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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter '14-'15


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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

414 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075-

WVZ001>004-012-021-022-250915-

TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-

MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-

GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-

MARION-MONONGALIA-

414 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST

PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF

WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER

CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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Sure Bug...

Its a Miller B storm. Fairly common and some historic snow producers. We are usually limited to the initial system because when a northern system redevelops, it is too far north for the coastal to be in play. So not our wheelhouse per se, but this initial system looks robust enough for a widespread 4" or 5"

Now if u mean the initial clipper intensifying as it dives south, that is not unheard of either, sometimes gulf moisture can get in play

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I ended up with about 1.75 last night. Not bad considering I was in the less than 1 inch accumulation map.

 

Both the 12z GFS and NAM both look pretty solid for the clipper Sunday night, maybe 3-5 or 4-6 a possibility.

 

12z and 00z both showed another clipper threat Thursday night into Friday.

 

00z last night was like a weenie run for our area with the early Feb storm too so as of now looks like plenty of storms to track.

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I ended up with about 1.75 last night. Not bad considering I was in the less than 1 inch accumulation map.

 

Both the 12z GFS and NAM both look pretty solid for the clipper Sunday night, maybe 3-5 or 4-6 a possibility.

 

12z and 00z both showed another clipper threat Thursday night into Friday.

 

00z last night was like a weenie run for our area with the early Feb storm too so as of now looks like plenty of storms to track.

All this means  :snowwindow:  :snowwindow:  :snowwindow:  :snowwindow:  :snowwindow:  :snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing:

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Glad to hear parts of the metro received up to 2.4" per NWS PIT, and 3.75" for psunate.  

 

For Sunday afternoon-Monday, looks like a decent moderate snowfall for SW PA.  An almost-closed low at 500 hPa tracks south of PA.  The NE quadrant of this almost-closed low is where the best divergence (with upward vertical motion below) should be, which is currently progged for extreme SW PA (Greene-Fayette) with perhaps a shorter duration but more intense episode near Morgantown.  Still decent dynamics for the rest of SW PA...but heaviest snow may fall south of PIT.  Ratios could approach 15-20:1 as maximum UVV is progged near 600 hPa, where temperatures should be near -16C.  Most intense snow should occur Sunday night with the 500 hPa low/trough approaching and 850 and 700 hPa lows passing to the south.  Then light snow persists during the day Monday as another shortwave approaches from the NW and the area remains under weak divergent flow at 500 hPa (favoring lift).

 

The model QPF guidance seems reasonable to me.  Early call for snowfall totals at PIT is ~1" by 7 p.m. Sunday, 2-4" for 7 p.m. Sunday-7 a.m. Monday, and ~1" for 7 a.m.-7 p.m. Monday.    Someone south of PIT and north of the WV/PA border may get a bit more on Sunday.

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Winter Weather Advisory...

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
330 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015


MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ014-020>023-029-031-
073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-250900-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0007.150125T1800Z-150126T1800Z/
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BUTLER-
BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...NEW PHILADELPHIA...
CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...
ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...
WOODSFIELD...BUTLER...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...
KITTANNING...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...
LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...
WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...
FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...KINGWOOD...PARSONS
330 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY.


* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* SNOW BEGINNING...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING WELL BEFORE
THE ADVISORY START TIME BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.


* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ENDING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LESS INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW COVERED
ROADS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

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There has been talk of an inverted trough showing up on Tuesday.  Any idea if that would affect us in WPa?

 

SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT`S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT
.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.


STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

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