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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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3 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said:

Looks like an exciting next few weeks?

Got around an inch or so with the weekend system, looked like more fell just south of here.

Would agree that the pattern improves by the end of this week -- although there's a risk the pattern becomes *too* suppressive.

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Threw some snow showers in the forecast for tonight. Weakly stable to moist neutral layer with some lift from DPVA and a front to work with.

There's also a weak clipper type system on Thu with a favorable 500mb track. Could pick up some light snow from that too.

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Some flakes falling here. 

Ensemble guidance starting to look more promising wrt next week, but it's too early to start hyping. Hopefully most of that vort stays back near the longwave axis and is available to come out in one piece. A real Gulf low into this setup could be a big producer.

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16 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

I am not getting the warm and fuzzies like the last storm, especially since our snow chances seem to be as the storm is lifting away from our region, that almost never ends up working well down this way. I am sure we will really not know what to expect until Sat morning.

Hate to say it, but the 12z runs will be YUGE. Euro evolution/track is fine, but it's a bit dry. Don't want to see it do what the GFS did last run, and need the GFS to take a step towards the outcome it had in its previous few runs.

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2 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

I had a dream of the 1987 storm. Salisbury got 17 inches of snow. The Superbowl was on. Giants vs the Broncos. Watching that with the storm happening and lightening. Man one day I hope we can all experience that .

Had thundersnow in the 2019 blizzard I think? Also i think Boxing Day, which was actually a good storm here.

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Best guess after today's model runs. 0 to 4" seems reasonable going southeast to northwest across Delmarva. Chestertown to Stevensville probably have the best chance to max out on the snow. CAPEville looks to be on the edge of the potential "heaviest" band, Easton probably 1.5 to 2" Cambridge to the Bury 0.5 to 1". Obviously, the faster the cold air presses in the better. Any delay and we will be measuring puddles rather than powder.

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