diatae Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 33 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: Where's everyone at? Starting to look like we cash in on this one Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Right?! I'm liking where we sit for this one. I'm a bit on the edge in La Plata, but in the game. Fine by me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Right?! I'm liking where we sit for this one. I'm a bit on the edge in La Plata, but in the game. Fine by me. I'm just up the road from Rehoboth and I'm starting to think that this could be borderline crippling. Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: I'm just up the road from Rehoboth and I'm starting to think that this could be borderline crippling. Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk I think you're right. It's a helluva storm on every run for your area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Seems pretty clear that the main thread is now a disaster, and likely to remain so....can't blame them too much, I'd be ticked too. Still possible we get skunked too, but at least we have more wiggle room...Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Now half the sub wants to chase over here lol Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Euro seems to have simmered down. Still would be a very nice storm for most of Delmarva, though the trends have me worried. Onward to the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 just got outta work, someone fill me in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So we either get 2 feet...or flurries...Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So we either get 2 feet...or flurries...Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said: just got outta work, someone fill me in Still working out some issues with storm genesis location and time to "ramp up", which will make all the difference in the world. Still, a nice floor for S MD and Ern Shore of 2-4" so far. Considerably higher (6-8") with even a partial phase for the Eastern Shore and gangbusters if we can get the genesis location and speed right (8-12"). Blizz conditions not off the table either (for the coastline), but somewhat lower probability. Will know more by 12z. Will issue a forecast here tomorrow afternoon after I get done doing stuff at work. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This storm has been great for "We should have a pretty good idea with the next set of model runs" only to have no idea after those models run. Could we get a little consensus, please? We almost had it last night with the 0z until the GFS was like "HAHAH" I wish Alex were joking, but flurries to 2 feet sounds about right (though I'm more confident the lower shore and beaches are still going to easily break warning criteria). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, twim19 said: This storm has been great for "We should have a pretty good idea with the next set of model runs" only to have no idea after those models run. Could we get a little consensus, please? We almost had it last night with the 0z until the GFS was like "HAHAH" I wish Alex were joking, but flurries to 2 feet sounds about right (though I'm more confident the lower shore and beaches are still going to easily break warning criteria). It’s just like the old days… pre satellite… many times I ended up shoveling a foot of “partly cloudy”…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I was a teen for the blizzard of '96, but I can keenly recall watching the news the night before the storm hit and BBK (our local legendary forecaster who has long since retired) came on to tell us that we were about to get hit with a major blizzard. I wasn't following models or anything at the time so I don't know if his not telling us sooner was because he didn't know or he was being conservative--I just remember it feeling like a surprise snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Cmon guys. . .we should have a nice storm outta this. Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looking for 6-10" over for Lowershoresadness in the 'bury and eastern shore. 2-6" for the western coast of the Bay (slanted higher southwest). 1-3" west of there. The western side will pick up half or more of their snow from the pre-storm frontogenesis-driven event. I expect that to overperform a bit due to the fact that the lift is co-located across the DGZ and persists for hours before the coastal blows up. Those kinds of events are often a bit sneaky: they start early and can produce healthy dendrites and aggregates. Surface temps will start a smidgen warm, but ground temps are cold. It won't take long to get the boundary layer to cool off, unlike last week. Subject to some revision due to where the coastal actually ends up setting up. If the 850/700mb lows end up a bit further NW and we stay SSE/SE at 500mb, totals will get bumped. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 going to be interesting next 48 hours. enjoy the wind driven snow especially near the coast. How much? we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Looking for 6-10" over for Lowershoresadness in the 'bury and eastern shore. 2-6" for the western coast of the Bay (slanted higher southwest). 1-3" west of there. The western side will pick up half or more of their snow from the pre-storm frontogenesis-driven event. I expect that to overperform a bit due to the fact that the lift is co-located across the DGZ and persists for hours before the coastal blows up. Those kinds of events are often a bit sneaky: they start early and can produce healthy dendrites and aggregates. Surface temps will start a smidgen warm, but ground temps are cold. It won't take long to get the boundary layer to cool off, unlike last week. Subject to some revision due to where the coastal actually ends up setting up. If the 850/700mb lows end up a bit further NW and we stay SSE/SE at 500mb, totals will get bumped. thanks for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 man this place should be jumping, did everyone move off the shore??? Alex go get everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 man this place should be jumping, did everyone move off the shore??? Alex go get everyoneLol they're having a funeral in the main threadSent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, alexderiemer said: Lol they're having a funeral in the main thread Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Man, that’s a low blow! Hope you all get wrecked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
* shine * Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 29F and cloudy here in Camden, Kent County DE where at least one of us has been up since 4:30am cause today is better than Christmas morning!! What’s up Eastern shore!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Blizzard warning for you folks along the coast. Lewes and Rehoboth should be fun, then shut lol. I would love to chase but too much going on here, so I will enjoy whatever falls in my yard this time. If the latest trends are correct, there is a chance for more than a foot down there with plenty of drifting. Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Blizzard warning for you folks along the coast. Lewes and Rehoboth should be fun, then shut lol. I would love to chase but too much going on here, so I will enjoy whatever falls in my yard this time. If the latest trends are correct, there is a chance for more than a foot down there with plenty of drifting. Enjoy! A foot would be great- I am very excited for this storm. Let’s hope it over performs for everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 expecting a solid 8 inches here but could max over 10 as I'm on the east side of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I too am on the east side of town and am expecting a foot. The trends have seemed to be moving towards more, not less and now with the Blizzard warning for OC, I suggests a bigger storm. Fortunately, I don't have any reputation to protect and so I can make these outlandish claims and let Dan and Co. keep putting out their conservative estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, twim19 said: I too am on the east side of town and am expecting a foot. The trends have seemed to be moving towards more, not less and now with the Blizzard warning for OC, I suggests a bigger storm. Fortunately, I don't have any reputation to protect and so I can make these outlandish claims and let Dan and Co. keep putting out their conservative estimates. nice! I hope your right Twim I'd love a foot or more. This may be one of those storms where NWS keeps upping our totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 alright, you guys have fun and keep the info flowing in here as game time approaches. I have to work but will be checking in here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Yeah, yesterday when the WSW was issued, it was for 5-10. Before I went to bed it was 6-11. Now it's 6-12. Alex Seymore is pretty bullish too, so I'm game. Off topic: Your signature cracks me up. I've been lurking in weather forums for about a decade now (How I miss the Accuweather forums) and you are spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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