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Winters in Charlotte that began with no snow in December AND January

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

So, here we sit on January 13th with nary a snowflake/sleet pellet on any model out there for the Queen City for at least the next 16 days. These stats show the totals for the rest of the years when December and January consecutively have no flakes or pellets.This has occurred in 11 winters since 1878. Now, it is a little presumptuous to say there will be no snow or sleet for the rest of the month but quite frankly, the pattern doesn't support any. I've listed the winters list as follows:

1879-1880- 3.7"
1889-1890- 1"

1900-1901- 1"

1910-1911- .1"

1922-1923- .2"

1923-1924- 4.7"

1931-1932- .2"

1933-1934- .4"

2011-2014- .4"

1946-1947- 1.3"

1940-1941- 4.1" 

 

If you average those out, the average total is 1.39. 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

So, here we sit on January 13th with nary a snowflake/sleet pellet on any model out there for the Queen City for at least the next 16 days. These stats show the totals for the rest of the years when December and January consecutively have no flakes or pellets.This has occurred in 11 winters since 1878. Now, it is a little presumptuous to say there will be no snow or sleet for the rest of the month but quite frankly, the pattern doesn't support any. I've listed the winters list as follows:

1879-1880- 3.7"

1889-1890- 1"

1900-1901- 1"

1910-1911- .1"

1922-1923- .2"

1923-1924- 4.7"

1931-1932- .2"

1933-1934- .4"

2011-2014- .4"

1946-1947- 1.3"

1940-1941- 4.1"

If you average those out, the average total is 1.39.

I love analogs! I hope this one busts as bad as the winter ones have so far! :(
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

That's not a good look. We've got the record +PDO going for us and we've had a lot of southern stream systems roll through, so those are positives, I guess.

Any idea if those were niño/nina years?

1879-1880- 3.7" MLN

1889-1890- 1" SLN

1900-1901- 1" WEN

1910-1911- .1" MLN

1922-1923- .2" NN

1923-1924- 4.7" WEN

1931-1932- .2" NN

1933-1934- .4" MLN

2011-2012- .4" WLN

1946-1947- 1.3" NP

1940-1941- 4.1" SEN

So, this sample favors Nino's, which averaged a respectable 3.3". I think that's above normal for Feb+, which should be encouraging in itself. Contrast that to Nina's, which averaged only 1.1", and the neutrals, which averaged only 0.6". There were 5 of the 11 in the under 0.5" range. None of these were Nino's or neutral positive, which were all 1"+. That is a good sign.

Regardless, the pattern appears to be looking up for a split flow and a real possibility late month.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Yeah, this great southern stream with its drizzle-superstorms.

I was just trying to find some silver lining. :(

Larry,

Thanks for the stats. Hopefully, this year is an anomaly. Any idea about weak niño years that acted like a nina with record December PDOs and super duper -QBOs? I'll bet those are your big snow producers right there.

Seriously, as you said, the guidance is showing a better pattern evolving, so hopefully we'll see some legitimate storm threats emerge.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

So...you're telling me there's still a chance at 3-4 inches? Sold! I'd take it in a heartbeat and be glad.  I just don't want to get shut out this winter. 

 

Analogs.  I really don't tend to buy into them one way or another.  There's ALWAYS some variable that is different in a paticular year than what's occured in the past.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

You're making a HUGE assumption it's not going to snow between now and the end of the month, in Charlotte. Interesting research, though.

I think it's a fairly reasonable assumption. We've not been in a good pattern, and although the upcoming pattern looks marginally better, it's by no means a great one for southern wintry wx. Even in great patterns, we still often get shafted.
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Clipper love will save the day! :yikes:

Honestly, those numbers are kind of encouraging in a way. They show that the chance of getting completely skunked for the winter is basically nil. Of course, there's always a first for everything.

 

Plus the Nino's in the list actually averaged 3.3" for Feb+. That's not half bad and I think is above normal for Feb+. Someone correct me if I'm wrong about that, please. Two of the three Nino's had 4+". I'd think people would be happy with that.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

Plus the Nino's in the list actually averaged 3.3" for Feb+. That's not half bad and I think is above normal for Feb+. Someone correct me if I'm wrong about that, please. Two of the three Nino's had 4+". I'd think people would be happy with that.

Let's not pretend like we actually have a Nino.
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