SnowtoRain Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: hmm don't know what to think about Sun Salisbury is the Tug Hill Plateau of the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: Salisbury is the Tug Hill Plateau of the shore sometimes we win by accident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This one could be nice....holding out hope we thread the needle.Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That warm nose around 800-700mb showing up on the NAM is worrying me a bit about a sloppy p-type. Rain to wet concrete and a band of sleet mix in there somewhere. Will have to dig in on BUFKIT tomorrow and check it out. The Euro is a significantly better scenario for snow, where it starts in the wee hours and diabatic cooling keeps the column from warming up too much. Edit: The 06z NAM is a total weenie run for Lowershore. Plasters him with probably 10-12" of wet concrete. On a more serious note, that's a perfect slider track for SoMo and the lower shore. Last couple of runs were a hair north. Still ~48 hours to go, so no guarantees of course, but having the Euro and NAM sniffing out the exact same scenario is great stuff at this range. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice belt of unstable air being drawn up from the Caribbean and Gulf on the latest runs. Substantial ribbon of elevated CAPE showing up that could get entrained and make things interesting. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 hours ago, csnavywx said: Nice belt of unstable air being drawn up from the Caribbean and Gulf on the latest runs. Substantial ribbon of elevated CAPE showing up that could get entrained and make things interesting. Would be awesome since this storm is a bit of a sleeper. I'm in Lusby right now and it feels like spring outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Would be awesome since this storm is a bit of a sleeper. I'm in Lusby right now and it feels like spring outside. Yeah it’s 55 here in Prince Frederick and you can feel the sun getting stronger every day now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 I haven’t followed models at all- how we looking down here? I see NWS calling for 1-2” in my point and click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 48 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I haven’t followed models at all- how we looking down here? I see NWS calling for 1-2” in my point and click. Hug the NAM because it's got like 10" of snow. Everything else around 4-6"....so maybe we'll get 2" in reality? Canadian isn't onboard which is probably a good thing after last week's abomination. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Surprised LWX went to WS Watch cause my point and click is only for 2-4” now. I skimmed the GFS and Euro and it didn’t seem like a WSW event (but maybe I’m wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Not sure what to think of this storm, my gut says we mix or mostly stay rain. With this antecedent warmth maybe I'm dismissing our snow chances too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I really wish they weren't so gleeful in the main thread about model runs that rain on us. I mean, I get it, at the end of the day this is a IMBY hobby, and we have had our fair share of storms that have jackpotted(such as Boxing Day 2010, the I-95 crew cringes at the mention of it, but that gave me a foot of snow) but still, just the same the sense of schadenfreude that can sometimes exude over there leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Latest CMC run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'm going to throw a dart and see how many inches I get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 19 hours ago, alexderiemer said: I really wish they weren't so gleeful in the main thread about model runs that rain on us. I mean, I get it, at the end of the day this is a IMBY hobby, and we have had our fair share of storms that have jackpotted(such as Boxing Day 2010, the I-95 crew cringes at the mention of it, but that gave me a foot of snow) but still, just the same the sense of schadenfreude that can sometimes exude over there leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Latest models are giving you some revenge, if it gets any worse you can expect full on meltdown for northern members. Tear in my beer, sorry I didn't mean that, but I sorta did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Latest models are giving you some revenge, if it gets any worse you can expect full on meltdown for northern members. Tear in my beer, sorry I didn't mean that, but I sorta did. It would be nice to get more than 2". That's my bar, and it's going to be my forecast on my weather page later tonight. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Octopus Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 These are some fat flakes coming down right now. I think we're up to about 2" in Solomon's Island.Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Arctic Octopus said: These are some fat flakes coming down right now. I think we're up to about 2" in Solomon's Island. Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk beautiful scenery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 getting bombed now by huge paste missiles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Puking snow in Millsboro Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Hope everybody enjoyed the paste job yesterday. We did respectably well. Usually do with sliders. Another shot here on Wednesday night and then again on Friday. Perhaps another after that if that big honking Arctic airmass presses down slowly, though there might be some legit mix with an airmass that shallow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Hope everybody enjoyed the paste job yesterday. We did respectably well. Usually do with sliders. Another shot here on Wednesday night and then again on Friday. Perhaps another after that if that big honking Arctic airmass presses down slowly, though there might be some legit mix with an airmass that shallow.I'm just hoping for snow that actually stays on the ground. We got nothing left from yesterday. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 49 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: I'm just hoping for snow that actually stays on the ground. We got nothing left from yesterday. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Nature of the beast with these super-marginal events. Really need a big arctic high to tap into to prevent that from happening. I was thinking about 2" yesterday and we ended up with slightly more than that, so can't complain too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Both the 00 and 12z Euro runs are weenie-of-the-year material for this region. Usually the Euro doesn't flinch at this lead time, so it will be interesting to see if the other guidance comes into agreement with it over the next 12-24 hours. The setup is pretty good for us. Nearly stalled boundary, with waves riding up to provide decent bouts of isentropic upglide, slowly sinking airmass with a strong high that doesn't move off prior to the event and can feed in cold, dry air near the surface and help provide f-gen forcing aloft. Lots to like -- question is whether we'll be just cold enough for the first wave or not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Hate to say this, but the Euro hasn’t verified IMBY at all this winter, while the GFS has been more accurate. I’m just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 47 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Both the 00 and 12z Euro runs are weenie-of-the-year material for this region. Usually the Euro doesn't flinch at this lead time, so it will be interesting to see if the other guidance comes into agreement with it over the next 12-24 hours. The setup is pretty good for us. Nearly stalled boundary, with waves riding up to provide decent bouts of isentropic upglide, slowly sinking airmass with a strong high that doesn't move off prior to the event and can feed in cold, dry air near the surface and help provide f-gen forcing aloft. Lots to like -- question is whether we'll be just cold enough for the first wave or not. I'd like to order an old fashion snowstorm. One where the NWS uses the phone cord around Salisbury to advise heavy snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I’m here, I’m here, I’m here! Sorry for being MIA. Total snow for the season in Salisbury is around 7 inches now! Let’s add more to it! Wednesday night-Friday is looking intriguing! The EURO and NAM look kind of similar. When they agree, that’s good. The good ol’ EE rule. EURO & ETA (now the NAM). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I’m here, I’m here, I’m here! Sorry for being MIA. Total snow for the season in Salisbury is around 7 inches now! Let’s add more to it! Wednesday night-Friday is looking intriguing! The EURO and NAM look kind of similar. When they agree, that’s good. The good ol’ EE rule. EURO & ETA (now the NAM). Glad to have you back bud! Bring it home, I'll even switch from wboc for this!Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: Glad to have you back bud! Bring it home, I'll even switch from wboc for this! Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk HAHA! You BETTER! We’ve nailed pretty much every storm so far! Very proud of our team! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 HAHA! You BETTER! We’ve nailed pretty much every storm so far! Very proud of our team! What can I say, I have a soft spot for Dan. That being said I'll watch your forecast closely. We didn't get anything that stayed from yesterday Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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