powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Its maybe about a half inch of qpf for the Greens now. Prob like a 4-6" type paste event. lol read my mind. Still it's going to bounce around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 The zone of appreciable snowfall will be real narrow but verbatim we could do 3-6" on the EURO with around a half inch QPF total. The upslope in NVT could be the main event. Like we said. Enjoy your snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Don't think that has been in question here, My focus is NW Maine Not if that hideous 12z gfs were to verify. Clayton Lake with 2.5" of 33F rain in 15 hr, Greenville upper 30s with 3"+? Riders would need to stick to ridgeline trails for a while. Bizarre how gfs went from 1"+ qpf at RUM on yesterday's runs, to 0.06" for 06z, then 3.3" just 6 hr later. Cover-your-eyes awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Thanks guys. When would the upslope typically kick in? During the day on Monday? We'll be at Sugarbush, which I know doesn't do quite as well and Stowe/Jay for upslope, but does get some, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Like we said. Enjoy your snow hes on record saying he doesn't want any snow this weekend to scare away the touristas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I would bet against it...but I'm not sure you can discount it. I see scenarios where it can happen. 00z Euro was pretty close actually. We'll see what 12z does. Yeah I feel much better with the EURO staying east. If that ticked west and the UKMET west, GFS made a huge jump west...would've been more worrisome but I think the EURO is finally figuring it out. I'd just ride that model for now. Last nights 00z was a big red flag when all other models went to glorified FROPA. I actually followed the other guidance and advised no storm at our OPs meeting, lol. Guess who looks like a clown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Thanks guys. When would the upslope typically kick in? During the day on Monday? We'll be at Sugarbush, which I know doesn't do quite as well and Stowe/Jay for upslope, but does get some, I think. should be pretty sweet stuff at Sugarbush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 hes on record saying he doesn't want any snow this weekend to scare away the touristas. Fair weather crowd. Big business. Sunny and a high of 30F please, lol. Bring the storm in on Tuesday and let's play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah I feel much better with the EURO staying east. If that ticked west and the UKMET west, GFS made a huge jump west...would've been more worrisome but I think the EURO is finally figuring it out. I'd just ride that model for now. Last nights 00z was a big red flag when all other models went to glorified FROPA. I actually followed the other guidance and advised no storm at our OPs meeting, lol. Guess who looks like a clown now. Well there's still a chance you could come out looking ok...it wasn't that far away from being very little qpf on the Euro. What an ugly system though for model guidance. They've struggled with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Not if that hideous 12z gfs were to verify. Clayton Lake with 2.5" of 33F rain in 15 hr, Greenville upper 30s with 3"+? Riders would need to stick to ridgeline trails for a while. I have my doubts the GFS will verify anything at this time, For down this way, Its time to turn towards the mid week clipper next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Like we said. Enjoy your snow If we are giving out 72-84 hour congrats, Enjoy yours too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Fair weather crowd. Big business. Sunny and a high of 30F please, lol. Bring the storm in on Tuesday and let's play. 976 over quebec, yea fair to say upslopey and wind holds with temps dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Euro is still >0C at 925 hpa for most of Vermont. Probably paste verbatim but it's definitely a warm solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I still maintain that everything would have to break right for the interior to see more than a coating to 1 with the exception of the northern Berks and northern ORH where someone could sneak in a bit higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I still maintain that everything would have to break right for the interior to see more than a coating to 1 with the exception of the northern Berks and northern ORH where someone could sneak in a bit higher You'd need like a GFS soltuion a bit southeast to get even advisory snows into the higher terrain of SNE...I'm pretty doubtful of that. The weaker frontal wave idea (like the Euro) pretty much guarantees no snow for SNE except for some wet flakes at the end if that ends up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah I feel much better with the EURO staying east. If that ticked west and the UKMET west, GFS made a huge jump west...would've been more worrisome but I think the EURO is finally figuring it out. I'd just ride that model for now. Last nights 00z was a big red flag when all other models went to glorified FROPA. I actually followed the other guidance and advised no storm at our OPs meeting, lol. Guess who looks like a clown now. You can see from the set up how tiny differences in storm track effect the timing of the phasing and this makes huge differences with the final outcome. Solutions ranging from FROPA with some warm moisture all the way to spun up coastal storms means this thing rides on the razors edge. The storm is essentially balancing on the tip of a pencil - we all know it will fall the question is in which direction. To me it looks like a late phase is the most likely outcome - hopefully throwing some moisture north and west from the center of the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 You'd need like a GFS soltuion a bit southeast to get even advisory snows into the higher terrain of SNE...I'm pretty doubtful of that. The weaker frontal wave idea (like the Euro) pretty much guarantees no snow for SNE except for some wet flakes at the end if that ends up verifying. yes I agree. It is looking more and more likely that everything will not break right so we might as well root for the system to be weaker and progressive and get the heck out of the way and give enough spacing and weaker confluence to allow the clipper to organize itself and intensify into a solid advisory event for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 You'd need like a GFS soltuion a bit southeast to get even advisory snows into the higher terrain of SNE...I'm pretty doubtful of that. The weaker frontal wave idea (like the Euro) pretty much guarantees no snow for SNE except for some wet flakes at the end if that ends up verifying. The silver lining with the weaker frontal passage is that it leaves room for the clipper to amplify. It seems like a win-win solution to me for Central and Northern VT. Either they get some snow on Monday or they get some snow with the next system. Hopefully we don't roll a snake eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 You would like the GFS to be right for once if that verifies I will be catching the first lift at Wildcat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I moved the GFS vs old GFS discussion to banter Though now that I think about it, it probably could have been applicable in the model thread too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Anyone care to post some weenie maps? I miss the old days when maps used to fly around all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Anyone care to post some weenie maps? I miss the old days when maps used to fly around all over the place. That would require snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Lol I was thinking the same thing I cant even find any That would require snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Alas even the DGEX is letting is down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Alas even the DGEX is letting is down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 My point and click forecast for Sunday night is calling for 3 to 7 inches of snow,. Here is the BTV AFD: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COASTSUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIREAND CONTINUING NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A VERYSHARP GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ANDWHILE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY IN THE DATA...THE TRENDSEEMS TO BE FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAKING IT MORE FAVORABLEFOR SNOW...BUT LESS PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME COULD SEE AN INCHOR TWO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSSVERMONT WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. And Gray: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GYX&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAYAND THIS WILL AID IN SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVENORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A JUICY ONE WITH PLENTY OF QPF. HIGHUNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUNDAY AND SUNDAYNIGHT. THEREFORE...HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN PRECIPITATIONTYPE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION ISTHAT SOUTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE MAINLYRAIN. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY...THE COLUMNWILL BE COLDER...AND PERHAPS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR HEAVYSNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERNMOST ZONES. THEREFORE IT/S POSSIBLE THATWINTER STORM WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THEMOUNTAINS TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGHTO DO SO. JUST A 25-50 MILE SHIFT IN LOW TRACK COULD MEAN THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN HEAVY SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN.THE MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOONAND NIGHT AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN AN INCH+QPF...SOME URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD ARISE ON THE COASTALPLAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Anyone care to post some weenie maps? I miss the old days when maps used to fly around all over the place.Look at how much snow we would be getting if it weren't for the laws of thermodynamics: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Alas even the DGEX is letting is downIt occurs entirely within the NAM now. Why would it be on the DGEX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Congrats Klw...you may be in the best spot of anyone in higher terrain of NE VT. 18z GFS doesn't look too much different than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Congrats Klw...you may be in the best spot of anyone in higher terrain of NE VT. 18z GFS doesn't look too much different than 12z. maybe the 850 line is a tad east up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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