IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 From your euro post, it smells & sounds as if NW NJ may be able to hammer home a few inches of snow. At hour 84 you're still sitting around 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 At hour 84 you're still sitting around 36. BUT what are the 850's and other level temps ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 BUT what are the 850's and other level temps ? At hour 84 850's are near 0 in the city and immediate coast and -1 to -2 West of the GSP. As I've said earlier the only problem layer is the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Please translate for the stupid among us -- meaning me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Please translate for the stupid among us -- meaning me. Never mind. I looked at the maps too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 18z GFS ticked East again. I'm not surprised. It's far less amplified than the Euro. I'll stick with the Euro for now given its consistency and the EPS mean which supported it quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 00z gfs says we stay dry this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 00z gfs says we stay dry this weekend Drier and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 00z gfs says we stay dry this weekend Nam dry also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Nam dry also.cold air is winning. It looks like January may end up more below normal than November. GFS showed a suppression type pattern where it would most likely send snow down south. Hope that doesn't happen. It looks like winter is really taking over instead of having a thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 cold air is winning. It looks like January may end up more below normal than November. GFS showed a suppression type pattern where it would most likely send snow down south. Hope that doesn't happen. It looks like winter is really taking over instead of having a thaw. What? It is not suppression its just timing with phasing. This isnt an overwhelming cold/dry pattern that is suppressed. So many vorts coming across the CONUS the next 7-14 days that some will inevitably turn the corner but this is NOT suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Based on the 0z runs, this possible storm represents the first major qpf "battle" between the ECMWF and the upgraded GFS. Select qpf forecasts for the NYC metro area from the 0z runs: BDR: ECMWF: 1.30"; GFS: 0.01" EWR: ECMWF: 1.31"; GFS: None ISP: ECMWF: 1.10"; GFS: 0.09" NYC: ECMWF: 1.38"; GFS: None Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Thats a huge spread ..would be interesting todays 12z suite ...I know its not a snow threat but from weather stand point interesting..let's see what transfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The 12z NAM shifted well West 06z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The 4k NAM is also West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 A bit out of range but the 12z RGEM looks like it would be in the Euro camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And the 00z JMA shifted West from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 00z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GFS about to cave to euro and deliver quite the soaker to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well, if the Euro is right about this, maybe it's right about Weds clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 1-2" of rain on the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015011612&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well, if the Euro is right about this, maybe it's right about Weds clipper? ahh the good ol transitive property - I wish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Well, if the Euro is right about this, maybe it's right about Weds clipper? It should. The gfs was too far north anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Based on the 0z runs, this possible storm represents the first major qpf "battle" between the ECMWF and the upgraded GFS. Select qpf forecasts for the NYC metro area from the 0z runs: BDR: ECMWF: 1.30"; GFS: 0.01" EWR: ECMWF: 1.31"; GFS: None ISP: ECMWF: 1.10"; GFS: 0.09" NYC: ECMWF: 1.38"; GFS: None looks like we lose with flying colors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 ahh the good ol transitive property - I wish... That, and looking for the silver lining? Also, if this rain storm is bigger and wetter, maybe it'll be better for us down the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And in the GFS's first major test since the upgrade it fails miserably. The Euro really never waivered and all the other modeling began caving at 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 If the 12Z GFS holds, a few inches of snow is possible in sections of NW NJ. Really nice run overall. Heavy, heavy rains over to a mix to a possible thumping snow. Optimistic that the event is not all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And in the GFS's first major test since the upgrade it fails miserably. The Euro really never waivered and all the other modeling began caving at 00z last night. Are you nutz. It had the storm for days, just slightly off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Are you nutz. It had the storm for days, just slightly off shore. GFS? It was dry for the area on the 0z run. Euro never waivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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