JC-CT Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You don't like it because you don't like longitude storms for obvious reasons. To simply write this off when any solution is still on the table and say noone in SNE is getting snow is foolish at this stage He may have a better chance at snow from this than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Even the 18z GFS from yesterday was mainly cold rain to an inch or two of snow on the backside for Kevin. If that excites you, go for it, but right now that solution has no support whatsoever. And I disagree completely that the clipper is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You don't like it because you don't like longitude storms for obvious reasons. To simply write this off when any solution is still on the table and say noone in SNE is getting snow is foolish at this stage Yes, that's it. If I can't have snow..nobody can. All of us have stated why it's a long shot. You wrap your hand around these ridiculous outcomes all the time. Maybe you get an inch? Oh boy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Even the 18z GFS from yesterday was mainly cold rain to an inch or two of snow on the backside for Kevin. If that excites you, go for it, but right now that solution has no support whatsoever. And I disagree completely that the clipper is dead. If this doesn't blow up there is no clipper. Period. And yes I get excited about potential of 1-3 inches of snow. Just as you did about your 1/2 inch last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If this doesn't blow up there is no clipper. Period. And yes I get excited about potential of 1-3 inches of snow. Just as you did about your 1/2 inch last night If this had a legit shot at 1-3", then there would be more discussion...the 1-3" scenario is a longshot itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 If this had a legit shot at 1-3", then there would be more discussion...the 1-3" scenario is a longshot itself.Ok well IMO it's about 50/50. You guys aren't expecting any snow. I'll keep watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If this doesn't blow up there is no clipper. Period. And yes I get excited about potential of 1-3 inches of snow. Just as you did about your 1/2 inch last night Awesome, I really hope you get your 1-3" and we're wrong, but I don't see it. I get excited about realistic outcomes, not 1 in 20 hail mary shots on the backside of what will likely be a cold rainstorm. And I'd think this not blowing up gives the clipper more room to amplify, something like the EURO solution will squash it under the confluence and you don't want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z GFS looks a little icy for western MA, central MA... but its over pretty soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The thread title is perfect. Kevin had a dream alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Sugarloaf / Sunday River get some goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The thread title is perfect. Kevin had a dream alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Sugarloaf / Sunday River get some goods Yes, They have been getting the goods other then last nights Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Sugarloaf / Sunday River get some goods Them over to the Whites....maybe N Greens if this ends up a bit west....are the spots that could see some real snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Sugarloaf / Sunday River get some goods I'll be up there tomorrow night to Monday afternoon, should hopefully be a good time. They need the snow pretty badly up there, a lot of base on the trails but there's still a crust from the 1/3 mess that's making all of the off trail stuff out for now. 6" of paste would go a long way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yes, They have been getting the goods other then last nights Euro run I'm def interested to see which suite wins out / caves here. My money is on the European taxes at work, although maybe with this new upgrade it could do better... Either way, I get 40F rain, or 33F rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The thread title is perfect. Kevin had a dream alright. He had a "wet" dream but it was really a wet dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Awesome, I really hope you get your 1-3" and we're wrong, but I don't see it. I get excited about realistic outcomes, not 1 in 20 hail mary shots on the backside of what will likely be a cold rainstorm. And I'd think this not blowing up gives the clipper more room to amplify, something like the EURO solution will squash it under the confluence and you don't want that. The clipper is sheared by the Euro since it cuts so far west and the ULL squashes it. What you want is what the Ens do and develop it SE of SNE and dig the H5 and then move it NE. So you get snow on backside and clipper still has room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 18z gfs last night was probably one of the better case scenarios for this system, and even that is highly unlikely This is just another rainstorm in winter 14-15. Will be nice to get a deluge and wash all the salt off cars and roads. Maybe some flip to a sloppy coating on the backside. If thats what you live for, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 timing would have to be impeccable for anyone to see more than a coating outside of possibly the Berks and Manadnocks. If it phases too quickly and the trough goes negative too soon, it will cut inland,but if it stays a more neutral tilted trough with a weaker surface reflection then the antecedent air mass will be too warm and the storm center will not be strong enough to pull down the cold air from higher in the atmosphere and from the west in enough time. it's not impossible but definitely about as thread the needle as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Them over to the Whites....maybe N Greens if this ends up a bit west....are the spots that could see some real snow out of this. To be honest I'm totally fine with this staying away from here. 12z GFS is perfect...00z EURO was scary. MLK weekend, third biggest period of the ski season business wise. Don't need any weather events. Even snowstorms, this crowd is a fair weather crowd. Personally I always want a snowstorm, but if there's a time for a whiff it's this weekend. Rain would be scary but luckily it would be the lowest volume day for ski resorts on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 is some of the ice gonna melt around the house and on the sidewalks i hope? bc then its a win!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z GGEM has shifted west from 0z and cold, More of an anafrontal wave until the low develops over DE Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 There's Kevin's 1-3" on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Certainly not a lock..but also certainly in the realm of possibilities. To rule snow out is/was foolish..just as counting on it to 100% happen is foolish. Let's see how far East the Euro moves today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z UKIE, Can't see in between hr 96 and hr 120 but if you draw a line it looks like the low tracks thru DE Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 it still looks fairly pedestrian on the Canadian, doesn't even throw any precip west of 91, more like a coating to an inch and not 1-3. I'm not rooting against this but I would like to see something a little juicier and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 it still looks fairly pedestrian on the Canadian, doesn't even throw any precip west of 91, more like a coating to an inch and not 1-3. I'm not rooting against this but I would like to see something a little juicier and colder. Does not develop the low until late once its in DE Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 this thing is more than likely going to be a POS. it's very likely to have almost all of the precip out ahead of the wave and very little on the backside of the low until the thing is far more mature and far north of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 this thing is more than likely going to be a POS. it's very likely to have almost all of the precip out ahead of the wave and very little on the backside of the low until the thing is far more mature and far north of SNE. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 this thing is more than likely going to be a POS. it's very likely to have almost all of the precip out ahead of the wave and very little on the backside of the low until the thing is far more mature and far north of SNE. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.