1900hurricane Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Looks like the Western Pacific is getting started fairly early this year. JMA has named Mekkhala, the first tropical storm of the year. The storm is located west of the Philippines and could impact the country in the coming days. JTWC is forecasting intensification only to that of a mid-grade tropical storm, but the potential may be there for a cat 1 or possibly 2 typhoon if the storm can stay south of the stronger shear. Outflow is quite good north of the system and a core may soon start to build now that the center is making its way beneath the deepest convection. Mekkhala could be a fun little system to track to start off the 2015 WPac Season! *EDIT: here are a few self-updating images from the basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Despite JMA naming the system, JTWC has been reluctant to upgrade Mekkhala to tropical storm strength today but finally did for their latest update. Even when the convection was a bit displaced from the center earlier today, the circulation seemed vigorous enough to support an upgrade to a 35 kt tropical storm. As it stands now, I'd personally rate Mekkhala to have 45-50 kt (1 min) sustained winds. (This pass is several hours old now but the most recent good one I found) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 JTWC has upgraded Mekkhala to 65 kt, making it our first typhoon of the year. The storm has been looking fairly impressive today with a center co-located with a very cold CDO featuring overshooting tops with temperatures in the vicinity of -90*C. Outflow has also looked pretty good, ventilating the storm well enough to maintain those very cold cloudtops. Intensification will probably come to a halt soon enough though, as Mekkhala is growing ever closer to the Philippines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 An eye has started to develop based on microwave imagery. It'll be an interesting situation with Pope Francis having an outdoor mass in Tacloban City (the same city of Haiyan infamy) today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Incredible image of Typhoon Mekkhata showing cloud top temperatures near -100C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Yeah, that's pretty incredible. A big, deep Hadley Cell is really dominating that portion of the WPac right now which is helping the cloudtops get so tall and cold. Pope Francis is having mass in Tacloban right now and it is being broadcast on YouTube. I'll go ahead and link it below in case anyone is interested in checking out the conditions there. It's been quite wet and gusty at times too, but overall not too bad as of yet, but that's to be expected with the core of Mekkhala still offshore. To me, it looks like the typhoon will pass a fair distance north of that area. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orzsc5HS0gg&pxtry=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Incredible image of Typhoon Mekkhata showing cloud top temperatures near -100C! maybe I'm reading the satellite temp scale wrong, or getting suspect data from U-Wyoming on the latest soundings in the vicinity of the storm in the central Philippines and at Palau. But those soundings are saying the coldest temps are ~ -87 to -88C at ~ 17.8km (data indicated below, as the converted text file). And if i am reading the color table correctly, that hints at closer to -92C to -93C, which looks a bit closer to reality. i don't think we're even close to -100C, imho. Palau data: http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=pac&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2015&MONTH=01&FROM=1700&TO=1700&STNM=91408 Tanay data (98433): http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=pac&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2015&MONTH=01&FROM=1700&TO=1700&STNM=98433 Lagaspi (RPMP 98444): http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=seasia&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2015&MONTH=01&FROM=1700&TO=1700&STNM=98444 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 maybe I'm reading the satellite temp scale wrong, or getting suspect data from U-Wyoming on the latest soundings in the vicinity of the storm in the central Philippines and at Palau. But those soundings are saying the coldest temps are ~ -87 to -88C at ~ 17.8km (data indicated below, as the converted text file). And if i am reading the color table correctly, that hints at closer to -92C to -93C, which looks a bit closer to reality. i don't think we're even close to -100C, imho. Palau data: http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=pac&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2015&MONTH=01&FROM=1700&TO=1700&STNM=91408 Tanay data (98433): http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=pac&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2015&MONTH=01&FROM=1700&TO=1700&STNM=98433 Lagaspi (RPMP 98444): http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=seasia&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2015&MONTH=01&FROM=1700&TO=1700&STNM=98444 If we're looking at the CDO overall, then certainly not. However, the coldest part (-100.4*C per a tweet I have linked below from Scott Bachmeier, who runs the CIMSS blog) appears to be confined to a very small area in the overshoot. It's hard to tell without grabbing actual data points off of the image, but looking at the brightest colors near the center of the overshooting complex, -100.4*C looks like it could be reasonable to me. https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/556251551275421697 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 If we're looking at the CDO overall, then certainly not. However, the coldest part (-100.4*C per a tweet I have linked below from Scott Bachmeier, who runs the CIMSS blog) appears to be confined to a very small area in the overshoot. It's hard to tell without grabbing actual data points off of the image, but looking at the brightest colors near the center of the overshooting complex, -100.4*C looks like it could be reasonable to me. https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/556251551275421697 that higher resolution shot makes me a bit more of a believer. but if possible, i would like to see the actual data points just to be sure. sorry if i'm a bit of a skeptic on this particular number. but yea, i wasn't integrating the whole CDO, as that would probably only integrate to near -90. i was trying to match the shades as best as i can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 A new system appears to be organizing to the SE of Guam near 10*N, 158*E. Designated 94W, the system has had nice cyclonic turning for most of today and appears to have worked that vorticity down to the surface per a 2120Z SSMIS pass. The JMA has already declared this a tropical depression and JTWC appears likely to do so fairly soon as well, having issued a TCFA at 2230Z. Models are taking 94W into the vicinity of the Marianas, generally recurving the system near or east of there and potentially posing a threat. The next name on the list for tropical storms is Higos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Definitely a clear low level center on visible imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 02W has now been declared by JTWC, and the system is looking rather good for a depression. A 1346Z microwave pass shows a consolidated center with a good amount of banding developing. I'd probably rate intensity at 35-40 kt personally. Track looks to be tricky in the near term. The GFS continues a NW motion and recurves 02W into a break in subtropical ridging well east of the Marianas. However, other guidance closes the temporary break within 24 hours, forcing the system west. With some of the 06Z GFS Ensemble members wavering, I'm inclined to believe the western guidance split toted by the models with 4D variable assimilation is more likely to verify. Verification of the western track philosophy could mean a threat to Guam and the Marianas several days down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 JMA has upgraded to Tropical Storm Higos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Higos has since been upgraded to a typhoon by JMA and JTWC, becoming the first February typhoon analyzed by at least one of these agencies since 1986. Higos has been developing an eyewall and the first signs of an eye are beginning to show up on visible imagery. Higos poses no threat to the Marianas and should recurve well east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 I figure a cat-5, even if in the West Pac deserves at least 1 post. Super Typhoon Maysak is heading towards the Philippines just like everything else these days. Fortunately there appears to be a good model consensus of environmental conditions becoming less favorable and Maysak should weaken. Still, looking mighty impressive upon first light of day out there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Astronauts aboard the ISS took hundreds of photos of Maysak while near peak intensity. Here are a few of my favorites. For the last one, I downloaded the raw file and reprocessed it myself, as the original was a bit flat and overexposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The JTWC forecast for Typhoon Noul is 110 knots (126mph) just east of the Philippines in two days, then making landfall. Some intensity guidance shows up to 120 kts. That could be a pretty dangerous landfalling cyclone on eastern Luzon, Philippines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Noul really getting its act together after a relatively lackluster approach to the PHP. Very impressive over the last few hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 It looks like Noul just barely missed landfall on the northeastern tip of Luzon. The eyewall was definitely over land, so it counts as a "direct hit", but the precise center of the eye seems to have stayed offshore. After yesterday's expedited intensification, this morning's collapse has been equally remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 10, 2015 Share Posted May 10, 2015 It looks like Noul just barely missed landfall on the northeastern tip of Luzon. The eyewall was definitely over land, so it counts as a "direct hit", but the precise center of the eye seems to have stayed offshore. After yesterday's expedited intensification, this morning's collapse has been equally remarkable. Seriously...IR looks terrible right now. The loop is pretty impressive as to how quickly the storm is falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Dolphin about ready to take off, pardon the pun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 13, 2015 Author Share Posted May 13, 2015 Dolphin about ready to take off, pardon the pun. Sure enough, a pinhole eye appears to be developing. Looks like it is about to enter some very impressive rapid intensification, perhaps even meeting the criteria for explosive intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Typhoon watch for Guam, it does have a NOAA weather radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 The official JTWC forecast has Typhoon Dolphin going pretty much right over Guam with 110kt (126mph). some intensity guidance maxes out Typhoon Dolphin at 160kt http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northwestpacific/2015/wp072015/intensity_late/awp07_2015051218_intensity_late.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Dolphin's core is looking more ragged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 No available HWRF or GFDL runs on the NCEP web site... but it's tracking toward a U.S. Territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 No available HWRF or GFDL runs on the NCEP web site... but it's tracking toward a U.S. Territory. Here is the link for the HWRF for the Western Pacific (not sure about GFDL): http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HWRF/WestPacific/index.html Meanwhile, here is the NWS Forecast for Guam for Friday; don't see that very often lol I believe Jim Edds is already in Guam to chase this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 14, 2015 Share Posted May 14, 2015 No available HWRF or GFDL runs on the NCEP web site... but it's tracking toward a U.S. Territory. The GFDL and HWRF are available. NCEP doesn't carry them explicitly on their site though. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HWRF/WestPacific/DOLPHIN07W/ http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/hurricane/gfdl_ensemble/GFE_DEMO_2015.php?STORMID=07W&YMDH=2015051312_DOLPHIN07W∏=H2 HWRF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Typhoon Dolphin headed for the largest island of Guam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Anderson Air Force base with a wind gust to 85 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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