weathafella Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Once again we've gone from ramped up NAO turner to not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro is still a rainer....but pretty meh system perhaps. How do the ENS look for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 How do the ENS look for it? A bit east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It actually does force a big ridge near the NAO region, but this storm no any other storm will change it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 has seemed that is the trend other than the occasional amped run for a while. Could be nothing Yeah I agree. I'm surprised BTV is going all in... The "heavy snow" wording comes out when they have like 6"+ in the grids... seems like a bullish forecast given every other guidance aside the ECMWF. Sunday Night... Snow or sleet likely. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Martin Luther King Jr Day... Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs around 30. Chance of snow 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 donsutherland1, on 16 Jan 2015 - 06:41 AM, said: Based on the 0z runs, this possible storm represents the first major qpf "battle" between the ECMWF and the upgraded GFS. Select qpf forecasts for the NYC metro area from the 0z runs: BDR: ECMWF: 1.30"; GFS: 0.01" EWR: ECMWF: 1.31"; GFS: None ISP: ECMWF: 1.10"; GFS: 0.09" NYC: ECMWF: 1.38"; GFS: None Gee I wonder which model will win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 So weird how the Euro came back west a tick last night...it's completely on it's own. We're getting fairly close too (like 72 hours out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 donsutherland1, on 16 Jan 2015 - 06:41 AM, said: Gee I wonder which model will win all thats saying is the rain is further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The precip shield is so compact to the west...the qpf differences are a little misleading because the gradient is so sharp that small differences in track mean a lot. The important thing to take away is that this is dead for SNE snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 all thats saying is the rain is further west And would also give a much better shot at 1-2 on the backend for much of SNE. If you want snow..you want the Euro ENS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Its not often the euro is wrong this close in either 12z today should shed some light So weird how the Euro came back west a tick last night...it's completely on it's own. We're getting fairly close too (like 72 hours out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 My guess is the Euro comes east at 12z....the other guidance might try and tick west a bit too...but that was weird to see divergence inside of 84 hours last night...all the other models went east and basically made it a glorified FROPA while the Euro actually went west when it was already a western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro ensembles are in pretty good agreement. Hard to argue with the op Euro track as much. I also see virtually no snow on the backend on the Euro - not sure what Kevin is looking at. There's maybe a small sliver of heavy, wet snow and/or sleet when things dynamically cool for the Berkshires and the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah the model divergence is pretty funny. We'll probably see some sort of a compromise I would guess...which either way doesn't mean much I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah the model divergence is pretty funny. We'll probably see some sort of a compromise I would guess...which either way doesn't mean much I suppose. glorified fropa, any backside action (which I know Kevin prefers) is in NNE on the picnic table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah the model divergence is pretty funny. We'll probably see some sort of a compromise I would guess...which either way doesn't mean much I suppose. I just can't believe the GFS/NAM/GGEM show literally only a few hundreths of precip... while the Euro Ensembles have us nearing 1.0" of QPF by Day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I just can't believe the GFS/NAM/GGEM show literally only a few hundreths of precip... while the Euro Ensembles have us nearing 1.0" of QPF by Day 4. Man that's a great crushing. I know you don't want any more snow but that's a nice dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I just can't believe the GFS/NAM/GGEM show literally only a few hundreths of precip... while the Euro Ensembles have us nearing 1.0" of QPF by Day 4. Normally I favor the EC, but the EC has had moments where it was a bit too bullish this year. Compromise is my guess. The GFS may be too east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Normally I favor the EC, but the EC has had moments where it was a bit too bullish this year. Compromise is my guess. The GFS may be too east. Its not really just that though, the Euro is much more than a fropa while the GFS is just that especially concerning CNE NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah I agree. I'm surprised BTV is going all in... forecast.JPG The "heavy snow" wording comes out when they have like 6"+ in the grids... seems like a bullish forecast given every other guidance aside the ECMWF. Sunday Night... Snow or sleet likely. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Martin Luther King Jr Day... Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs around 30. Chance of snow 70 percent. BGM similarly is going for this in a big way for central NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro idea of 1 inch plus is def wrong and tossed..but a nice compromise if you like a little snow in SNE is the ENS ..We'll see..but I'd bet the 12z massively shifts east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Man that's a great crushing. I know you don't want any more snow but that's a nice dumping. I just have a hard time buying it. I gotta imagine the EURO is too amped. Just hard that its ensembles agree with it. Can literally every other model miss this at this time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 I just have a hard time buying it. I gotta imagine the EURO is too amped. Just hard that its ensembles agree with it. Can literally every other model miss this at this time frame? They don't..They are east of the op by a fair bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro idea of 1 inch plus is def wrong and tossed..but a nice compromise if you like a little snow in SNE is the ENS ..We'll see..but I'd bet the 12z massively shifts east I'm looking at the individual ensembles right now and I think you're reading into the "mean" too much...there are two camps really. One camp that looks similar to the EURO with a big QPF bomb moving through New England, and the other camp with a much further east and drier look along the front. The mean puts the low in the middle which might look better on paper, but its really one option or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 They don't..They are east of the op by a fair bit The ensemble mean brings you 1.25-1.5" of +RN QPF. That is certainly much closer to the EURO than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We want to see the Euro solution but just shift that track 100 miles east, Not much to ask is it?.................lol We need to see that low develop further south as it only gets going on the GFS after it passes this lat which is to late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Looking at the 12z Nam at H5, The trough is sharper and further south this run then 06z so it looks like it will be west this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It will probably be a compromise of some sort is my guess. For me, could care less, but it matters up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It will probably be a compromise of some sort is my guess. For me, could care less, but it matters up north. It matters a lot yes up in the mountains of VT/NH/ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The Can ens crush VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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