SnowtoRain Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: Snow has stopped, looks like 0.5" total. 0.3" to be exact, enough to make some snowballs for the dog. Down to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 anything happen today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Lowershoresadness said: anything happen today Other than creating potentially unrealistic expectations of a storm that is roughly 6 days away by comparing to every HECS, MECS, and BECS in recent memory? No, pretty typical Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Storm of the winter and we get mostly rain- I can’t stand it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I personally don't think the final outcome is anywhere near resolved. There could be more adjustments south, as has been the seasonal trend. Or maybe not. Maybe we get thump then rain. Or maybe we get into ccb action. Who knows at this point, but its way too early to give up all hope.Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, alexderiemer said: Then move. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Dude it’s just a snowstorm- try to have a little fun and don’t be a jerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 38 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Dude it’s just a snowstorm- try to have a little fun and don’t be a jerk I might be wrong, but I think that's a dudette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Can't say any of the current solutions look that great for our region, although I will reserve judgement until all of tomorrow's model runs since just yesterday everyone was panicking that the storm was going to be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 too early to bail but nothing I've seen so far excites me. In a cold winter we need everything to go right. In this winter we would need dumb luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I might be wrong, but I think that's a dudette.You're wrong Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: too early to bail but nothing I've seen so far excites me. In a cold winter we need everything to go right. In this winter we would need dumb luck. You might get some mood flakes down there tomorrow, most mesos have some snow reaching up to Dorchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: You're wrong Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Lol. Sorry, bro. Not sure who I am confusing you with but glad you got a laugh out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Lol. Sorry, bro. Not sure who I am confusing you with but glad you got a laugh out of it.Its all good doesn't bother me. Definitely a first tho. I've been around since the Wright Weather days..Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 got about half an inch last night 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 This just has fail written all over it for Southern MD and lower shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 34 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: This just has fail written all over it for Southern MD and lower shore. Not sure if this is really a fail since it was never a setup that would generally (there have been a few exceptions) give us much snow to begin with. From the models so far today it seems like 1-4" before transition to rain and then maybe a few snow flakes on the backend if we are lucky. So that is where my bar is set for this one. I think anything less then that would be a fail so with that low bar we should have good boom potential if the costal trends southeast more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowtoRain said: Not sure if this is really a fail since it was never a setup that would generally (there have been a few exceptions) give us much snow to begin with. From the models so far today it seems like 1-4" before transition to rain and then maybe a few snow flakes on the backend if we are lucky. So that is where my bar is set for this one. I think anything less then that would be a fail so with that low bar we should have good boom potential if the costal trends southeast more. That's kind of my benchmark for success as well. I'm definitely not buying into the CMC solution. It's just going to be frustrating watching the northern tier with well over a foot while we measure pity inches (I'm thinking of Feb. 2014 for example). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro put out more snow, but the surface temps get to >35 by hr 90 and stay above freezing for most of the remainder of the storm. Unless I misinterpreted something that is still fairly marginal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 But it could be a step in the right direction. Too early to be sure, but I don't count anything out yet.Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 hours ago, SnowtoRain said: Euro put out more snow, but the surface temps get to >35 by hr 90 and stay above freezing for most of the remainder of the storm. Unless I misinterpreted something that is still fairly marginal. The progression is good though. I wouldn't take the 2m temps verbatim. Low 40s is one thing, but on the backside within the CCB, even if it shows 34-35 , with 850s below 0c, it would be snowing pretty good. There is no getting around some rain for a time with this one, for any place east of I-95 imo...unless the primary doesn't hang on as long/ coastal low track shifts pretty significantly. Not likely at this range though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 guess we are are eating at the snowstorm kids table again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Lowershoresadness said: guess we are are eating at the snowstorm kids table again Not laughing at you. Just a funny post. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The progression is good though. I wouldn't take the 2m temps verbatim. Low 40s is one thing, but on the backside within the CCB, even if it shows 34-35 , with 850s below 0c, it would be snowing pretty good. There is no getting around some rain for a time with this one, for any place east of I-95 imo...unless the primary doesn't hang on as long/ coastal low track shifts pretty significantly. Not likely at this range though. IMHO if we're going to do this IMBY, it's gonna have to be the front end thump- that was really the difference between a 2016 HECS and a 2014 fail. I don't put much faith in the backside or the coastal part- 2019 was really the only one I can remember that overperformed on the back end, but that system was further south anyway I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: IMHO if we're going to do this IMBY, it's gonna have to be the front end thump- that was really the difference between a 2016 HECS and a 2014 fail. I don't put much faith in the backside or the coastal part- 2019 was really the only one I can remember that overperformed on the back end, but that system was further south anyway I believe. NAM supports your assessment of the front end thump to light rain to dry slot. Does not go far enough out to see what the coastal does, but I would guess that with the NAM's evolution that will probably be minor for us. Again, this is the NAM at the end of its range so obviously many caveats, but the last two storms the NAM did sniff out the general evolution (QPF aside). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 hours ago, SnowtoRain said: NAM supports your assessment of the front end thump to light rain to dry slot. Does not go far enough out to see what the coastal does, but I would guess that with the NAM's evolution that will probably be minor for us. Again, this is the NAM at the end of its range so obviously many caveats, but the last two storms the NAM did sniff out the general evolution (QPF aside). Yeah, everyone bashes the NAM at range but in many cases it leads the way in sniffing out problems (the most infamous example being Boxing Day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Some halfway descent trends with guidance tonight. Just need a further south transfer to the coastal. Obviously we still mix or rain for most of us in the thread, some of us may be able to mitigate the effects. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @CAPE betting you liked this Euro runSent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Will be spinning up some BUFKIT and digging in tomorrow on this, but that front end f-gen and WAA driven snow looks like it could actually produce some decent totals. Not sold on the back-end stuff. That's far more tenuous unless (again) the suppressed solution wins out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 0z Euro run is actually starting to get me interested. Welcome back @csnavywx! Should probably invite @IronTy in here since he's from the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 we may just dumb luck our way to a few inches down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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