fixnpost Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So i am new here but curious what honest thoughts of snow amounts and r/s mix in salisbury are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Interesting and encouraging trends today Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My best guess is 3-6 followed by a period of rain, followed by another 3-6 at the end. Total snow on the ground at the end, maybe five inches? That's entirely unscientific and based on my own hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fixnpost Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My best guess is 3-6 followed by a period of rain, followed by another 3-6 at the end. Total snow on the ground at the end, maybe five inches? That's entirely unscientific and based on my own hunch. actually what my opinion is as well. great minds:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think the point and clicks right at the shore are lower and go up significantly once inland Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My best guess is 3-6 followed by a period of rain, followed by another 3-6 at the end. Total snow on the ground at the end, maybe five inches? That's entirely unscientific and based on my own hunch. Agreed, maybe more on the backsideSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Didn't like seeing that dry slot on the RGEM parked over central/southern Delmarva. Hopefully we're not about to discover new and innovative ways to get boned out of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The dry slot may save us from rain tho Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Unless the Euro wins out, I think we're stuck with a nasty mixed bag here in SBY at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Unless the Euro wins out, I think we're stuck with a nasty mixed bag here in SBY at least. Not a bad model to hedge your bets on, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 I always like this one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Guys? From clown maps, kinda looks like we got NAM'ed again... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 And then there's the gfs... 5" in SBY, 42" in Chesapeake beach... Lol Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kas80 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Did y'all see the early morning GFS run that jackpotted Southern MD? Haha! I don't believe it at all but it would be fun to see something that against climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Did y'all see the early morning GFS run that jackpotted Southern MD? Haha! I don't believe it at all but it would be fun to see something that against climo. The GFS runs are crazy. Beautiful sky this morning. "Red clouds in the morning"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 This was posted in the model thread but I'll repost here just for posterity. Even crazier than the 18z GFS on Jan 19 with southern MD bullseye. 49"! Saved this to my desktop too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This was posted in the model thread but I'll repost here just for posterity. Even crazier than the 18z GFS on Jan 19 with southern MD bullseye. 49"! Saved this to my desktop too. I think I'd be buried for a while if that happened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kas80 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GFS runs are crazy. Beautiful sky this morning. "Red clouds in the morning"...lol I just sent a picture of the sunrise to my husband with the exact same saying. He is trying to fly in right before the storm- set to land around 10am DCA. It really was gorgeously ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kas80 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This was posted in the model thread but I'll repost here just for posterity. Even crazier than the 18z GFS on Jan 19 with southern MD bullseye. 49"! Saved this to my desktop too. Yes that's the one I was talking about! Could not get it to show up in my post. I will save it forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Latest maps from LWX and AKQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Amount of snow expected to be on the ground according to HRRR by 11pm with rain/snow line still south of Salisbury. Probably a few more inches before switch over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thanks Snowdude really appreciate the analysis and updates. Our areas are very similar climatologically. I think 6-10" by the time it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What a nasty mess it's going to be. If we have 4-6 inches of wet snow saturating with rain at the time of peak winds, it's going to be a bad time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 I just sent a picture of the sunrise to my husband with the exact same saying. He is trying to fly in right before the storm- set to land around 10am DCA. It really was gorgeously ominous. Hopefully your husband got in ok? I'll be posting obs in this thread throughout the storm, good luck to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hugging that Euro. Think the last run kept the 850s off the coast the entire storm. Only model that's show big accumulations for SBY for three (or more?) straight cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hugging that Euro. Think the last run kept the 850s off the coast the entire storm. Only model that's show big accumulations for SBY for three (or more?) straight cycles. Did it? I never saw the maps for the Euro. A 30-50 mile shift is not at all unusual with a big dynamic system like this. 12Z GFS came in cold, looking like 10-12 for SBY from the low-res clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Did it? I never saw the maps for the Euro. A 30-50 mile shift is not at all unusual with a big dynamic system like this. 12Z GFS came in cold, looking like 10-12 for SBY from the low-res clown map. Yeah, saw it posted in the accuweather forums, I think. There's something about this storm that makes me think it's going to veer cold. That something is probably the snow weenie in me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Correction: Looks like 9" on the GFS, low-res map fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 High Wind Warnings added for Anne Arundel, Charles, Calvert and St. Mary's: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1105 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016MDZ011-014-017-018-508-230015-/O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0001.160123T0600Z-160123T1800Z/SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BALTIMORE...GLEN BURNIE...ANNAPOLIS...SEVERN...SOUTH GATE...SEVERNA PARK...ARNOLD...ODENTON...LEXINGTON PARK...CALIFORNIA...CHESAPEAKE BEACH...HUNTINGTOWN...DUNKIRK...NORTH BEACH...LUSBY...PRINCE FREDERICK...ABERDEEN1105 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PMEST SATURDAY.* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65MPH...BECOMING NORTH SATURDAY.* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES... POWERLINES...AND MINOR STRUCTURALDAMAGE. DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THESE CONDITIONS ISDANGEROUS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED.SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MOREWILL CAUSE TREE AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ANTICIPATE POWER OUTAGES.IF YOU LIVE NEAR LARGE TREES... REMAIN IN A LOWER LEVEL OF YOURHOME OR SEEK SHELTER ELSEWHERE IF POSSIBLE.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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