yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, snowdude said: I’m getting excited! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 MDZ021>024-VAZ075-076-517-519-521-522-021700- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T2100Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Westmoreland- Richmond-Western King William-Western King and Queen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield, Princess Anne, Snow Hill, Sandy Point, Westmoreland, Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove, Potomac Beach, Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton, Ethel, Farnham, Haynesville, Kennard, Aylett, Beazley, Biscoe, Henley Fork, Indian Neck, Newtown, Owenton, Saint Stephens Church, Tappahannock, and Dunnsville 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and east central Virginia. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 357 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-022200- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T2200Z/ Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic- Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, and Atlantic City 357 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of at least 4 to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland and central and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Hazardous conditions including snow-covered roads will likely impact the Monday morning commute, potentially lingering into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed one inch per hour at times Monday morning. Users should closely monitor the forecast today, as additional changes, potentially significant, are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 January 2017: Beach Blizzard- A New Hope for the Southern Tier January 2018: Beach Blizzard 2- The Flakes Strike Back January 2022: Beach Blizzard 3- Return of the Flakes The trilogy will now be complete! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Eastern Shore pummeling incoming?!?! Who woulda thunk it even a day or so ago? (Hint: The rabid snow-starved of the Mid-Atlantic forum often fear a coastal fringing when things looking strong for the plain.) Not that this can’t go awry, but to say we are all due is obvious. Some day, maybe tomorrow(!)we’ll see… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 7/3/2021 at 7:22 AM, Wxdavis5784 said: What did I tell ya? Wait until winter, the southern sub region will get smoked while I sit and and watch, lol! This aged well! This storm has me wishing I was back home in SOMD! best of luck guys! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Wxdavis5784 said: This aged well! This storm has me wishing I was back home in SOMD! best of luck guys! Thank you for your sacrifice, sir. We will relish every flake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Thank you for your sacrifice, sir. We will relish every flake. Anytime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Busting out BUFKIT on this morning's guidance has been eye-opening. More to come in a bit.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, csnavywx said: Busting out BUFKIT on this morning's guidance has been eye-opening. More to come in a bit.... Thanks, I’ve been looking forward to your thoughts. I’m worried about a last minute north trend. Hope my post above didn’t jinx it- I don’t want to go from Return of the Flakes to The Phantom Flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 WSW now for the bury. just walked the dog, it feels like a normal late April day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 - Ground temps are warm. - Boundary layer starts warm. - Heaviest amounts are likely to be in intense mesoscale bands. Great if you're in it, but that means somebody is getting shafted with subsidence. - SLRs will be very low to start. They improve as time goes on, but we're looking at an 7-9:1 maybe improving to 10:1 by the end. - Sneaky southerly flow at ~700mb might be just warm enough to mix sleet on the southern end as the closed low opens up. - Track very sensitive to small changes. Luckily we're inside 24 hours, so only minor shifts are likely going forward. + Perfect track. Southern slider off Hatteras-east of ORF with a closed (!) low that doesn't track up the coast. + Related to first, but no significant WAA belt to mix (except perhaps very high up >700mb). Column temps cool through the storm. + Very high moisture availability. 1"+ QPF/6 hours. Incidentally, while models tend to overdo QPF <0.75"/6 hr, the opposite is true for values bigger than that. + DGZ and max lift overlap for a good while. Combined with near iso-thermal layer (-2 to -8c) below, this will probably result in a ton of big rimed dendritic and mixed aggregates. Fat flakes that can pile up fast. + Near min sun angle and high boundary layer winds will limit the effect of the Bay. Still expect shoreline accumulation to be lower, but not as bad as with low-gradient situations. + Low static stability, moist neutral to even slightly unstable (wrt theta-e) in mid-levels favors some convectively-enhanced mesoscale banding. Good deformation zone too. Bands will be intense, which is good, because we need high rates to overcome thermal issues initially. Right now, thinking max band runs from Mechanicsville to Easton/Cambridge. 6-12" of wet concrete. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, csnavywx said: - Ground temps are warm. - Boundary layer starts warm. - Heaviest amounts are likely to be in intense mesoscale bands. Great if you're in it, but that means somebody is getting shafted with subsidence. - SLRs will be very low to start. They improve as time goes on, but we're looking at an 7-9:1 maybe improving to 10:1 by the end. - Sneaky southerly flow at ~700mb might be just warm enough to mix sleet on the southern end as the closed low opens up. - Track very sensitive to small changes. Luckily we're inside 24 hours, so only minor shifts are likely going forward. + Perfect track. Southern slider off Hatteras-east of ORF with a closed (!) low that doesn't track up the coast. + Related to first, but no significant WAA belt to mix (except perhaps very high up >700mb). Column temps cool through the storm. + Very high moisture availability. 1"+ QPF/6 hours. Incidentally, while models tend to overdo QPF <0.75"/6 hr, the opposite is true for values bigger than that. + DGZ and max lift overlap for a good while. Combined with near iso-thermal layer (-2 to -8c) below, this will probably result in a ton of big rimed dendritic and mixed aggregates. Fat flakes that can pile up fast. + Near min sun angle and high boundary layer winds will limit the effect of the Bay. Still expect shoreline accumulation to be lower, but not as bad as with low-gradient situations. + Low static stability, moist neutral to even slightly unstable (wrt theta-e) in mid-levels favors some convectively-enhanced mesoscale banding. Good deformation zone too. Bands will be intense, which is good, because we need high rates to overcome thermal issues initially. Right now, thinking max band runs from Mechanicsville to Easton/Cambridge. 6-12" of wet concrete. man tough forecast , thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Cape Henlopen School District just announced they will be closed tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Cape Henlopen School District just announced they will be closed tomorrow So did just about every other school district in Sussex County Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 And this is why I stay out of the main thread. Some people over there are downright bitter. You don't have to root for someone to rain just so you can get your snow. It's possible for all of us to win. Better stick around in here where it's safeSent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: And this is why I stay out of the main thread. Some people over there are downright bitter. You don't have to root for someone to rain just so you can get your snow. It's possible for all of us to win. Better stick around in here where it's safe Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk I stoped trying to contribute years ago. I lurk for the entertainment. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: And this is why I stay out of the main thread. Some people over there are downright bitter. You don't have to root for someone to rain just so you can get your snow. It's possible for all of us to win. Better stick around in here where it's safe Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk If you want to see true level 100 assholes, stop by the off-topic section sometime. Lot of bitter, crazy people on this forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 If you want to see true level 100 assholes, stop by the off-topic section sometime. Lot of bitter, crazy people on this forum. I think I'm actually still banned from that side from years ago I used to get into it pretty bad with Trixie Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Don’t let anyone chase you out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I'm not going anywhere lol. I've been with this board since it was Wright Weather, and PDII in 2003 Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: I'm not going anywhere lol. I've been with this board since it was Wright Weather, and PDII in 2003 Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk I wish all of the eastern shore folks posted more. Everyone knows life is better over there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 New 00z GFS! Geez! This is going to put down some great rates when that deformation band gets going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 New 00z GFS! Geez! This is going to put down some great rates when that deformation band gets going. Did you see the snow map? Total crap o know, but something like 17" for GEDSent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: Did you see the snow map? Total crap o know, but something like 17" for GED Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Yeah I saw. Haha. A lot of tonight’s runs are showing high totals like that. That tells me it’s going to rip! Although some of that in SBY is sleet. But I’m excited! Hopefully temps crash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Calvert County is literally the only county in the state open tomorrow. Can’t wait for Curry to retire this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 just changed over here in the bury. grass is covered in spots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Thundersnow in Hollywood! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, SOMDweather said: Thundersnow in Hollywood! you lucky bastard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Hope you guys are enjoying! I made the ultimate weenie sacrifice to the snow gods by moving out of SOMD this summer. Now I bring the curse to the extreme northern sub forum and S. Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Hope you guys are enjoying! I made the ultimate weenie sacrifice to the snow gods by moving out of SOMD this summer. Now I bring the curse to the extreme northern sub forum and S. Central PA. ha, send us your blizzard pics in March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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