OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 lol new HRRR has 0.3" total precip at MVL for the event through 9z. All other models have around an inch during that time. Its fascinating. hrrr_t_precip_neng_15.png Most of the globals have the majority of QPF between 00z and 06z up there, so hope remains. Given the orientation of the whole thing it will be more progressive across VT, but I think you'll have enough to salvage something for the ski slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Most of the globals have the majority of QPF between 00z and 06z up there, so hope remains. Given the orientation of the whole thing it will be more progressive across VT, but I think you'll have enough to salvage something for the ski slopes. Interesting that BTV noted it as well, haha. MPM is in their office too. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR QPF...AND MOST RECENT RAP THERMAL PROFILES TO LARGELY GOVERN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN VT (5-11 INCHES)...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE VT VALLEYS (2-6 INCHES) AND ACROSS NRN NY (1-4 INCHES) WHICH WILL BE TOO FAR WEST TO EXPERIENCE HEAVIER FGEN/QPF. I WILL NOTE THAT MOST RECENT TRENDS IN THE NEAR- TERM HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRIMARY PCPN SHIELD IS TENDING TO SHIFT A TAD FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENT FORECAST. IF THIS PANS OUT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN VT MAY BE A TAD LESS THAN CURRENT FORECASTS. TIME WILL TELL HOWEVER...AND ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THIS PACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It wouldn't shock me if the synoptic precip did shift east in this setup. Not really a good conveyor belt to throw back in these setups. Might be good though for areas in VT not really cold enough for snow except for backside stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 30.1F Maybe another hour or two before we level off around freezing. 31 at the lake apparently on my ghetto thermometer. My Dad said you can't even walk outside so they are staying the night. Might as well by the time it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 31 at the lake apparently on my ghetto thermometer. My Dad you can't even walk outside so they are staying the night. Might as well by the time it warms up.smart move, wife released on the way home, sore but ok. Saw video on NJ 12, 38 car, holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 32.4F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It wouldn't shock me if the synoptic precip did shift east in this setup. Not really a good conveyor belt to throw back in these setups. Might be good though for areas in VT not really cold enough for snow except for backside stuff. Yeah honestly wouldn't upset me if it went a bit east, I'm still not sold on the snow vs. rain deal, so less may be more in this situation. Just would be a pretty solid short-term bust by the global models that just came out a few hours ago with 1-2" of precipitation if we were to end up with like 0.5". But we'll see. I have a hard time believing the EURO would fail that bad on its QPF forecast (1.5" through 18z tomorrow off the 12z run) in the 12-24 hour time range after leading the way on this system the past 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah honestly wouldn't upset me if it went a bit east, I'm still not sold on the snow vs. rain deal, so less may be more in this situation. Just would be a pretty solid short-term bust by the global models that just came out a few hours ago with 1-2" of precipitation if we were to end up with like 0.5". But we'll see. I have a hard time believing the EURO would fail that bad on its QPF forecast (1.5" through 18z tomorrow off the 12z run) in the 12-24 hour time range after leading the way on this system the past 3-4 days. Yeah I'm not saying to expect it, but we've seen it before. It's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 32.3. Failed warm sector thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Icy as hell in Avon. My truck sliding all over on the back rds getting to the school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah I'm not saying to expect it, but we've seen it before. It's close. Yup, often they can end up tracking slightly further east too...especially when they are forecast to track right over the Whites. Maybe it ends up being closer to the coast. I call it the Messenger east shift on the meso-scale nowcast models, lol. Visions of years past writing about the RUC and having systems go another 15 miles east each hourly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skivt2 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Sitting at Killington. Supposed to work in CT tomorrow. Everyone tells us the roads are a mess. Should we drive down 4 to 100 to 103 to I91 right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Icy!! Reminds me of the last storm where we never really warmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah honestly wouldn't upset me if it went a bit east, I'm still not sold on the snow vs. rain deal, so less may be more in this situation. Just would be a pretty solid short-term bust by the global models that just came out a few hours ago with 1-2" of precipitation if we were to end up with like 0.5". But we'll see. I have a hard time believing the EURO would fail that bad on its QPF forecast (1.5" through 18z tomorrow off the 12z run) in the 12-24 hour time range after leading the way on this system the past 3-4 days. I will say, you've probably lost about 0.25" QPF from the globals that was already supposed to have fallen. So keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Icy!! Reminds me of the last storm where we never really warmed 20150123_161454.jpg Make sure you're holding your phone the right way when you take pics. They're upsidedown for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Hanging at 33, still slippery out there off the state roads, need a bout with 45-50 to loosen the ice up here Yea...I'm hanging out at 33, driveway is a sheet of ice still, I can shovel it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Make sure you're holding your phone the right way when you take pics. They're upsidedown for me. I still don't understand how to get that right...especially with taking videos...always comes out sideways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 30.9F. -ZL/-ZR Still getting some decent accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Just noticed that thanks lol Make sure you're holding your phone the right way when you take pics. They're upsidedown for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 smart move, wife released on the way home, sore but ok. Saw video on NJ 12, 38 car, holy crap Great to hear, Steve. Icy as hell in Avon. My truck sliding all over on the back rds getting to the school Do you have the bed weighted? Trucks suck in snow/ice without that. Icy!! Reminds me of the last storm where we never really warmed 20150123_161454.jpg You must have slipped when taking that picture...... 32.2/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Temp creeping up. 30.7F . Freezing rain. Ice is really thick on the driveway really hoping for a nice run into the upper 30's or a quick coating of snow on the back end to adhere to the ice so we don't have a total pavement glacier for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I still don't understand how to get that right...especially with taking videos...always comes out sidewaysIf you're using an iphone/ipad make sure the home button is on the bottom (vertical) or right (horizontal) when taking pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Sitting at Killington. Supposed to work in CT tomorrow. Everyone tells us the roads are a mess. Should we drive down 4 to 100 to 103 to I91 right now?I would not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Icy as hell in Avon. My truck sliding all over on the back rds getting to the schoolhope you mean slid as you are not texting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 had about an hour or so of snow at Wildcat, ice all through Mount Washington valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 If you're using an iphone/ipad make sure the home button is on the bottom (vertical) or right (horizontal) when taking pics. I'm going to make a note of this! Can never remember what way to tilt. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 had about an hour or so of snow at Wildcat, ice all through Mount Washington valley. I'm surprised the summit isn't snow (or maybe it is?). Profile suggests all snow down through 4000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Lots of snow sliding off the roof. Always a fun sound when it's due to the heavy amounts that have been just deposited on it. Not so fun when it's the rain making it release it's hold. We had climbed to 33.3, but back down now to 32.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm surprised the summit isn't snow (or maybe it is?). Profile suggests all snow down through 4000 feet. It went back and forth until I left at 130pm, was getting pretty slick up there. Seemed to change back to snow/sleet as I left lot around 145 and temp was falling slowly as I drove by Dana Place Inn 28F (Jackson), N. Conway was a skating rink at 31F. Still is now looks like Wildcat Mesonet is 29.4. Can't find the link to the auto-road profile page (Mt. Washington) I liked that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It went back and forth until I left at 130pm, was getting pretty slick up there. Seemed to change back to snow/sleet as I left lot around 145 and temp was falling slowly as I drove by Dana Place Inn 28F (Jackson), N. Conway was a skating rink at 31F. Still is now looks like Wildcat Mesonet is 29.4. Can't find the link to the auto-road profile page (Mt. Washington) I liked that link. Yeah it appears they redesigned the page and I can't find a similar display to the old link either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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