AlexD1990 Posted Saturday at 01:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:41 PM I wouldn't worry too much unless you're south of Salisbury. Everyone looks to have the best snowfall since 2022, even if there is mixing. Fun times ahead! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted Saturday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:24 PM I'll tell ya one thing the wind this am is biting my arse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted Saturday at 03:30 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:30 PM 1 hour ago, AlexD1990 said: I wouldn't worry too much unless you're south of Salisbury. Everyone looks to have the best snowfall since 2022, even if there is mixing. Fun times ahead! I agree, I’m usually a deb with north trends but this cold air push seems legit. Busting colder and windier today, still not even above freezing yet IMBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Sunday at 12:11 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:11 AM Still looks good, except for the nam. I think even those that mix see at least 3" if not much more. Visiting family in Cecil county and racing the storm home tomorrow night, because I think my home in Sussex County, DE will get more than they will, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted Sunday at 03:01 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:01 AM NAM came closer to globals. We all know the biggest fight will be sleet/fzra. Whoever is just north of that will cash in. Still probably too far out to narrow where that sets up exactly. Mt Holly basically has 4 to 12" forcasted for Easton if that is any indication of their uncertainty... Have not checked Wakefield. @CAPE or @csnavywx, any deeper insights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 03:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:19 AM 14 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: NAM came closer to globals. We all know the biggest fight will be sleet/fzra. Whoever is just north of that will cash in. Still probably too far out to narrow where that sets up exactly. Mt Holly basically has 4 to 12" forcasted for Easton if that is any indication of their uncertainty... Have not checked Wakefield. @CAPE or @csnavywx, any deeper insights? Yeah I mentioned this in the storm thread- the wide min to max range for forecast snowfall totals is an indication of the unusual uncertainty across the guidance at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted Sunday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:32 AM RGEM and ICON say the best place to be is neighbors with @Lowershoresadness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted Sunday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:06 AM GFS looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Sunday at 04:24 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:24 AM It would be nice to have more model agreement, especially for the Salisbury area. Still should be a warning criteria for everyone, which is nice. Early indication is the next storm might be a more typical rainer for some of us... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted Sunday at 05:06 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:06 AM 41 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: It would be nice to have more model agreement, especially for the Salisbury area. Still should be a warning criteria for everyone, which is nice. Early indication is the next storm might be a more typical rainer for some of us... Monday could be a nice wintry day around here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted Sunday at 12:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:00 PM the jack zone will move around but the shore looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted Sunday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:20 PM Looks like fairly decent consensus across all models now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted Sunday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:33 PM We always have issues with mixing in WAA/WCB setups and I don't expect this time to be different. The two things we have going for us is that the precip arrives before the surface high/ridge even leaves, so that cold air won't get shoved out immediately. The second is that the wave has a nice flat track so the WCB will be more elevated in the column initially. This gives us a couple of chances to cash in on decent accumulations before thermals become prohibitive. Once with the initial shove of elevated WAA (around 700mb) this evening and then initially with surge of moisture and warm advection in the main WCB early in the morning. I've been watching upstream stations and the transition zone has been fairly narrow, so the southern cutoff with decent snow accumulations to an overabundance of sleet is going to be pretty sharp. Easton may do fairly well here while places like here in Lexington Park to Salisbury mix significantly with sleet. This is also a scenario where dynamics around melting can enhance an east-west band for a few hours. Regardless of the WAA driven stuff, I do expect the favorable track of the 500/700mb vort will provide an inch or two of snow on the backside to those of us who get skunked by a sleet-fest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:36 PM Gonna do some BUFKIT profiles and post em here this evening as we progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Sunday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:41 PM Cs, apologies for the IMBY question, but would you be willing to post a estimate for Sussex County/midshore Delmarva? Always love hearing your thoughts, and am curious how much the mixing will affect us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted Sunday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:51 PM 7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Cs, apologies for the IMBY question, but would you be willing to post a estimate for Sussex County/midshore Delmarva? Always love hearing your thoughts, and am curious how much the mixing will affect us. Prob not as much as just further south. I'd have to break out the soundings but my first guess there would be 6-8" with sleet mixing in around 10am-noon tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM Thank you! You're feeling like the Salisbury area is the jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted Sunday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:56 PM 2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Thank you! You're feeling like the Salisbury area is the jackpot? I think they prob. mix with sleet a bit too much/early to be the jackpot area. Unless some wild mesoscale melt-enhanced band can set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM Thank you very much for your thoughts! No matter what, biggest storm since 2022 for us. Looking forward to tomorrow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted Sunday at 10:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:21 PM welp almost game time fellas. I think I'm gonna mix heavy in the bury which will cut me down. you peeps mid shore are looking great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Sunday at 10:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:22 PM Just now, Lowershoresadness said: welp almost game time fellas. I think I'm gonna mix heavy in the bury which will cut me down. you peeps mid shore are looking great I think you still have a shot of 6+. We just got raised to 8-12", which is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM 8 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: I think you still have a shot of 6+. We just got raised to 8-12", which is insane. Yea, CSN will fill us in. I'm wondering how much ice/sleet I will see. That could cripple the bury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Sunday at 10:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:33 PM Lol next weekend! Shades of 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted Sunday at 10:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:37 PM Holy Shit, if we can get that storm next weekend a little bit off the coast more BAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Sunday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:42 PM 4 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: Holy Shit, if we can get that storm next weekend a little bit off the coast more BAM Lol even without that verbatim it would match or exceed this one just about everywhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted yesterday at 02:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 AM Thanks at @csnavywx, 31.5/12.6 in Easton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted yesterday at 04:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:10 AM 5 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said: Yea, CSN will fill us in. I'm wondering how much ice/sleet I will see. That could cripple the bury High chance there's some mixing as we get towards mid-morning. Saving grace is if we somehow get a decent E-W mesoscale band to set up around the mixing line and feed off the melting-induced gradient. Thinking 5-7" for you and me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted yesterday at 04:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:27 AM Light snow commenced here at 11:15p. Tiny flakes with a few partially evaporated small aggregates mixed in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted yesterday at 04:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:42 AM 30.9/14.5, starting to moisten up, radar shows returns overhead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted yesterday at 09:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 09:10 AM Heavy snow arriving under the main band. Lots of smaller dendrites with enormous chonkers mixed in -- some quarters and half-dollar aggregates made of almost pure dendrites. Very efficient snowmaking going on. Piling up fast now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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