A-L-E-K Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Dujuan is looking very Hurricane Isabel'ish. Large 33nm wide eye inside a big donut CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 Yep, similar latitudes and environments too, and possibly similar intensities. You can clearly see Dujuan approach Taiwan from radar out of the southern Ryukyus now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Dujuan is looking very Hurricane Isabel'ish. Large 33nm wide eye inside a big donut CDO. It does look somewhat annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Josh is in Taiwan now. Heading towards a small coastal city called Su-ao before deciding where else to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The IR colors have warmed a bit but the eye and symmetry remain excellent. Took a jog north, so Su-ao may very well get in the eye. Dejaun will likely be just as bad as Soudelor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 Japanese radar shows what appears to be concentric eyewalls, which could account for the warming of the CDO. The highest gust I've seen so far was 112 kt (57.5 m/s) from Hateruma, one of the southernmost Ryukyus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 Are you kidding me?! That's 100 kt ten-minute sustained/158 kt gust! *EDIT for radar frame at the time of the gust. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/09/28/watch-typhoon-dujuan-roar-ashore-in-taiwan-with-violent-140-mph-winds/ James Reynolds in Suao measured a 960mb pressure. Judging from the graph, the pressure looks like it rose from 961 to 981 in about a half hour, at one point it looks like a 10mb jump in ~5 minutes! Also reports of 23" of rain from Taipei, not good for a major city and it's still raining there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Typhoon Mujigae has undergone rapid intensification upon nearing landfall in China. This looks like a category 4 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Typhoon Mujigae has undergone rapid intensification upon nearing landfall in China. This looks like a category 4 storm. mujigae-avn2.gif Was forecast to make landfall as a 70kt storm but came ashore at 115kt so quite the bust there and goes to show how much work still needs to be done on intensity forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Choi-Wan is set to become a monster hybrid Sandy like storm. It's going to make landfall in eastern Russia north of Japan after it becomes extra tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted October 12, 2015 Author Share Posted October 12, 2015 We now have invests 91W passing through the Marianas and 92W passing through the Marshalls. With the former expected to sit and stew in the Philippine Sea for several days and the other near 10*N in the traditional El Nino formation zone, it wouldn't surprise me if one or both of these invests develop into a very powerful typhoon. 91W: 92W: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Tropical Storm Koppu (the one located at 138East) is expected to become a 120 kt typhoon near Luzon Island Philippines (see JTWC). The HWRF predicts the SLP to be a staggeringly low 888mb (See HWRF 93 hour forecast) while not too far from Luzon Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted October 15, 2015 Author Share Posted October 15, 2015 Koppu is now classified as a typhoon by JMA and appears to be organizing rather quickly now. Even if it doesn't get as strong as expected though, it could still be a flooding disaster for the Philippine isle of Luzon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 Here we see this a couple of days ago in this time-smoothed animation just creeping into the right hand side of the field of view. Animation is courtesy of Dan Delany. Sunset (last evening local time) on the developing typhoon is here with 2km resolution full-color full-disk Himawari imagery: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/hi_res/himawari-8/full_disk_ahi_true_color/full_disk_ahi_true_color_20151015083000.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Recent sunset visible image is here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/hi_res/himawari-8/full_disk_ahi_true_color/full_disk_ahi_true_color_20151016083000.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Current IR animation is here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=himawari-8/himawari-8_band_13_sector_06&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 Eye is trying to clear out now. This is going to be a monstrous landfall, and then it's going to linger. Very bad situation for Luzon unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 The high resolution 12z ECMWF is spitting out over 98 inches of rain at Baguio (RPUB). Not sure I have a word to describe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Two fairly wide-area tropical cyclones, Koppu and Champi. Champi should be rapidly intensifying from 65kt to 80kt this evening. Koppu mentioned by several posts before this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2012/08/philippines-doppler-radar-noah.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Nice RI before landfall, latest raw T up to 7.0, Estimated intensity 926.9mb and 132kt. Looks like the eye is starting to move on shore now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 On the CIRA/RAMMB animation it looks like vortices spinning within the eyewall. Here is a still frame. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=himawari-8/himawari-8_band_13_sector_06&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Good thing its landfalling in a spot where damn near nobody lives (for good reason, given the frequency of typhoons and earthquakes there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Give Baguio's location (upslope flow being at 1500 m), previous rainfall totals from TCs here, and the slow movement of Koppu, the enormous rainfall amounts shown by the ECMWF appear plausible. I first thought that the 2500 mm (98") total sounded overdone, but then I thought of this event. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/flora1963filledrainblk.gif So the ECMWF's forecast is within what we have observed! SYNOPs are available every hour for Baguio (98328) so it will be interesting to see this event unfold. http://www.ogimet.com/display_synops2.php?lang=en&lugar=98328&tipo=ALL&ord=REV&nil=SI&fmt=html&ano=2015&mes=10&day=17&hora=02&anof=2015&mesf=10&dayf=18&horaf=02&send=send Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Yes, Baguio had about 85" during an event in 1911 IIRC. A decoded summary is here, and Baguio had 225mm in the 24 hours ending 12Z today. http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=Phil&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2015&mes=10&day=18&hora=12&ndays=1&Send=send Latest satellite loop suggests the typhoon is continuing to move westward, so this could cut down the rainfall totals. It's already off the west coast of Luzon, so we'll see how fast it turns north. UPDATE: As of Oct 19 the low level center still is closer to the coast. Baguio is up to about 730mm of rain total at 12Z. Here are the daily totals: 10/17 3.0mm 10/18 225.0mm 10/19 501.0mm 10/20 447.4mm 10/21 35.4mm ------------------- Total 1211.8mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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