Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Maybee the low will keep trending south so we stay all snow and ratios stay 10.1 or better with a more south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The more i look at this, the more i dont like it. I think that its a relatively weak wave that actually winds up near Cleveland as it fizzles out. Then it looks like redevelopment in the NYC area and some wraparound snow. I guess it depends on where that primary winds up, but again it's not optimal. This is what has me skeptical. We've seen this solution with a low tracking NW, but models under estimate WWA. Given its going to be lighter precip during the day this late in the season also adds another unfavorable ingredient to the mix. I will say it seems the trend has been for slightly cooler over the last 24 hours so we have that. If we can manage to get .5 .75 all snow, albeit low ratios (10:1 and lower) that would be a decent event. Its the time of year I move out of my snow pack camp and just want a big thump so if this can deliver a 5-6 inch event then great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm happy 5-8. Any were in between. Keep trending south. Look at models from 24 hrs to today they all tended south. Our luck it keeps trending and we get sunny sky's tommorow instead of a mild snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Its probably reasonable to expect an advisory at this point for Allegheny, and Westmoreland. Maybe extend the Watch \ Warning to Armstrong and Indiana. I'd say all counties North of i70 get an advisory though as usual Allegheny and Westmoreland will be the diving zone between advisory and warning criteria snows. This is of course assuming the 12z models today have accurately modeled the advance of the warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The more i look at this, the more i dont like it. I think that its a relatively weak wave that actually winds up near Cleveland as it fizzles out. Then it looks like redevelopment in the NYC area and some wraparound snow. I guess it depends on where that primary winds up, but again it's not optimal. Yeah, looks kind of like last Saturday's event. Think about 1-3" snow in the morning, then break in the middle of the day. Precip picks up during the afternoon as another wave approaches from the west, but temps should rise Butler and south, changing precip over to rain. Cold front passes around 0z Mon, temps then start to fall but not much forcing left for precip after. Might pick up another 1" snow after 0z Mon. I am favoring rain Sunday afternoon because the 12z GFS 540 thickness line has trended north from the 6z run - so that now it is over PIT at 21z Sun and 0z Mon. This is indicating a signifcant layer of warm air. Last week this line only made it to the S PA/WV border and yet the rain/snow line made it all the way to the city. One note on the GFS QPF - I noticed last week it was overdoing liquid equivalent precip at PIT. I think it might be having some trouble with orographic lift. Seems like QPF closer to the OH/PA/N WV border is closer to reality than what it shows for eastern Allegheny, western Westmoreland Cos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yeah, looks kind of like last Saturday's event. Think about 1-3" snow in the morning, then break in the middle of the day. Precip picks up during the afternoon as another wave approaches from the west, but temps should rise Butler and south, changing precip over to rain. Cold front passes around 0z Mon, temps then start to fall but not much forcing left for precip after. Might pick up another 1" snow after 0z Mon. I am favoring rain Sunday afternoon because the 12z GFS 540 thickness line has trended north from the 6z run - so that now it is over PIT at 21z Sun and 0z Mon. This is indicating a signifcant layer of warm air. Last week this line only made it to the S PA/WV border and yet the rain/snow line made it all the way to the city. One note on the GFS QPF - I noticed last week it was overdoing liquid equivalent precip at PIT. I think it might be having some trouble with orographic lift. Seems like QPF closer to the OH/PA/N WV border is closer to reality than what it shows for eastern Allegheny, western Westmoreland Cos. So we will not get more than 4 inches? It's changing Sunday afternoon to rain ,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 So we will not get more than 4 inches? It's changing Sunday afternoon to rain ,, Also u say one thing is not working on the gfs can that mean other things are not working properly on that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That is between .78 and .98 liquid for WPa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Also u say one thing is not working on the gfs can that mean other things are not working properly on that model? Well it's possible that if it is overdoing precip over eastern Allegheny, western Westmoreland that it is a bit too cool in the lower levels (away from the surface) due to too much dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I know we have a shot still. But when a meteoligist says not looking good. U tend to believe him more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This is the Euro on wxbell. Usually overdone but its held steady. Someone else can look at the thickness lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wait a minute thats the 00z still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 At least he has Pgh in the right county now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Can you post the storm after this snow map. Still looks good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 my God man stop it! Don't read it if don't like it,,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Don't read it if don't like it,,. He probably couldn't read it if he did like it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Colonel we like it better when u explain the models and what they are showing with your opinions on top ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 He probably couldn't read it if he did like it...[/quote Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12 z ukmet. All frozen from pa /Maryland border north,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12 z ukmet. All frozen from pa /Maryland border north,,, I'm still holding out hope for this one, not sure why. Probably because we only have about 2 more weeks at something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0018.150301T0900Z-150302T1200Z/GARRETT-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...KINGWOOD...PARSONS311 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE OF ICING FROM SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS..1 TO 3 INCHES.* SNOW BEGINNING...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/ICE...SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATIONBEGINS AS SNOW...AND MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAINBY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A CHANGE TO RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAYAFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ENDING...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDMORNING MONDAY.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOWACCUMULATION AND A TRACE OF ICING ON ROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-PAZ020-021-029-073-074-WVZ001>003-010415-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0018.150301T0900Z-150302T1200Z/TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING311 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO7 AM EST MONDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES.* SNOW BEGINNING...LATE TONIGHT.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.RAIN WILL MIX IN WITH THE SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORECHANGING BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ENDING...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS..HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TOREDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm still holding out hope for this one, not sure why. Probably because we only have about 2 more weeks at something decent. Me too. I been saying we been long over due for something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I like the NWS headlines. 1-3 south. 2-5 metro. 4-8 north/north west. All advisories but accounting for battleground dynamic. Hasnt always been the case in the past as sometimes it was a broader brush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This will most likely be a repeat performance of last week, especially where I live. I'm thinking probably around 2 inches total for my area. That includes front and back end snows with rain in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This will most likely be a repeat performance of last week, especially where I live. I'm thinking probably around 2 inches total for my area. That includes front and back end snows with rain in between. Yep, not setting my expectations for more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Im thinking 2-3 honestly. When the WAA wants to invade it invades. There is nothing that can stop it. I would be shocked if the metro got more than 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Im thinking 2-3 honestly. When the WAA wants to invade it invades. There is nothing that can stop it. I would be shocked if the metro got more than 4.18z nam still has the 0c 925 temp line cutting right through the area.So yeah, at this point, the WAA is gonna do what it wants to do. Nowcasting time once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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