SOMDweather Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 With the AO being pretty positive during this week, the cold air will be tough to get unlike this last storm, however, there looks to be just enough cold air where there may be some accumulating snow if this system trends west, which there is a chance of. Right now I'd say about a 20-30% for the DC area, 40-50% chance along eastern shore. Stay tuned for sure... Thank you for your thoughts sir! Always much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 It won't get talked about in the main thread cause it doesn't involve DC/NoVa but it looks like the GFS keeps showing all of us getting clipped Wed or Thurs? LWX has a 30% chance of snow both Thursday and Thursday night for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think Friday morning is starting to look encouraging for some snow in our regions, especially lower eastern shore. Most models show 1-4 inches on the eastern shore and around a inch in Southern Maryland. Surface temps look to start warm but will cool down with precip. Euro shows, Salisbury starting 40-43 as rain and then turns to snow when the heavy precip is over head, cooling down to 33-34 but upper columns are cold enough to make it snow. It shows 4" for Salisbury. 1-2 for Calvert/Charles and most of St. Mary's 2". GFS is nothing for northern Calvert and Charles, 1" for St. Mary's and 1-4" on Delmarva with heavy rain turning to heavy snow. GFS however did jump 30-40 miles northwest with precip compared to 6z. So with all said, hopefully the trend will be our friend. RGEM is a general 1-2" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I think Friday morning is starting to look encouraging for some snow in our regions, especially lower eastern shore. Most models show 1-4 inches on the eastern shore and around a inch in Southern Maryland. Surface temps look to start warm but will cool down with precip. Euro shows, Salisbury starting 40-43 as rain and then turns to snow when the heavy precip is over head, cooling down to 33-34 but upper columns are cold enough to make it snow. It shows 4" for Salisbury. 1-2 for Calvert/Charles and most of St. Mary's 2". GFS is nothing for northern Calvert and Charles, 1" for St. Mary's and 1-4" on Delmarva with heavy rain turning to heavy snow. GFS however did jump 30-40 miles northwest with precip compared to 6z. So with all said, hopefully the trend will be our friend. RGEM is a general 1-2" for most. Topher ......we are going to party together. Calling all Salisbury peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Topher ......we are going to party together. Calling all Salisbury peeps Hopefully we can all party in the snow, if it doesn't trend back out to sea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 I want Salisbury to get bullseyed in some borderline OTS event that clips the Delmarva coast and screws everyone in DC/Balt and all points north/west. You guys deserve it! Then I'll trademark the hashtag #Salisburied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I posted this to my Facebook earlier in regard to the Thursday night possible snow. Give me some LIKES https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1112770772088832&id=150205931678659¬if_t=like&ref=bookmarks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Latest hires NAM 18z...trending snowier. Shows as much snow as euro does for Salisbury. The question is, will this trend continue? Is it real? And how much of a role will borderline temps and a warmer ground play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Latest hires NAM 18z...trending snowier. Shows as much snow as euro does for Salisbury. The question is, will this trend continue? Is it real? And how much of a role will borderline temps and a warmer ground play? image.png holy moly that looks like a tough forecast lol. you got your work cut out for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I like the Euro solution..it gives me about 2" up here, plus it gives Salisbury 4". WIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Hogwarts snow dance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 4" would do nicely. I'll take what I can get with this winter. GFS looks like 4-5, NAM however went the other way for SBY, nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Congrats folks. 6z rgem. Go to hour 36. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016020406&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Congrats folks. 6z rgem. Go to hour 36. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016020406&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 Wow, this is a tough forecast. I am saying a slushy 1"-2" in Salisbury especially on grass. It's going to be tough to stick but if we get the high snow rates like some models are indicating then we could get more. I mean, it's still 62 degrees right now in Salisbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wow, this is a tough forecast. I am saying a slushy 1"-2" in Salisbury especially on grass. It's going to be tough to stick but if we get the high snow rates like some models are indicating then we could get more. I mean, it's still 62 degrees right now in Salisbury. Indeed! This is a very tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The NAM and the 4km both like 8+, but more importantly, GFS likes ~5. Tend to agree with Snowdude about temps though. This feels like a slushy couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 what's are ceiling for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It would be great if the rgem verified. It's the model that I will use for now at least !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 LWX main page isn't working for me but point and click for my zip code has up to an inch of snow overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Wow looks like we are close to something decent! Hope you guys in the Eastern Shore cash in at the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Pulling for you guys to see snow tomorrow, especially the posters who had to deal with the changeover during the blizzard. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 My latest forecast... I'm thinking BL temps are going to be very borderline here and accumulation will be tough at first. But I think with decent rates and cold enough air we will see a period of snow. Also, the cold front is slower than forecasted and this MAY cause a bit more of a NW trend which would bring heavier precip into the area and also shift the precip access closer to DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 My latest forecast... I'm thinking BL temps are going to be very borderline here and accumulation will be tough at first. But I think with decent rates and cold enough air we will see a period of snow. Also, the cold front is slower than forecasted and this MAY cause a bit more of a NW trend which would bring heavier precip into the area and also shift the precip access closer to DC area. snowmaps.jpg Interesting stuff about a slower cold front passage, hadn't thought about that in relation to this wave. It is still 52 here in Spotsylvania (just outside EZF) hoping for maybe a little Snow TV/Flurries.....good luck over on the Eastern Shore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 My latest forecast... I'm thinking BL temps are going to be very borderline here and accumulation will be tough at first. But I think with decent rates and cold enough air we will see a period of snow. Also, the cold front is slower than forecasted and this MAY cause a bit more of a NW trend which would bring heavier precip into the area and also shift the precip access closer to DC area. snowmaps.jpg Good map and always room for upward adjustments as new guidance comes in. I would not want to be a pro forecaster for the next 2 weeks. Looks like chaos in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 LWX map reminds me of the 1/29/14 SoMD special, but not nearly as much snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 1/8 inch or more and schools will be closed down ......the enthusiasm and nailbiting tension in this thread due to the possibly approaching flizzard is palpable, the visuals, however....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z Euro looks great esp for the lower shore folks...5" for SBY to coastal DE. 3-4" Lower So MD up to Dover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z Euro looks great esp for the lower shore folks...5" for SBY to coastal DE. 3-4" Lower So MD up to Dover. Sadly Euro has not been a great performer for us of late, overdoing snow by quite a bit pretty consistently. Really think 1-3 is more appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 Latest LWX map expands it further north and west. I'm thinking WWA's might be issued for Calvert and St. Mary's at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Sadly Euro has not been a great performer for us of late, overdoing snow by quite a bit pretty consistently. Really think 1-3 is more appropriate. Dont look at the 16z RAP...basically nada for SBY eta- 17z looks better, and its the extended RAP so its out of its range a tad. It also tends to run warm, but the warm temps going in and the short window are a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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