Ajdos Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 6:30 AM, Stebo said: The Euro is definitely going to be a step in the right direction especially looking at the 120 and 144 hr maps. Yeah euro is north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Eastern MO all the way to most of OH buried. .50" up to here with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The euro verbatim would be another big spread the wealth event (like what several ensemble members had) and I said .50" liquid up to here with 850s in the low teens and sfc temps in the upper teens, good ratios on the north side. Man does this sound familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Judging by the ensemble mean, the EPS will still have a large spread, but likely a few deeper and farther north members this run. Can't really argue with a sharp ridge right off the west coast and an ejecting shortwave out of the southwest in the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes. I think we'd need the northern shortwave to dive in a good bit farther southwest for this to take on a negative tilt and cut much north of between I-70 and the Ohio River...the polar vortex is strong and centered near the longitude of Toronto, which seems rather far east for a storm to take on a negative tilt in our neck of the woods. Still time for that to change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 well, I guess if I'm going to see a bump north....6-7 days out is better than 48 hrs out. Tells me 1 of 2 things, it either keeps going north or it comes back south. The way the models have been this winter, unlikely a track thru Ohio holds for the next 6 days, (anecdotally, and hopefully speaking ) looking at the euro ens, there is a huge spread but mainly because there are 2 distinct camps, one is thru Ohio, the other is thru the lower TN valley. Not many in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lots of the usual signs in place for future NW shifts to come, looks like another solid hit in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 12:45 PM, A-L-E-K said: Lots of the usual signs in place for future NW shifts to come, looks like another solid hit in the making. Yep, seen this movie before. Looking good again for the MLI-MKE-ORD-GRR-DTW corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 1:22 PM, Chicago WX said: Yep, seen this movie before. Looking good again for the MLI-MKE-ORD-GRR-DTW corridor. you gonna chase the LE event to get the snow bug out of your system? After a 20" big dog, my tracking interest is at an all-time low. I'm sure i'll perk up when things get a little closer but i'm having a hard time getting pumped for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 1:27 PM, A-L-E-K said: you gonna chase the LE event to get the snow bug out of your system? After a 20" big dog, my tracking interest is at an all-time low. I'm sure i'll perk up when things get a little closer but i'm having a hard time getting pumped for this. No can do. But I will be up north early next week, so you know where my interests lie with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 1:30 PM, Chicago WX said: No can do. But I will be up north early next week, so you know where my interests lie with that one. I kind of liked the idea of you and hoosier splitting a honeymoon suite over valentine's weekend in scenic LaPorte Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 1:32 PM, A-L-E-K said: I kind of liked the idea of you and hoosier splitting a honeymoon suite over valentine's weekend in scenic LaPorte Co. Hoosier went north for GHD II, so I think he's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 00z GEFS had quite a few more big dogs than the 12z GEFS. I also heard that the 00z EURO ensembles were even further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 1:54 PM, Powerball said: I also heard that the 00z EURO ensembles were even further NW. Some are...and some are whiffs. Still a large enough spread. By 168 hours, mean slp location is SE OH/SW PA/WV area...though it's not even a closed contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 2:02 PM, Chicago WX said: Some are...and some are whiffs. Still a large enough spread. By 168 hours, mean slp location is SE OH/SW PA/WV area...though it's not even a closed contour. Ok, so that's actually a step back then... Majority of the EURO ensembles on yesterday's 12z run were along/north of the OH River... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 2:15 PM, Powerball said: Ok, so that's actually a step back then... Majority of the EURO ensembles on yesterday's 12z run were along/north of the OH River... I wouldn't call it a step back at all. The mean on both basically ends up in the same spot by day 6/7. All I'm saying is there is still quite a bit of spread, as we would/should expect at this range. Personally though, I'm pulling for EPS member #6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Feb 10th 12z Feb 11th 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GFS is a hot honker for St Louis. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 4:25 PM, Snowman99 said: 12z GFS is a hot honker for St Louis. I'll take it! I think anyone from St Louis/Springfield to Indy/Columbus would take that In a heart beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/10/2015 at 3:27 AM, Whitelakeroy said: Great update. I will say that I am glad we're going to have another above normal ice cover on the Great Lakes. This will greatly benefit the level recovery we have seen the past couple years. You mentioned the rapid ice development was not needed but I for one find it to be positive. I was only thinking of the ice jams on the St Clair River and those folks! There is already enough ice to help with evaporation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 7:29 PM, wxhstn74 said: I was only thinking of the ice jams on the St Clair River and those folks! There is already enough ice to help with evaporation. 1996 immediately comes to mind, my grandparents live on Harsens Island and their ferry was out of service for 2 weeks because of ice jams. I foresee similar issues this go around too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 On 2/11/2015 at 4:45 PM, Central Illinois said: I think anyone from St Louis/Springfield to Indy/Columbus would take that In a heart beat between wxbell and gfs snowfall maps, I'm up to about 175" in digital snowfall this season so far. wxbell has had me in pink so many times this winter I could be Harry's avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 feels like this map hasn't changed in a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 6:54 PM, A-L-E-K said: feels like this map hasn't changed in a year Yeah some of the signals are absolutely nuts for long range cold sticking around right into March and the trof/arctic push for middle of next week continues to get stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The LAF brothers would really love the last 6 days of the 12z Euro control run, as would a lot of people. I do think we will have more chances after this "threat" next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 8:37 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Yeah some of the signals are absolutely nuts for long range cold sticking around right into March and the trof/arctic push for middle of next week continues to get stronger Might be able to walk across Lake Superior by the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 8:52 PM, Angrysummons said: Control runs have flopped all winter. They don't catch events when they should and blow up PAC ridging when they should not. I see little difference from my post earlier. After the 20th, heights are going to start pushing northwesward and this will goes a pattern reversal with the CONUS. That may be good for some of you further northwest, but not further southeast. Models are not what they once were. are you ever right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 8:52 PM, Angrysummons said: Control runs have flopped all winter. They don't catch events when they should and blow up PAC ridging when they should not. I see little difference from my post earlier. After the 20th, heights are going to start pushing northwesward and this will goes a pattern reversal with the CONUS. That may be good for some of you further northwest, but not further southeast. Models are not what they once were. Well, at least you're on record. Will be easy to judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 8:54 PM, A-L-E-K said: are you ever right? Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 8:54 PM, Hoosier said: Well, at least you're on record. Will be easy to judge. Does he work at the QC NWS office as this sounds like something we read last year about this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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