tamarack Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 06z gfs cut qpf for AUG by 70% compared to yesterday, and by 90% for RUM - down to 0.06" of near-32 slop there. Now the 1"+ is for EPO-HUL (and RA for both places.) Sure finding excuses not to snow this month (and last.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Could be looking at a significant elevation gradient in western MA. Below 1000' it's going to be tough to accumulate as the surface winds don't pivot with such late development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Outside of the higher elevations for this one unless things change drastically which i don't think will be the case its going to be a cold rain as the boundary layer is torched to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 12z GFS looks to be going west of 06z as well, Getting close to a possible consensus if we get the Euro to shift east we will end up with a track somewhere between the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Gfs is a soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GFS is a blue bomb in VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro owns this one again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Disaster for NH and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Mtns get hammered in VT/NH/ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro owns this one again. Man, i thought for sure yesterday it was going to cave east pretty good...but if the 12z GFS is any indication, it could be the first big Euro ownage since the Thanksgiving Eve storm. It had been struggling a bit, even in that 72-96 timeframe. Although a GFS track verbatim would be a compromise of sorts rather than a straight Euro win, but it would probably be like 60/40 toward the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That thing is torching ME, not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Man, Whites and W ME get destroyed after some initial rain, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 not a fan of this upgrade. takes longer to process, seems unstable run-to-run, and i don't have a good handle on how to adjust for any of its shortcomings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Man, i thought for sure yesterday it was going to cave east pretty good...but if the 12z GFS is any indication, it could be the first big Euro ownage since the Thanksgiving Eve storm. It had been struggling a bit, even in that 72-96 timeframe. Although a GFS track verbatim would be a compromise of sorts rather than a straight Euro win, but it would probably be like 60/40 toward the EC. That was a big jump. Yeah, figured a compromise, but that was certainly a nod to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 not a fan of this upgrade. takes longer to process, seems unstable run-to-run, and i don't have a good handle on how to adjust for any of its shortcomings. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That thing is torching ME, not sure about that. The area near the NH border like SR look like they get destroyed after about hour 69....check the BML soundings. Of course, this solution is probably not verifying verbatim anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I agree. so often with the old GFS you could just sort of look at it...and say..."OK just need to adjust here and move this here" and so on. with this one...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 so often with the old GFS you could just sort of look at it...and say..."OK just need to adjust here and move this here" and so on. with this one...ugh. You could just not look at it or use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The area near the NH border like SR look like they get destroyed after about hour 69....check the BML soundings. Of course, this solution is probably not verifying verbatim anyway. Yeah maybe west like SR, that may help. It looked awful to the east as the warmer air tucks in. But as you said...probably looks different at verification. Maybe it's one of those things where you flip immediately to snow when that src-850 trough axis moves through. Big VT hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 BL temps early were warm but crash as the low intensified and smokes the Whites and Mahoosics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 not a fan of this upgrade. takes longer to process, seems unstable run-to-run, and i don't have a good handle on how to adjust for any of its shortcomings. I am thinking the same thing. Started me making me nervous when the para and gfs were showing very different solutions at the same time. now what.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 so often with the old GFS you could just sort of look at it...and say..."OK just need to adjust here and move this here" and so on. with this one...ugh. I don't know what to think. My first test will be some sort of a coastal or east coast system..even a clipper. For this one, the outcome as far as I am concerned isn't going to matter, but the solution from 6 hrs ago vs now is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 not a fan of this upgrade. takes longer to process, seems unstable run-to-run, and i don't have a good handle on how to adjust for any of its shortcomings. Yup - I'm not excited at all with the new GFS. Getting owned by the Euro for the first coastal of its life is not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 You could just not look at it or use it i look at pretty much everything there is to look at. even models that are entirely laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That was a big jump. Yeah, figured a compromise, but that was certainly a nod to the euro. Not just a nod... more like it ran over and gave the euro a high five, a fist bump, and a chest bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Just may be down to watching just two model runs a day at 12z and 0z for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Congrats interior New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Dendrites for dendrite while a Torrent for Tamarack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Dendrites for dendrite while a Torrent for Tamarack. You have been on fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That GFS has been like a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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