twim19 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This will be our problem. I would expect a good thump up front, brief mix, extended rain, brief mix, then snow again at the backend. I would imagine the only accumulation will be a base layer of slush and then whatever comes at the end. Aye. Wish we could just get a nice, fat southern slider. Coastals rarely end up perfect for us. I do wonder, though. . .so the front end is going to drop a nice thump of snow which will have a cooling effect on the lower levels. If the temps are just above marginal, woudl this keep the lower levels cold enough for freezing rain and/or sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looking forward to obs from everyone in the sub-forum since we will most likely be dealing with some mixing. Wish there were more posters in St. Mary's. Weather in this county alone can vary greatly from north to south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Aye. Wish we could just get a nice, fat southern slider. Coastals rarely end up perfect for us. I do wonder, though. . .so the front end is going to drop a nice thump of snow which will have a cooling effect on the lower levels. If the temps are just above marginal, woudl this keep the lower levels cold enough for freezing rain and/or sleet? I believe warm air aloft is a concern with the easterly flow we're expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 If this storm goes as planned that'll be 3 out of 3 climo+ winters since I moved down here. Incredible. My son is only 3 1/2 and already knows snow is coming (he actually still remembers last year). I hope he remembers this when he gets older cause we could have crappy winters for the next ten years. I didn't get to see my first big snowstorm until I was 13 (Jan. 1996). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looking forward to obs from everyone in the sub-forum since we will most likely be dealing with some mixing. Wish there were more posters in St. Mary's. Weather in this county alone can vary greatly from north to south! Looks like its snowing in St. Mary's or is it just virga? There's a little blob on radar just over the county moving NE. Latest OBS at NHK are 31 and cloudy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like its snowing in St. Mary's or is it just virga? There's a little blob on radar just over the county moving NE. Latest OBS at NHK are 31 and cloudy though. Yeah I can confirm the virga at NHK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Um guys...we got NAM'ed lol Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow. Nearly 3 feet of snow in Dover. Go home NAM, you're drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NBC 10 Philly just had storm surge maps.. 3 feet of surge in Lewes? Un-****ing real... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I believe warm air aloft is a concern with the easterly flow we're expecting. Right! So if that's the case, then the lowest levels might stay cold enough to freeze sleet or rain? Then again, if the 850s stay cold enough, I have to believe that the precipitation rates might be enough to drag all that cold air down to the surface and keep us snow. Obviously, I have no training. . just pondering based on things I've seen happen in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Right! So if that's the case, then the lowest levels might stay cold enough to freeze sleet or rain? Then again, if the 850s stay cold enough, I have to believe that the precipitation rates might be enough to drag all that cold air down to the surface and keep us snow. Obviously, I have no training. . just pondering based on things I've seen happen in the past. I think it's related to the quantity of warm air we're talking about. The low is simply too far inshore for us. But I like that you're keeping the dream alive! Remember, we only need 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There's still going to be snow, but the period of mix and rain Saturday is just about unavoidable, even on the coldest solutions) except maybe the NAM, but, well, its the NAM lol) Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 FWIW, just saw NBC 10 snow map, at first showed 8"+ down here but then when they showed it again after commercial break it said 6"+ Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The little system that's coming across tonight might end up surprisingly robust. Coming more south than clippers usually do and going right across a warm bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's what we are thinking at 47ABC. I'd say it's pretty conservative. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernmarylandsnoman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 30 and pixie dust here in La Plata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 It started snowing hard on my drive home once I reached Sunderland. Calvert didn't treat anything so 2-4 was covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Its rippin' & tearin' IMBY LOL. Dry, fluffy snow. Nice practice run. I'll measure tonight. Btw snowdude thanks for posting your forecast. I assume you think my area will have more mixing issues than what's being modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well, models ticked NW from what I'm seeing...this is disappointing. I know we're not getting the historic totals like DC, but it would be nice to have a foot... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well, models ticked NW from what I'm seeing...this is disappointing. I know we're not getting the historic totals like DC, but it would be nice to have a foot... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Yeah it is worrisome, but hopefully it's just a blip and a wobble. But the NW trend is a real thing, it happens a lot during these storms and that's what worryies me. 12z today and 00z tonight will be big runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I am really looking forward to this storm. I probably will not get much snow. But I will be in here following the epics snows of others in our region. And I also will appreciate not having to dig out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah it is worrisome, but hopefully it's just a blip and a wobble. But the NW trend is a real thing, it happens a lot during these storms and that's what worryies me. 12z today and 00z tonight will be big runs. Tough forecast for you over the next 24 hours. Models still call for ~10 inches in SBY, but when does that fall? How much gets knocked down by the rain? How much comes on the back end? Etc., etc., etc. There's a reason NWS is so slow to decide on how to handle us a lot of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone is going to bust bad. I don't know what all the TV stations are saying but Channel 9 has Calvert and St. Mary's in the 3-6" zone and NWS is saying 18-24" in the Blizzard Watch(snow map has a little less). Seems as though Channel 9 is hedging their bets lots of rain and sleet down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Measured 1" from the storm yesterday- what were everyone else's totals? Did you eastern shore guys get anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Measured 1" from the storm yesterday- what were everyone else's totals? Did you eastern shore guys get anything? Got maybe 3/4" (I didn't measure), but it was definitely enough to mangle the side roads badly. Super slippery this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernmarylandsnoman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone is going to bust bad. I don't know what all the TV stations are saying but Channel 9 has Calvert and St. Mary's in the 3-6" zone and NWS is saying 18-24" in the Blizzard Watch(snow map has a little less). Seems as though Channel 9 is hedging their bets lots of rain and sleet down here. I wonder what model they are using that's basing their change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone is going to bust bad. I don't know what all the TV stations are saying but Channel 9 has Calvert and St. Mary's in the 3-6" zone and NWS is saying 18-24" in the Blizzard Watch(snow map has a little less). Seems as though Channel 9 is hedging their bets lots of rain and sleet down here. I'm in 12-18 on the latest LWX map, you look like you're in 8-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Got maybe 3/4" (I didn't measure), but it was definitely enough to mangle the side roads badly. Super slippery this morning. About the same here in SBY. Schools closed. Maybe they looked at DC's mess last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM came in west over the last two runs and shows us dry slotted at times, reducing our totals to ~4 inches. Yeah, it's the NAM,but it's in its wheelhouse now. Curious to see if GFS does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now