Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[csnavywx]

On 2/8/2025 at 12:16 PM, Lowershoresadness said:

what do you see for our region next few weeks?

Southern edge of the Nina battle zone. Some drought busting rains with the occasional nailbiter. Tues/Weds looks decent for Waldorf-Easton-Sussex with some mixing issues for me and you after a solid front end thump. Track looks good, with a slider off of Hatteras, so it's hard for me to get too bearish on that. Small change in thermals or a melt-enhanced mesoscale band could easily bump up totals further south.

[Lowershoresadness]

just went under a warning,  thinking here could make it to 4 or 5 inches but who knows

[SnowtoRain]

It will be interesting to see where the mix line ends up. NAM 3K is pretty aggressive with the mix all the way up the midshore for a period.

[AlexD1990]

39 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a truly scared group in here. I just looked at guidance with the QPF distribution and this is still looking exactly as planned. The most QPF deficient model is the HRRR at range and even that is 1-4” north of I-70, 3-6” Central MD, 4-8” Rt50 on south with even some 8+ possible in Calvert and Northern St Mary’s over into interior lower slower Sussex Co DE. I haven’t seen anything that looks very different. I like what the offices have for WWA and WSW’s across the board. It’s gonna snow! 

Thanks for the shoutout...but its technically Slower Lower lol....they switched them to sell "LSD" merchandise a few years ago..

[csnavywx]

I'll break out BUFKIT for the 18z runs once they're all in.

[AlexD1990]

Just now, csnavywx said:

I'll break out BUFKIT for the 18z runs once they're all in.

You spoil us. But i love it 

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

It will be interesting to see where the mix line ends up. NAM 3K is pretty aggressive with the mix all the way up the midshore for a period.

I don't think there will be any mixing in our area for the first wave tomorrow afternoon through the overnight hours. The following wave right on it heels may begin as snow/ mix Wed morning, but it looks to quickly go to rain without much if any additional accumulation.

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't think there will be any mixing in our area for the first wave tomorrow afternoon through the overnight hours. The following wave right on it heels may begin as snow/ mix Wed morning, but it looks to quickly go to rain without much if any additional accumulation.

Gotta enjoy it while it falls. This has been a great winter compared to climo at least for me, especially with expectations going in. If we can score one more next week, it'll be fantastic.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

Gotta enjoy it while it falls. This has been a great winter compared to climo at least for me, especially with expectations going in. If we can score one more next week, it'll be fantastic.

Yep. it has been clear for awhile this would be a nice WAA thump of snow, immediately followed by a more amplified wave that tracks to our NW with a mild soaking rain. I will get a nice hike in tomorrow evening while its snowing.

[csnavywx]

Intense 700-850mb frontogenesis with this system will probably produce a period of 1-2" rates before changeover. After loading up BUFKIT, it's hard to see how we don't see at least *some* mixing, but the impact will be less for those along and north of a Waldorf-Easton-Sussex DE line. Further south, p-type changes over to sleet around 21-23Z, which will cut down on some of the totals. The warm nose is far enough up into the column that strong lift and melting could enhance an east-west band where p-type could flip several times depending on intensity. One thing is for sure, you'll need to smell the mixing line to get the best totals.

[Lowershoresadness]

9 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Intense 700-850mb frontogenesis with this system will probably produce a period of 1-2" rates before changeover. After loading up BUFKIT, it's hard to see how we don't see at least *some* mixing, but the impact will be less for those along and north of a Waldorf-Easton-Sussex DE line. Further south, p-type changes over to sleet around 21-23Z, which will cut down on some of the totals. The warm nose is far enough up into the column that strong lift and melting could enhance an east-west band where p-type could flip several times depending on intensity. One thing is for sure, you'll need to smell the mixing line to get the best totals.

I love the smell of the mixing line in the morning

[SnowtoRain]

30.9/21.6 low of 24.3, looks like a general 3 to 6". 

[csnavywx]

First flakes falling here. Took a good 2 hours of returns aloft to saturate up.

[csnavywx]

Intensity really ramped up fast. Now heavy snow. Particularly intense mesoscale band starting to establish nearby.

[Lowershoresadness]

first flakes in the bury

[SnowtoRain]

First flakes in Easton down to 36.1 now.

[Lowershoresadness]

heavy snow came in real quick. should be a fun few hours

[grhqofb5]

First flurries in Crofton/Odenton.  34.

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, Lowershoresadness said:

heavy snow came in real quick. should be a fun few hours

Yep. Doing 1"+/hr now. 1.4 total so far.

[csnavywx]

KNUI 111946Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM +SN FG VV004 00/00 A3029 RMK AO2 P0013 T00000000

Some really cracked snowfall rates in that band coming up from the south. .13" liquid in an hour.

[SnowtoRain]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Yep. Doing 1"+/hr now. 1.4 total so far.

Hope to get into that in Easton, but I think your area has been modeled to see the heaviest banding so not sure if it will make it up this way.

[grhqofb5]

Damn, it was flurrying here in Odenton, now completely stopped.  35.

[SnowtoRain]

Flake size and intensity picking up in Easton down to 32

[csnavywx]

21 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Yep. Doing 1"+/hr now. 1.4 total so far.

2.0". Bit of sleet already mixing in.

[SnowtoRain]

5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

2.0". Bit of sleet already mixing in.

Gross

[csnavywx]

Back to all snow and fat quarter-sized aggregates. Rates not as insane but still respectable.

[AlexD1990]

Puking snow in rehoboth

[csnavywx]

Back to 1-2"/hr rates, mixing stopped. Strong lift, frontogen. circulation, and high precip rates have thusfar been pretty successful at cooling and eventually washing out these above-freezing warm nose intrusions.

[SnowtoRain]

Heavy small snowflakes, 29.5, 2 degrees colder than most models, reminds me of the January event so far, around 3"

[csnavywx]

11 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

Heavy small snowflakes, 29.5, 2 degrees colder than most models, reminds me of the January event so far, around 3"

The fact that we got a full night of radiational cooling followed by thick clouds right before sunrise definitely helped in this case.