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Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Discussion


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 Two southern-most islands are now about to get raked with the stronger eastern eyewall. Appears the capital itself may have just missed the eyewall (though not the eastern end of the island). Given the track and storrm strength, Pam is likely going to be the most damaging cyclone for these islands.

It looks like the just barely made it into the inner eye-wall actually. https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/t31.0-8/10982254_10152931067679597_9058902389743630294_o.png

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The eye is just now coming into a good range on radar to see. What a monster! The absolute worst possible path Pam could have taken through the islands and it took it. The port is typically protected from winds out of the north. But since they spent so much time in the western half of the eye, they had winds straight off the ocean and into the bay for hour after hour all night. I would expect widespread devestation from wind damage, downed trees, mangled infrastructure, structural collapses, etc., all across the capital. Some surge in the direct apex of the port likely occurred simply from the duration they were stuck in the outter portion of the eyewall for a period of several hours as the center passed just over the eastern portion of the island. However, those places that got inside the eyewall experienced horrific and catastrophic damage. Also, the abrupt rise in elevation likely experienced direct forcing with some incredible wind gusts. I could imagine trees debarked and devoid of any vegatation for as far as the eye can see. I fear for folks there. I'm sure it is absolute chaos still even as Pam pulls away.

post-845-0-20259100-1426280298_thumb.png

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  • 11 months later...

Watching the radar loop is fascinating. It looks like Winston might be in the midst of completing a very fast and seamless eyewall replacement cycle.

I also went ahead and took JTWC's data and plugged it into the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney P/W relationship and ended up with a sub-900 mb pressure.

d949114b37edb680e85d4d0df2cefb55.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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From looking at the Satellite/Radar Loops it is clear this storm was either steady state or even strengthening slightly at landfall. Unfortunately the storm wobbles south and the entire north coast looks like it got the eyewall. The good thing that area is relatively sparsely populated.

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Clear evidence of extreme wind damage where the core hit from the initial flyover by the NZ Air Force. Full roof removal and wall failures to wood frame houses that clearly were not "shacks"

pics are incredible, looks as strong as Patricia at LF

#Cyclone #Winston took a devastating toll on #Fiji. Photos shared by @kimbakerwilson taken by @NZDefenceForce https://t.co/EYsoLaOpLE

IMG_20160221_210921.jpg

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