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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter '14-'15


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Obs. in ohio are mostly snow so far, especially south of I-70.

 

Hopefully the precip gathering in S.Indiana and Ohio, will give us good rates later on.

This will help neutralize any BL issues.

I thinking if there is a switch it will be to plain rain. There are several stations reporting snow but are above freezing.

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Looks like next Saturday is another possible event.  That would make 3 Saturdays in a row.  Something to watch. The 12 ECM has 6+ in a line from Texas to Maine. Monster. Runs up western apps

 

 

post-13767-1424536530_thumb.jpg

Sounds like we might be sweating temps maybe? I'll start tracking this one Monday if its still there once the buzz wears off from today. :)

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The area most susceptible in AGC to the warm tongue, the south hills... :)

Yep. Almost never fails. Getting light rain in Bridgeville as well. This is what I was concerned about and what I'm always concerned about when lows track like this. They always underestimate it. At least it's getting the salt off of my truck.
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Will the rates overcome the warming?

My hunch is that they won't, unfortunately, because the warmest air in this case is closest to the surface, instead of farther up.  Vertical motion is usually weakest at the bottom and top of the troposphere, so little-if any-dynamic cooling would be occurring near the surface.

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Marginal events continue the trend to be just that: marginal events.  This time we got a double whammy of dry slotting & rain.

 

What exactly caused the dry slot and why didn't any models pick up on it?  Is that something models can't feasibly forecast?  I'd like to learn for future events so I know when that could be a concern.

 

At 3" this was still the biggest event of the year for me.  That sounds pretty sad.

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Marginal events continue the trend to be just that: marginal events.  This time we got a double whammy of dry slotting & rain.

 

What exactly caused the dry slot and why didn't any models pick up on it?  Is that something models can't feasibly forecast?  I'd like to learn for future events so I know when that could be a concern.

 

At 3" this was still the biggest event of the year for me.  That sounds pretty sad.

Well, the GFS at least did show a break in between vort maxima:  http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_0z/avneastloop.html It shows up in the 3-hourly QPF product.  It also shows the sequence of vort maxima moving over the region in southwesterly flow.  AFAIK  this dry slot hasn't been really bad...i.e. yes MGW had 2 hourly reports with no precip, but thus far precip has not stopped at PIT.

 

As far as p-type goes, 540 dam 1000-500 hPa thickness + soundings signaled to me that MGW would be having p-type issues:  540 line progged north of MGW signaled that a layer was going above 0C, and then soundings showed that the warmest layer would be close to the surface.  Result:  rain.  It is possible that if the warm layer was shallower, snow could still be falling w/ 2 m temp of 37F.

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