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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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Seems the region of this sub-forum is the wild card in accumulations.  All depends on how quick the cold air gets in and how much moisture is left when that happens.

 

St. Mary's was left out of the warning area for now but hopefully that will change by this afternoon.

But these forecasters in Wakefield are meteorologists and we are now less than 24 hours away and they've made no decisions on winter highlights for the region while there is a warning for the counties north. Wakefield is consistently slow and late with everything. Their totals aren't even close to matching Mount Holly's border counties. They are nervous and not confident but make a decision. You're a meteorologist! Make a decision anyway. I mean, not even a winter storm watch? Is that going to hurt your verification Wakefield if a watch is issued? 

 

Sorry I am frustrated. This is 2 years of working in the Wakefield aread and seeing no changes or improvements with their forecasts.  

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But these forecasters in Wakefield are meteorologists and we are now less than 24 hours away and they've made no decisions on winter highlights for the region while there is a warning for the counties north. Wakefield is consistently slow and late with everything. Their totals aren't even close to matching Mount Holly's border counties. They are nervous and not confident but make a decision. You're a meteorologist! Make a decision anyway. I mean, not even a winter storm watch? Is that going to hurt your verification Wakefield if a watch is issued? 

 

Sorry I am frustrated. This is 2 years of working in the Wakefield aread and seeing no changes or improvements with their forecasts.  

It does seem odd to me that there aren't at the very least some advisories in the Wakefield region.  I would expect those this afternoon. 

 

I've seen many times were LWX issues WSW's then downgrades to advisories.  At the very least it makes the public aware something is coming.  With Wakefield yet to issue anything, might catch some people by surprise. 

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I agree wrt Wakefields hesitancy to issue anything....it's going to make people in their CWA think there is no storm....and when it does happen, the general public will sit there and say(like they always do) "oh look, the weatherman got it wrong again lollol" :axe:

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While I'd love to see another 6 inches to finish off the season, my gut tells me this isn't our storm in SBY.  I cannot count the number of times I've watched these storms with a tight gradient fail to cool in time for the models to verify on the central/lower shore.

 

That said, there's always the chance that the column cools faster than anticipated and that heavy band of SN on all the maps shifts south by 50-100 miles.

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Ok, I got a big forecast round-up. This is for both sides of the bay. Quite a bit of spread in these forecasts:

 

 

TWC: 3-5" everyone.

 

Accuweather: 3-6" Calvert and Charles, 1-3" St. Mary's and all of the lower eastern shore.

 

DT (1st call): 6-10" for most of us, with a 10"+ blob that reaches parts of northeast Calvert and all of DE

 

LWX: 4-6" for Charles, Calvert and northern half of St. Mary's. 3-4" for southern half of St. Mary's.

 

CWG: 4-7" for for Charles, Calvert and northen half of St. Mary's. 1-4" for southern half of St. Mary's and the lower eastern shore.

 

Justin Berk (first call): 6+ inches northern half of Charles and Calvert, Ice and 3+ inches for southern half of Charles and Calvert, all of St. Mary's, Dorchester, Salisbury and southern DE. Ice and 1-3" south and east of Salisbury.

 

Ava Marie (WBAL): 6" in Charles, 7-8" everyone else.

 

Ellinwood: Mostly 4-8", with lower St. Mary's (around NHK) and anything south of Salisbury in 2-4"

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Ok, I got a big forecast round-up. This is for both sides of the bay. Quite a bit of spread in these forecasts:

 

 

TWC: 3-5" everyone.

 

Accuweather: 3-6" Calvert and Charles, 1-3" St. Mary's and all of the lower eastern shore.

 

DT (1st call): 6-10" for most of us, with a 10"+ blob that reaches parts of northeast Calvert and all of DE

 

LWX: 4-6" for Charles, Calvert and northern half of St. Mary's. 3-4" for southern half of St. Mary's.

 

CWG: 4-7" for for Charles, Calvert and northen half of St. Mary's. 1-4" for southern half of St. Mary's and the lower eastern shore.

 

Justin Berk (first call): 6+ inches northern half of Charles and Calvert, Ice and 3+ inches for southern half of Charles and Calvert, all of St. Mary's, Dorchester, Salisbury and southern DE. Ice and 1-3" south and east of Salisbury.

 

Ava Marie (WBAL): 6" in Charles, 7-8" everyone else.

 

Ellinwood: Mostly 4-8", with lower St. Mary's (around NHK) and anything south of Salisbury in 2-4"

Thanks Noreastericane for putting that together. I'm just going to flip a coin and guess my amounts lol. I feel for the forecasters trying to guess on the timing of this mess.

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Wakefield went Winter Storm Watch for Wicomico and Dorchester after the NAM:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
948 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MDZ021-022-042300-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0005.150305T0600Z-150306T0000Z/
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY
948 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

* AREAS AFFECTED: LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

* HAZARDS: MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW...THEN SNOW LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A
TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING THURSDAY...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY NOON THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG
WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICE.

* TEMPERATURES: LOW 30S...DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S BY EARLY
EVENING.

* WINDS: NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED BY MID TO LATE MORNING
THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND A QUARTER-MILE AT
TIMES LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING
TRAVEL DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. 

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Debating if its too early to build a St. Patrick's Day themed snowman (I did one last year on the St. Patrick's Day storm). It would only be 12 days away. But then what happens if we get a repeat on 3/17/15? Decisions, decisions...

 

Edit: actually I'd build it on the 6th, so only 11 days away. Hmmm...

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Nothing but rain so far, but my guage says we've had 1.13" for this event. It rained hard here last night, but its only a light drizzle now. 41 degrees. Snowpack is mostly gone.

 

I'm gonna stay away from reading or posting on the main thread until it starts to turn over to snow here, cause I know I'm gonna get pissed off reading everyone's snow obs north and west when it hasn't turned over here yet.

 

  :underthewx:

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Nothing but rain so far, but my guage says we've had 1.13" for this event. It rained hard here last night, but its only a light drizzle now. 41 degrees. Snowpack is mostly gone.

 

I'm gonna stay away from reading or posting on the main thread until it starts to turn over to snow here, cause I know I'm gonna get pissed off reading everyone's snow obs north and west when it hasn't turned over here yet.

 

  :underthewx:

Unfortunately true so far. Hope it changes soon. I keep reading its ripping here, roads all covered, sn+++
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