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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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On 2/16/2025 at 1:39 PM, csnavywx said:

Yep -- for a big storm anyways. Can still get a light-moderate event just from relatively favorable track of the southern wave effectively being a slider. But in order to keep a big storm, we need the northern wave to play ball at least a little bit.

 

can we steal warning criteria snow from this thing?

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1 hour ago, Lowershoresadness said:

can we steal warning criteria snow from this thing?

Yes, it's not over -- at least for us southerners. Most guidance was north this run, esp. the CAMs. Although I think some of the NAM positioning is due to diabatic processes in the model from convection. They exist, but it's very difficult to model and prone to shifts. Still, it would be great to get some non-linear cyclogenesis and "save" this one from mediocrity. 

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Yes, it's not over -- at least for us southerners. Most guidance was north this run, esp. the CAMs. Although I think some of the NAM positioning is due to diabatic processes in the model from convection. They exist, but it's very difficult to model and prone to shifts. Still, it would be great to get some non-linear cyclogenesis and "save" this one from mediocrity. 

From your lips..etc

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Interesting tidbit from Mount Holly AFD this morning-

Confidence in the synoptic snow amounts is fairly high in that we`ll see generally low snow totals but some ensemble members do show the potential for a higher impact mesoscale band to develop over portions of southern Delaware. The WPC Snowband Prototype shows at least one band from the HREF moving into Sussex County DE. If this does occur, rates could reach or exceed 1"/hour with snow quickly accumulating for a time. This is of low confidence.

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6 hours ago, CAPE said:

Interesting tidbit from Mount Holly AFD this morning-

Confidence in the synoptic snow amounts is fairly high in that we`ll see generally low snow totals but some ensemble members do show the potential for a higher impact mesoscale band to develop over portions of southern Delaware. The WPC Snowband Prototype shows at least one band from the HREF moving into Sussex County DE. If this does occur, rates could reach or exceed 1"/hour with snow quickly accumulating for a time. This is of low confidence.

Seeing some nice banding develop over S DE on radar. Any reports? @AlexD1990

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2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Just got out of work in Rehoboth, driving to Ocean City to the dispensary. 1 is snow covered heading for Indian River bridge, and it's coming down at a decent clip

I need to retire and get a nice low stress job in the Rehoboth area, and move there. DFH brewery would be a dream, but with my background I would get sucked into the automation side and be working long hours lol.

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Just now, CAPE said:

I need to retire and get a nice low stress job in the Rehoboth area, and move there. DFH brewery would be a dream, but with my background I would get sucked into the automation side and be working long hours lol.

You know how bad the traffic and congestion is down here, though. And God help you if you need a doctor.

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