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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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I haven't been following the Thurs. system but I see LWX has me as mostly sunny all week. I doubt we get anything, but one thing I've been learning here with storms- we're much better off hoping for a north trend than a south trend.

For us down here I don't think we need much of a north trend at all.  Guess I need 30 miles less than you ;)

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12z GFS ensembles brings 0.10-0.25 across Delmarva for Thursday

12z GGEM and EURO trends a bit more north

12z UKMET gives Salisbury 1"-2"

And SREF continues to trend wetter. Latest guidance (15z SREF) has Salisbury at a mean of 3.0" of snow! And that's after taking out the top three snowiest and lowest 3 snowiest solutions .Hmmm...

 

post-98-0-59038700-1424720942_thumb.jpg

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12z GFS ensembles brings 0.10-0.25 across Delmarva for Thursday

12z GGEM and EURO trends a bit more north

12z UKMET gives Salisbury 1"-2"

And SREF continues to trend wetter. Latest guidance (15z SREF) has Salisbury at a mean of 3.0" of snow! And that's after taking out the top three snowiest and lowest 3 snowiest solutions .Hmmm...

 

attachicon.gifsref2.jpg

I just checked the latest SREF for KNHK and it is 3" as well.  Would take that in a second!

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Could end up being a nice little storm for us, but t may come as a 'surprise' to the general public, as the major media has made no mention of it yet.

Yeah it's tough to say much about it when almost all of the global models say "I don't think so." I'm mentioning it this morning though on 47ABC :)

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Snowdude wanted to thank you for jumping in to this sub-forum and giving your expertise here!  Much appreciated.

You're welcome! It's good to see an eastern shore and lower southern Maryland thread. haha.

 

I try to get on as often as I can. Haven't been as active as I can be.

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Dare I say 9z SREF is even snowier! Wow, it continues to show numerous snowy solutions. The mean snow for Salisbury is now up to 8" but that's due to some ridiculously high solutions, so it's more like 6" or so.

 

If the SREF is right it would be a BIG win for them or a HUGE bust if wrong because global models continue to show less snow. We'll see what the 12z suite says.

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I'm stating the obvious, but this would be a huge bust for the GFS and Euro if this storm happens.

 

Also snowdude, just wanted to mention (as others here already have) that we really appreciate you taking the time to post here!

You're absolutely right it'll be a huge bust, but I am a bit nervous because the GFS has been doing better this year especially with potential snowstorms in the short range and I don't like that it doesn't show much. Something is going to bust badly!

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I am relatively confident on this one....I think Milford south could see a 1-4" type snowfall, and south of Salisbury could see 5"+

Greetings from Lancaster county PA...I have family that lives in Lewes (Bay Breeze off King's Highway) and I always root for your area to get nice storms. I come down to visit at least twice of year and must say that I love that town. Here's hoping you guys do well with this!

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