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2015 Western Pacific Typhoon Season


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Should be hitting Taiwan Friday as a CAT2/3. Luckily most of Taiwan's population is on the west side and the terrain should protect them somewhat from the winds and rain.

 

They need a cyclone that hits from the southwest to get winds into the populated areas and a storm that stalls near the northern part of the Island to get flooding rains in the populated areas.

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Not like it matters much, but the refusal to categorize ex-Molave because it might be -gasp- not 100% tropical is really stupid.  In the Atlantic Basin it would be categorized as a subtropical or tropical storm in about 10 seconds. Tons of convection and an obvious low-level  circulation.

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I do agree. It's currently beneath the TUTT axis, but it's not like it hasn't been tangled with upper level features all its life. JTWC doesn't issue advisories on subtropical cyclones, which is the reason why they discontinued Molave's advisories in the first place, but I would argue that Molave is at least as tropical as it has been all its life if not more so.

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I could watch that Taiwan tornado video 100 times and not grow tired of it, it has to be the best spin-up video from a tropical cyclone ever. One of the best twister videos of the year in general too. The woman who is sitting upright on the roadway after it passes probably got pulled out of the vehicle that was blown away. Its just something that hasn't been captured on video before.

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Yep, been watching things set up over the past few days. JTWC is forecasting rapid intensification with both Goni and Atsani within the next few days, and JMA is pretty aggressive with their first forecasts for the tropical storms too. Who knows, this might even end up being an Ivan/Joan '97 type pairing. I'd probably lean more aggressive with forecasts myself. Model progs have been consistently making both storms very intense (particularly Atsani), and the WPac has been mad money all year. I'm quite curious to see how strong they both get.

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