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We have a Dream MLK Disco Jan 18 Possible Wave on front


Damage In Tolland

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I'm noticing some large QPF differences tonight between the HRRR/RAP and the recent ECMWF. The meso-models seem to like 0.4-0.7" over the northern Spine and done by 12z...the EURO brought like 1.4-1.6" over the Spine by tomorrow at 18z.

That's a huge difference in impact.

 

I see ARW and NMM (and our local WRF) all around 1.25", which matches the GFS and Euro pretty well. You want to ride the CMC, it's going nearly 2" QPF!

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The difference is though that in a bad winter you can still snow and at least count on some upslope. Most of the rest of the region needs synoptic snow and if we lose that like this year.. There's just no way to make up those deficits with a 1-3 inch event every other week

To make climo...I would need a 3-4" event from now til April!

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HRRR has it snowing for MPM and Berks by 8-9:00pm

Maybe I can get in on some of that, the models did have it flipping to a thumping after rain a few days ago, would be nice to see that happen....its absolutely pouring out right now by the way, my calibrated thermocouple reads 33, my truck says 31, if we can hold at these temps and don't rocket up, I can hold on to some snowpack

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I see ARW and NMM (and our local WRF) all around 1.25", which matches the GFS and Euro pretty well. You want to ride the CMC, it's going nearly 2" QPF!

 

 

jk hope you can handle the.06 reduction

 

 

lol new HRRR has 0.3" total precip at MVL for the event through 9z.  All other models have around an inch during that time.  Its fascinating.

 

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MPM of the north. 

 

Haha go ahead, take your shots.  I'll line up against the wall ;)

 

It wasn't a concern.  Its more like if you see every model tracking the low over New Hampshire and 1 model takes it over the Benchmark.  You comment on it.  I'm more curious about what strand of LSD the HRRR ingested.

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Haha go ahead, take your shots.  I'll line up against the wall ;)

 

It wasn't a concern.  Its more like if you see every model tracking the low over New Hampshire and 1 model takes it over the Benchmark.  You comment on it.  I'm more curious about what strand of LSD the HRRR ingested.

I despise the HRRR
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I despise the HRRR

 

Obviously you go with the ECM/GGEM/RGEM/NAM before the HRRR...its just fascinating how and why its doing that.  Last hour it was 0.5", this hour its 0.3", haha.  The Euro and GGEM has close to that amount falling in one hour later tonight.

 

I'm also searching for things to talk about in the dead time between the start of the event, lol.

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