CT Valley Snowman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Euro is a inland track with over Long Island and Central/ Eastern Mass and amped. PF country looks like a paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yeah the Euro and GFS are pretty much rain for all now... even up through VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yeah the Euro and GFS are pretty much rain for all now... even up through VT BTV went with a Winter Storm Watch for 4-8/6-10", mentioning possibilities of heavier amounts. Boundary layer temperatures and surface temperatures will determine exact precipitation type but with the latest runs of both the NAM and European model (ecmwf) trending colder it would suggest the potential for a heavy snow event over The Greens and Champlain Valley. By 18z Sunday the surface trough will have developed along the Virginia coastline under strong converging low level flow. This will generate ample low to middle level moisture which will feed directly into the region. As the trough tracks north it will close off forming a coastal low pressure system Sunday evening just off the middle Atlantic coastline by 00z Monday. Thermal profiles show that as the first precipitation begins to fall the surface zero and 925 zero temperatures will be just to the north and west of the region so likely over the lower terrain the initial precipitation over southern and central Vermont will fall as a rain/snow mix with the higher terrain looking at snow initially. Between 00z and 06z Monday the area will see strong 850-700mb frontogenetic forcing which will drive moderate to heavy snowfall across The Greens and into the Champlain Valley. That will continue towards 12z as the higher terrain in The Greens will see potentially 6-10 inches over a 12 hour window through Monday morning. By 18z the upper level trough will become more positively tilted as the surface low continues to wrap up. This will lead to orographic snowfall accumulations over The Greens and the Adirondacks as the flow shifts to northwest flow behind the low. Snowfall accumulations due to the orographic wrap around flow will likely be in the 1-3 inch range. By Monday evening the coastal low will have moved into the Canadian Maritimes and the main precipitation shield will have exited the region however under the continued northwest flow there should still be enough low level moisture to squeeze out a dusting to 1 inch of upslope snow over the northern greens. I opted to lean on the European model (ecmwf) and NAM blend as there was more run to run consistency on timing and intensity over the GFS. There will be a very strong thermal gradient with this system and current profiles suggest it will fall somewhere over the New Hampshire/Maine border. If the trend continues of the European model (ecmwf) and NAM being slightly colder then it would suggest even heavier snowfall totals than currently forecasted. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 BTV went with a Winter Storm Watch for 4-8/6-10", mentioning possibilities of heavier amounts. Boundary layer temperatures and surface temperatures will determine exact precipitation type but with the latest runs of both the NAM and European model (ecmwf) trending colder it would suggest the potential for a heavy snow event over The Greens and Champlain Valley. By 18z Sunday the surface trough will have developed along the Virginia coastline under strong converging low level flow. This will generate ample low to middle level moisture which will feed directly into the region. As the trough tracks north it will close off forming a coastal low pressure system Sunday evening just off the middle Atlantic coastline by 00z Monday. Thermal profiles show that as the first precipitation begins to fall the surface zero and 925 zero temperatures will be just to the north and west of the region so likely over the lower terrain the initial precipitation over southern and central Vermont will fall as a rain/snow mix with the higher terrain looking at snow initially. Between 00z and 06z Monday the area will see strong 850-700mb frontogenetic forcing which will drive moderate to heavy snowfall across The Greens and into the Champlain Valley. That will continue towards 12z as the higher terrain in The Greens will see potentially 6-10 inches over a 12 hour window through Monday morning. By 18z the upper level trough will become more positively tilted as the surface low continues to wrap up. This will lead to orographic snowfall accumulations over The Greens and the Adirondacks as the flow shifts to northwest flow behind the low. Snowfall accumulations due to the orographic wrap around flow will likely be in the 1-3 inch range. By Monday evening the coastal low will have moved into the Canadian Maritimes and the main precipitation shield will have exited the region however under the continued northwest flow there should still be enough low level moisture to squeeze out a dusting to 1 inch of upslope snow over the northern greens. I opted to lean on the European model (ecmwf) and NAM blend as there was more run to run consistency on timing and intensity over the GFS. There will be a very strong thermal gradient with this system and current profiles suggest it will fall somewhere over the New Hampshire/Maine border. If the trend continues of the European model (ecmwf) and NAM being slightly colder then it would suggest even heavier snowfall totals than currently forecasted. && Yeah I read that AFD and didn't really see what they were talking about - at least for C VT. Looked pretty mild to me and even a touch warmer than yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 925 temps are mild, but 850 temps are just below 0C over the Spine. It will be close..maybe one of those events where weird terrain mesoscale features will causes some funky and localized precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 925 temps are mild, but 850 temps are just below 0C over the Spine. It will be close..maybe one of those events where weird terrain mesoscale features will causes some funky and localized precip types. Yeah well I'm leaning towards 12" at the picnic tables and nothing in town except 1-3" backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yeah well I'm leaning towards 12" at the picnic tables and nothing in town except 1-3" backside. I think the high el's there probably will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 PF crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I just have to find the humor in the days and days of below temperatures then a day of rain and then back into the freezer. Low teens Saturday night -> rain Sunday night -> low teens Monday night. Hopefully I see some snow up in Pinkham Notch this weekend. -> -> Exactly my thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Seems like some FZDZ could occur near dawn tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Seems like some FZDZ could occur near dawn tomorrow? I think so - could be straight FZRA out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Nam looks like it starts us briefly with wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I think so - could be straight FZRA out this way. Bit of a WTF when I saw BUFKIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Looks like it goes to rain pretty quick shouldnt be much of an issue Bit of a WTF when I saw BUFKIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I think so - could be straight FZRA out this way.seems likely and as I said yesterday weenie snows might break out ahead from WAA for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 This is getting real ugly for the northern areas, 12z GFS look a tic or two west of the 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 waste of digging. imagine if we had a -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Gfs is crap for pretty much everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 waste of digging. imagine if we had a -nao Then we would be in a universe which is not our own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yeah GFS is hideous even up toward PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yeah GFS is hideous even up toward PF0.6" snow after 1.4" rain at MVL, LOL.Summits showing 12" snow though after an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Luckily someone said less amped and progressive was the way to go this season...especially since we've been in such a suppressed pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yeah GFS is hideous even up toward PFhmm I would say that run is pretty solid isothermal snow thump for Vt elevation as heights crash after an initial ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 hmm I would say that run is pretty solid isothermal snow thump for Vt elevation as heights crash after an initial ice I don't see much if any ice except maybe 3000ft at the top of the cold dome right under the inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I don't see much if any ice except maybe 3000ft at the top of the cold dome right under the inversion.Congrats on the Sierra cement foot with another 3-6 upslope pow by Monday. Should be a busy time for Ski Patrol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Lets not put lipstick on a pig, this storm fits the season (so far) to a T I will have my rain gauge handy @ wildcat on monday (at least good skiing sunday) but monday will be pure shiat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Lets not put lipstick on a pig, this storm fits the season (so far) to a T I will have my rain gauge handy @ wildcat on monday (at least good skiing sunday) but monday will be pure shiat Places like MRG could see 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 How much liquid we talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I bet Wildcat flips and nails 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I bet Wildcat flips and nails 8-10 Crossing fingers steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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