southernmarylandsnoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Btw welcome back! Hope you stick around to post during the storm! Oh I plan on it. I'm a teacher and this is becoming a big time hobby of mine. I just got a GoPro for Christmas and plan on playing with it a lot during the storm. I read a lot and sometimes want to ask questions but they get answered even before I ask. I think this subforum is a great idea though since we are usually way different than DC/NOVA/Baltimore good to kind of have our own obs. On side note, there is a spotter class for winter weather in La Plata tomorrow night in case anyone is interested. Link is http://www.weather.gov/lwx/skywarn . You have to register and all but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oh I plan on it. I'm a teacher and this is becoming a big time hobby of mine. I just got a GoPro for Christmas and plan on playing with it a lot during the storm. I read a lot and sometimes want to ask questions but they get answered even before I ask. I think this subforum is a great idea though since we are usually way different than DC/NOVA/Baltimore good to kind of have our own obs. On side note, there is a spotter class for winter weather in La Plata tomorrow night in case anyone is interested. Link is http://www.weather.gov/lwx/skywarn . You have to register and all but it's there. Wish I had known about that- I took the basic spotter one in Charlotte Hall last October and have been meaning to take the winter one. Oh well, I couldn't have gotten off work early tomorrow to make it anyway. If you see any trained spotter reports from Prince Frederick they might be mine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 can someone move Salisbury 60 miles do west please and thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NWS is calling for near Sandy levels of surge and beach erosion, especially for the Delaware coast Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 00z GFS still likes the 8-12 range for SBY, but perhaps more importantly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 The crazy 40" bubble got moved from Prince Frederick to NoVa... is this for real? I feel like the GFS has been hacked by some weenie on this forum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I suspect that's more likely to be accurate. How often do we see bay counties at 14+ inches(obviously throwing out numbers over 24" at this point)? I just don't want 24 miserable hours of cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I just can't imagine anyone in this region anywhere getting 40". Just nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It will be very interesting to see if 00z euro keeps with the southern solution. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Was just looking at the 0z GFS ensembles on wxbell, and they look good. Mean snowfall looks better than 12z, even for lower eastern shore. MSLP looks good as well, not tucked inland at the lower bay like the op. Mean is just off the NC coast and moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hearing a lot about euro, but not much info for us...shocker. Sounds like it's similar to gfs tho. Either way looks like this has the chance to beat Knickerbocker totals in DC metro... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Per WxBell, 0z Euro has 16 for S DE, 10 for SBY, 19 for Cambridge, And 20+ N&W of there. Probably overdone, as I believe most of us will see some sleet, even rain on the lower shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Per WxBell, 0z Euro has 16 for S DE, 10 for SBY, 19 for Cambridge, And 20+ N&W of there. Probably overdone, as I believe most of us will see some sleet, even rain on the lower shore.Classic snow mix rain back to snow on the end situation. My wonder is whether the bulk of accumulations are on the front or back end?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Classic snow mix rain back to snow on the end situation. My wonder is whether the bulk of accumulations are on the front or back end? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Hard to say at this point. Where you are near the coast, sleet and even rain at the height is possible. Will start as snow, and it will go back to snow as the low pulls away. Per WxBell looks like 6" at Lewes right at the coast. Just few miles inland its 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'll take it, but I must admit some jealousy at what they're going to get out west. Totals like that just aren't really possible here Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernmarylandsnoman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Chuck Bell gives southern Maryland a 6-10 inch call. Including Charles, St. Mary's lol not one model shows that little amount for Charles. Or am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z GFS brought the southern MD bullseye back it looks like- 36"+ over Charles County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Right now I'm thinking the front end thump will be where we see the most snow. Probably 4"-8" in Salisbury before changing to rain and sleet. Could get another couple inches Saturday evening/night when it changes back, maybe more especially if dynamics remain strong and a possible deformation band sets up. Still have time to narrow everything down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Right now I'm thinking the front end thump will be where we see the most snow. Probably 4"-8" in Salisbury before changing to rain and sleet. Could get another couple inches Saturday evening/night when it changes back, maybe more especially if dynamics remain strong and a possible deformation band sets up. Still have time to narrow everything down.The biggest story around here could be the winds and coastal flooding.... I'm hearing some big name storms being tossed around as comparisons..Ash Wednesday 62 Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 cobb data for NHK from 6z GFS. I'm not an expert on how to use these properly but looks like a front end thump of 8" before flip to sleet and rain, finishing as snow again. The front end snow is assuming ratios of 13:1 it looks like, which I think is too high (I always assume the standard 10:1). Someone can correct me if I'm looking at this wrong. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=nhk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z GFS snowfall per wxbell- SBY 11 DOV 17 EASTON 21 DC down to So MD 30+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z GFS snowfall per wxbell- SBY 11 DOV 17 EASTON 21 DC down to So MD 30+ Hard to take the 30"+ seriously down here with there being a decent chance of mixing. Unless we don't?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 ...and amidst all the chaos- WWA up for southern MD for this evening- the Calvert and St. Mary's one has us down for 1-2" although my point and click says only a half inch. This would have been a big deal a week ago LOL URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1114 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016MDZ017-018-210015-/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.160120T2300Z-160121T0500Z//O.CON.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/ST. MARYS-CALVERT-1114 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TOMIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT......BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEAVY SNOW AND WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.* TIMING...SNOW THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...ROADS THIS EVENING WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...AND THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELLING HAZARDOUS. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...MIDDLE 20S THIS EVENING. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THATPERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...ANDPLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FORELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THEPOSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.USE THIS TIME TO MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOURCOMMUNITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hard to take the 30"+ seriously down here with there being a decent chance of mixing. Unless we don't?!?! I dont know if I really buy that bulls-eye area. Plus the wxbell maps are overdone. 1-2 feet seems likely, and where the best mesoscale banding sets up will determine where the higher amounts end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 With a little heavy wet snow on tree limbs and then strong winds- we are looking at the potential for extensive power outages with our pouring rain on Saturday in lewes. Gonna be nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z Euro snowfall per wxbell- SBY 13 Cambridge 19 Easton 19 Dover 20 Lewes 10-12 Lower So MD 20 GREAT run for the whole area. Most everyone is within a couple inches of 20. Higher amounts in mountains of Western VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twim19 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'll take a foot in the 'Bury and be be quite happy. How sloppy is it, though? Much rain to melt all our front-end thump away? Don't mind sleet, but hate the rain in the middle of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12 Euro snowfall per wxbell- SBY 13 Cambridge 19 Easton 19 Dover 20 Lewes 10-12 Lower So MD 20 GREAT run for the whole area. Most everyone is within a couple inches of 20. Higher amounts in mountains of Western VA Wowwwww!!!!!! That is huge, biggest storm in a few years for us. Debeaches, I agree, power outages likely, and the coastal flooding over the canal could be bad..can't remember what the all time record is down there?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'll take a foot in the 'Bury and be be quite happy. How sloppy is it, though? Much rain to melt all our front-end thump away? Don't mind sleet, but hate the rain in the middle of storms. This will be our problem. I would expect a good thump up front, brief mix, extended rain, brief mix, then snow again at the backend. I would imagine the only accumulation will be a base layer of slush and then whatever comes at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 We're missing some of the southern MD people from last year. We're very welcoming of new members in this thread so all lurkers feel free to jump in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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