snowdude Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Seems the region of this sub-forum is the wild card in accumulations. All depends on how quick the cold air gets in and how much moisture is left when that happens. St. Mary's was left out of the warning area for now but hopefully that will change by this afternoon. But these forecasters in Wakefield are meteorologists and we are now less than 24 hours away and they've made no decisions on winter highlights for the region while there is a warning for the counties north. Wakefield is consistently slow and late with everything. Their totals aren't even close to matching Mount Holly's border counties. They are nervous and not confident but make a decision. You're a meteorologist! Make a decision anyway. I mean, not even a winter storm watch? Is that going to hurt your verification Wakefield if a watch is issued? Sorry I am frustrated. This is 2 years of working in the Wakefield aread and seeing no changes or improvements with their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 But these forecasters in Wakefield are meteorologists and we are now less than 24 hours away and they've made no decisions on winter highlights for the region while there is a warning for the counties north. Wakefield is consistently slow and late with everything. Their totals aren't even close to matching Mount Holly's border counties. They are nervous and not confident but make a decision. You're a meteorologist! Make a decision anyway. I mean, not even a winter storm watch? Is that going to hurt your verification Wakefield if a watch is issued? Sorry I am frustrated. This is 2 years of working in the Wakefield aread and seeing no changes or improvements with their forecasts. It does seem odd to me that there aren't at the very least some advisories in the Wakefield region. I would expect those this afternoon. I've seen many times were LWX issues WSW's then downgrades to advisories. At the very least it makes the public aware something is coming. With Wakefield yet to issue anything, might catch some people by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Bright sunshine and 51 degrees in Fenwick Island at 8 am. Hope we don't climb into the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's cloudy in Lewes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I agree wrt Wakefields hesitancy to issue anything....it's going to make people in their CWA think there is no storm....and when it does happen, the general public will sit there and say(like they always do) "oh look, the weatherman got it wrong again lollol" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The latest SREF holds serve and keeps Salisbury's mean snow at about 4 inches so that's borderline warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wakefield said either a warning or advisory will be issued by 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 While I'd love to see another 6 inches to finish off the season, my gut tells me this isn't our storm in SBY. I cannot count the number of times I've watched these storms with a tight gradient fail to cool in time for the models to verify on the central/lower shore. That said, there's always the chance that the column cools faster than anticipated and that heavy band of SN on all the maps shifts south by 50-100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ok, I got a big forecast round-up. This is for both sides of the bay. Quite a bit of spread in these forecasts: TWC: 3-5" everyone. Accuweather: 3-6" Calvert and Charles, 1-3" St. Mary's and all of the lower eastern shore. DT (1st call): 6-10" for most of us, with a 10"+ blob that reaches parts of northeast Calvert and all of DE LWX: 4-6" for Charles, Calvert and northern half of St. Mary's. 3-4" for southern half of St. Mary's. CWG: 4-7" for for Charles, Calvert and northen half of St. Mary's. 1-4" for southern half of St. Mary's and the lower eastern shore. Justin Berk (first call): 6+ inches northern half of Charles and Calvert, Ice and 3+ inches for southern half of Charles and Calvert, all of St. Mary's, Dorchester, Salisbury and southern DE. Ice and 1-3" south and east of Salisbury. Ava Marie (WBAL): 6" in Charles, 7-8" everyone else. Ellinwood: Mostly 4-8", with lower St. Mary's (around NHK) and anything south of Salisbury in 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ok, I got a big forecast round-up. This is for both sides of the bay. Quite a bit of spread in these forecasts: TWC: 3-5" everyone. Accuweather: 3-6" Calvert and Charles, 1-3" St. Mary's and all of the lower eastern shore. DT (1st call): 6-10" for most of us, with a 10"+ blob that reaches parts of northeast Calvert and all of DE LWX: 4-6" for Charles, Calvert and northern half of St. Mary's. 3-4" for southern half of St. Mary's. CWG: 4-7" for for Charles, Calvert and northen half of St. Mary's. 1-4" for southern half of St. Mary's and the lower eastern shore. Justin Berk (first call): 6+ inches northern half of Charles and Calvert, Ice and 3+ inches for southern half of Charles and Calvert, all of St. Mary's, Dorchester, Salisbury and southern DE. Ice and 1-3" south and east of Salisbury. Ava Marie (WBAL): 6" in Charles, 7-8" everyone else. Ellinwood: Mostly 4-8", with lower St. Mary's (around NHK) and anything south of Salisbury in 2-4" Thanks Noreastericane for putting that together. I'm just going to flip a coin and guess my amounts lol. I feel for the forecasters trying to guess on the timing of this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wakefield went Winter Storm Watch for Wicomico and Dorchester after the NAM: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA948 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015MDZ021-022-042300-/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0005.150305T0600Z-150306T0000Z/DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY948 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING.* AREAS AFFECTED: LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.* HAZARDS: MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW...THEN SNOW LATE THURSDAY MORNINGTHROUGH EARLY EVENING.* TIMING: RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ATRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATEMORNING THURSDAY...BECOMING ALL SNOW BY NOON THURSDAY THROUGH EARLYEVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES...ALONGWITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICE.* TEMPERATURES: LOW 30S...DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S BY EARLYEVENING.* WINDS: NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED BY MID TO LATE MORNINGTHURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND A QUARTER-MILE ATTIMES LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAKINGTRAVEL DANGEROUS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like we just got NAM'ed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NWS just got NAM'd. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 well that escalated quickly lol Lets do this southern and eastern peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Whatever happens it's been great tracking a snow threat in March for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Debating if its too early to build a St. Patrick's Day themed snowman (I did one last year on the St. Patrick's Day storm). It would only be 12 days away. But then what happens if we get a repeat on 3/17/15? Decisions, decisions... Edit: actually I'd build it on the 6th, so only 11 days away. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just went to a warning over on the lower shore.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just went to a warning over on the lower shore.......... Oh yeah!!!!!! Just like they should have hours ago? Hours late with ANOTHER storm AGAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Amazing consistency with the GFS for several runs. Hopefully it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Amazing consistency with the GFS for several runs. Hopefully it's right. image.jpg Dang Daniel ! We got purpled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Amazing consistency with the GFS for several runs. Hopefully it's right. image.jpg Looks good for everyone. Good luck to us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Needed for Salisbury to have a solid winter +NAO +AO -EPO It snows in Kentucky Boston has historic winter First half of winter gets punted A super duper March arctic front ok got it! In the future if these things occur and I don't have a good winter then the laws of physics are broken lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Woah GFS- lots of snow for everyone to enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nothing but rain so far, but my guage says we've had 1.13" for this event. It rained hard here last night, but its only a light drizzle now. 41 degrees. Snowpack is mostly gone. I'm gonna stay away from reading or posting on the main thread until it starts to turn over to snow here, cause I know I'm gonna get pissed off reading everyone's snow obs north and west when it hasn't turned over here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nothing but rain so far, but my guage says we've had 1.13" for this event. It rained hard here last night, but its only a light drizzle now. 41 degrees. Snowpack is mostly gone. I'm gonna stay away from reading or posting on the main thread until it starts to turn over to snow here, cause I know I'm gonna get pissed off reading everyone's snow obs north and west when it hasn't turned over here yet. Unfortunately true so far. Hope it changes soon. I keep reading its ripping here, roads all covered, sn+++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Unfortunately true so far. Hope it changes soon. I keep reading its ripping here, roads all covered, sn+++ Its sleet here now. Its always ripping and tearing SN+++ obs from some people in the main thread, every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 waiting...............nope not yet..............waiting............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kas80 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Deck covered in sleet. That's about it. Saw some fat flakes trying to mix in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just changed to sleet in Lewes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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