dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Definitely not going to be all snow, but more wintry than not? Not my call today though, I'm mostly on the sidelines until it's go time for this one. Trend today seemed to favor that, West is best though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Definitely not going to be all snow, but more wintry than not? Not my call today though, I'm mostly on the sidelines until it's go time for this one. I was surprised to see the zones as all snow last night given the discussion on here. Thanks for the reality check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Eric Fisher @ericfisher 43m 43 minutes ago Still a tremendous spread in ECMWF ensemble members for Sunday night. Rain/snow lines and timing still in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 But again, moisture on the cold side once you get down to our latitude seems limited. I suppose you can't rule out an inch for now further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Did the flu make it to VT? Are you OK? MLK holiday weekend, I've got a lot going on and just do not see a big upside to this storm. I don't want to have to worry about a 15 mile tick west causing pouring rain on Monday. I'd rather just go with some wrap around orographic snow showers and 1-3" than risk 1" of rain. I could see a very narrow area of significant snow, but this system to me seems like it would be more worrisome than its worth, lol. We are in a good spot right now, the skiing is excellent, the mountain snowpack is starting to mature, rain would be a big let down. That, and I've been on the "no threats" to us at the ski resort train lately... so if it were to somehow rain, I'd get burned. It doesn't fit with my holiday weekend forecast, so I'd rather it just stay away haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 But again, moisture on the cold side once you get down to our latitude seems limited. I suppose you can't rule out an inch for now further west. Exactly...will it rain, or will it be dry. It would need to be farther south and more consolidated to have a chance, so it could get its act together at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Seems a bit early to be posting this, but maybe its automatic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 MLK holiday weekend, I've got a lot going on and just do not see a big upside to this storm. I don't want to have to worry about a 15 mile tick west causing pouring rain on Monday. I'd rather just go with some wrap around orographic snow showers and 1-3" than risk 1" of rain. I could see a very narrow area of significant snow, but this system to me seems like it would be more worrisome than its worth, lol. We are in a good spot right now, the skiing is excellent, the mountain snowpack is starting to mature, rain would be a big let down. That, and I've been on the "no threats" to us at the ski resort train lately... so if it were to somehow rain, I'd get burned. It doesn't fit with my holiday weekend forecast, so I'd rather it just stay away haha. I think there's plenty of upside. But the odds of that upside playing out are pretty darn slim. I think I'll manage to get more of my driveway cleared from the rain than any gain to the pack--'pack' used gratuitously. 22.0/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Exactly...will it rain, or will it be dry. It would need to be farther south and more consolidated to have a chance, so it could get its act together at our latitude. Go ahead.. Rule out a couple inches potential of snow after the changeover. Please rule it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I think there's plenty of upside. But the odds of that upside playing out are pretty darn slim. I think I'll manage to get more of my driveway cleared from the rain than any gain to the pack--'pack' used gratuitously. 22.0/15 I took this photo skiing today on Mount Mansfield... its awesome right now out there. I have no desire to play any game with the rain/snow line right now, haha. The nickel and dime snowfalls are adding up just fine right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Trend today seemed to favor that, West is best thoughI figured east trend would be better. Draw down more cold air, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I figured east trend would be better. Draw down more cold air, no? Yeah and the 18z happy hour GFS does not dissspoint that's a cold snow to the coast run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Pf you ain"t raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Pf you ain"t raining Yeah feel much better about that after the 12z EURO went east. Last night's 00z was u-g-l-y. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yeah feel much better about that after the 12z EURO went east. Last night's 00z was u-g-l-y. that was such an outlier it was tossed so far it landed in Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 that was such an outlier it was tossed so far it landed in Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yeah and the 18z happy hour GFS does not dissspoint that's a cold snow to the coast run Hopefully you can thread the needle. Man what a narrow band of snow, lol. 2-meter temps really lag back though...I'm not sold on that cold snow to the coast on that run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Hopefully you can thread the needle. Man what a narrow band of snow, lol. 2-meter temps really lag back though...I'm not sold on that cold snow to the coast on that run verbatim. Maybe Maine has a shot to the coast...that's probably mostly rain even in ORH that run even though it was pretty far east. It's just a bad setup for snow in a big area. As it moves north, the mid-level center gets a bit more organized so places like SR/Sugarloaf can probably do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 P-type on the 18z GFS... the snow band is very narrow until it develops better in northern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Hopefully you can thread the needle. Man what a narrow band of snow, lol. 2-meter temps really lag back though...I'm not sold on that cold snow to the coast on that run verbatim. Its late developing the low as it gets pretty far north to throw moisture back further to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Maybe Maine has a shot to the coast...that's probably mostly rain even in ORH that run even though it was pretty far east. It's just a bad setup for snow in a big area. As it moves north, the mid-level center gets a bit more organized so places like SR/Sugarloaf can probably do well. Yeah it does end as snow to the Maine coast, but really any significant accumulations or plowable snowfall chance looks to be Sugarloaf/SR area like you said. Its just not a good set-up to advect moisture into the cold dome until the low is too far north for most folks. And like you said, that's a pretty far east solution, so going further east isn't going to help...except like I've been saying, get it far enough east so folks don't rain, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 There's our changeover and 1-3 in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 18Z confirms my thinking regarding this storm system, we change it over with a coating to perhaps 1 inch in the higher terrain of interior southern New England. I'd consider anything more a bonus at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 The other thing to watch out is potential icing as cold may never really get scoured or a change to sleet before snow . Really dynamic possibilities with this one in SnE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 There's our changeover and 1-3 in SNE Not verbatim . changeover yes but probably under 1 in most places. we need more moisture to wrap around the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Not verbatim . changeover yes but probably under 1 in most places. we need more moisture to wrap around the back side.See Euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The other thing to watch out is potential icing as cold may never really get scoured or a change to sleet before snow . Really dynamic possibilities with this one in SnETrain, say your prayers, and eat your vitamins, brotha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I picture this right now in my hood as a quick moving rain with wind whipped drying flurries , cold side precip FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 BTV looks to have gotten a bit excited, though I think 80% chances of snow over the weekend may be a little high given the uncertainties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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