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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion


PrinceFrederickWx
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It was a good one. Final tally 12" as well. Blowing and drifting will be in an issue today, especially roads surrounded by farms. Rt 40 and 404 can get dicey on a day like today, should make some white knuckle driving. 

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1 hour ago, SOMDweather said:

Parents near Frankford estimated about 10".  Back roads were dicey everywhere.

Yep, 2ndary roads are plowed but not replowed or treated, so its gliding on packed snow/ice. many businesses up here are remaining closed/closing early again today.

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Liking the flattish track of the next system. Looks like a classic southern slider. Some room for incremental improvement with slightly better phasing, but this one is unlikely to curve up the coast and cause a bunch of mixing issues. Shared energy area on the front side of the trough between the subtropical and polar jets should keep it from doing so. "Positive going neutral" tilt trough works just fine for us.

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Found this old pic of my wife looking less than enthusiastic after we completed shoveling 29" of snow off our driveway by hand in dec-2009.  We were both 29yo then....didn't have a snowblower.  Even using one for this latest storm was exhausting for the foot of snow we got, now being 44yo.  Can't imagine how we did that three times in the winter of 09/10 for 2ft snowfalls.  

Screenshot_20250107-191503_copy_672x1496.png

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18 hours ago, IronTy said:

Found this old pic of my wife looking less than enthusiastic after we completed shoveling 29" of snow off our driveway by hand in dec-2009.  We were both 29yo then....didn't have a snowblower.  Even using one for this latest storm was exhausting for the foot of snow we got, now being 44yo.  Can't imagine how we did that three times in the winter of 09/10 for 2ft snowfalls.  

Screenshot_20250107-191503_copy_672x1496.png

It sucked shoveling that snow off of a driveway about half that size, both back in 2009 and this past Monday...primarily because I'm 15 years older than you. (My wife also gets that same look, post shoveling!) :D  In fairness, neighbor few doors away did bring his snowblower by on Monday to help.

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Surface low track, jet, and mid-level feature forecasts sure beat the hell out of paying too much attention to QPF amounts with a system like this.

The overperformance on QPF upstream over the Plains and Mid-South is pretty unsurprising so far. I think some of that translates up here tomorrow. It's not the best setup in the world, but it's a near perfect Southern Slider track for here and the positive-going-neutral and forcing from the left-exit region of the mid/upper jet is pretty damn good too. Should at least get a narrow stripe of enhanced totals from that and it's good to see the guidance finally start trending that direction with the precip field.

 

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33 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Surface low track, jet, and mid-level feature forecasts sure beat the hell out of paying too much attention to QPF amounts with a system like this.

The overperformance on QPF upstream over the Plains and Mid-South is pretty unsurprising so far. I think some of that translates up here tomorrow. It's not the best setup in the world, but it's a near perfect Southern Slider track for here and the positive-going-neutral and forcing from the left-exit region of the mid/upper jet is pretty damn good too. Should at least get a narrow stripe of enhanced totals from that and it's good to see the guidance finally start trending that direction with the precip field.

 

Think we'll eek out more than an inch in Sussex? Seems like 2" is probably our ceiling 

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