnitude of cold shown, you'd think northern Louisiana has a better chance at interesting winter weather than the Ohio Valley Would really hate to waste what looks like the STJ actually coming to life by the beginning of February by getting extremely suppressive cold. Then again that could be interesting a little later in the month as the cold relaxes if the STJ can remain active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Deja vu. All over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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