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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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11 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

For the lower shore people: which storm actually gave you more snow- this year or last year?

For the Easton area last year's storm gave us more snow, just over 6".  This storm gave us 4" to 5".  This past storm the heavier bands kept falling apart as they approached Talbot County.  Most likely in response to convection along the coast.  Last year's storm there were three heavy bands that pushed through.   

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21 minutes ago, snowdude said:

What a storm guys, what a storm! Measured 11.5” in Salisbury. 

My law school buddy in Salisbury measured 12", but he's got bad eye sight after running into an ambulance he was chasing!  Lol

If he sent me one more pic, I swear I was going to give him a bad rating on lawyers.com!

He's got like 20" on the year. Unbelievable. 

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14 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

SBY snow reports are not always very timely (from their CF6) so I'm wondering what you think was the actual snowfall at SBY on Wednesday 17th? (data needed for snowfall contest). Thanks. 

The Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6) report from Wakefield lists 1/17 as a T now, which is also consistent with this map: http://www.weather.gov/akq/Jan17_2018

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

Our snowfall down here is going to be completely dependent on how quickly and cleanly the coastal low can spin up. Strong CAA in the PBL will help switch p-types over eventually on Wed. morning, but in order to get decent totals, we're going to have to get into the CCB and deformation zone snows. That's certainly possible in a 12Z Euro or 18Z GFS type setup where the surface low rapidly develops and the mid-level low quickly closes off overhead or just south and allows decently strong lift gets going in the DGZ. However, with marginal surface temps and March sun, we're going to need the rates to produce. If that doesn't happen, it'll be a grass and car topper.

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Our current thinking.

Definitely does't help with the heaviest falling during the middle of the day. We're saying mainly sticking on grassy surfaces and there could be slick slushy roads. However, some snow looks to be heavy, and that could overcome some warm ground issues, especially north.

snmp.jpg

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After further review of this morning's satellite, radar and guidance, it's time to bump those totals way up. I'll re-post here in a few, but 6+ looks to be on the table for SoMD and the Ern Shore for sure. There were some hints yesterday about the possibility of the track trending closer and a clean transfer. That seems to be the preferred outcome this morning. In particular, there's now agreement that the H5 and H7 lows will develop just southwest and track just south of the area, with southeasterly and easterly winds at those levels, unlike yesterday, which showed messy and weak flow at that level.

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To be fair, there's still some uncertainty there (and thus bust potential). It's a fragile setup, though it's getting harder to ignore the chorus of a low tucked in 50mi e of WAL and decent convectively-enhanced banding tomorrow. Only additional problem I see on further analysis is the potential for a later changeover closer to the eastern shore. That warm nose will be resilient for a while until heights crash and lift can act robustly on that layer.

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