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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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Mostly heavy sleet at this point. Still a few aggregates mixing in and some small needles and plates from the relatively deep cold layer underneath the warm nose. 4.9" measured. Compaction from the sleet layer getting significant.

I know we're still dealing with this storm until tomorrow morning but it does look like we'll get another shot around the 20th. Titanic Greenland block/-AO should push in a big outbreak of cold air after this weekend and set up a several-day-long window for a system to slide into a favorable waveguide as the block gradually weakens.

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18 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Mostly heavy sleet at this point. Still a few aggregates mixing in and some small needles and plates from the relatively deep cold layer underneath the warm nose. 4.9" measured. Compaction from the sleet layer getting significant.

I know we're still dealing with this storm until tomorrow morning but it does look like we'll get another shot around the 20th. Titanic Greenland block/-AO should push in a big outbreak of cold air after this weekend and set up a several-day-long window for a system to slide into a favorable waveguide as the block gradually weakens.

Talk dirty to me. This is a fantastic winter. Snowing and we're already tracking the next one.

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35 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Mixing line has stalled for now just to my north. Snow attempting to mix back in. Have just been piling on a bunch of sleet for a few hours. About .6 of that on top of 4.5" of snow.

Looks like the sleet extends across the Bay to Cambridge now 

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7 hours ago, SnowtoRain said:

9.0" snow total, 22.75 for the year 

Looking like Leonardtown-->Easton--> Sussex jackpotted in with a 9-11" band (just outside the mixing line). I thought the max amount over here in SoMD would be about 20mi further north, but very close to the final max band!

Perhaps surprising a bit were the 7+ totals all the way down to Pt. Lookout. That initial intense shove of f-gen forcing dropped some 2"/hr rates there with the first band.

Personally I ended around 6.5" with about 1.25" of sleet included in there. VERY dense snowpack. Probably 4 or 5:1.

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20 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said:

from the Southeastern forum. Lets not sleep on next week

sn10_024h-mean-imp.us_ma (1).png

Most guidance has come around to a slider/Hatteras track. Still some wiggle room, but the "waveguide" looks good. Hard to be upset at the general setup 6-7 days out.

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Just now, csnavywx said:

Notable that every single piece of guidance today has an event at D6-D7 and the spread is unusually small for this distance.

Definitely impressive agreement for this lead time. Should be a much colder storm than yesterday too.

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3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Definitely impressive agreement for this lead time. Should be a much colder storm than yesterday too.

Yep. Having it come in just 2-3 days behind this weekend's system is going to help quite a bit. Bulk of the CAA is on Monday, so only a short time for airmass modification before this one arrives. This weekend's system also doesn't entirely scour the Gulf either, leaving some room for return flow to tap in some moisture.

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29 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Yep. Having it come in just 2-3 days behind this weekend's system is going to help quite a bit. Bulk of the CAA is on Monday, so only a short time for airmass modification before this one arrives. This weekend's system also doesn't entirely scour the Gulf either, leaving some room for return flow to tap in some moisture.

I thought this upcoming storm was progged for Tuesday Wednesday?

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2 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

what are we looking for upstairs to max our totals and what could cause up problems?

Wave timing and phasing, basically. A big dog will require the southern stream and northern stream to have a well-timed phase. Even a partial phase can produce decent totals here, so we don't need it to be perfect. The advantage this go-around is that both players are already on the board and are fairly large-scale (one is a large vort/TPV over the Husdon Bay and the other is a large system south of the Aleutians), so it's unlikely this is some hallucination. Most of the volatility is from the vort streamer from the Hudson Bay TPV -- basically the energy that gets left behind underneath the block that's breaking down. If the southern stream is too slow or the PV streamer is too far west or doesn't materialize to the strength that is currently progged, then those could cause some fail modes.

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