Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS gives us 4 inches of snow. NAM seems to be on it's own for the driest of the models. Well hopefully we can see another 6 inch storm or dare I say over performer. This has been a crazy storm to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS gives us 4 inches of snow. NAM seems to be on it's own for the driest of the models.Which is odd for the NAM. Usually, it's the wettest. Hopefully, it's not on to something in terms of moisture. It is the outlier in that regard so we can go by that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It looks like NWS Pittsburgh likes the colder solutions for the weekend. Rain is pretty much being taken out of the forecast. ALLEGHENY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA246 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY....REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOWSHOWERS. BITTERLY COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 5 ABOVE.WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WIND CHILLVALUES AS LOW AS 15 BELOW..TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLYCLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 9 BELOW. FRIGID. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 24 BELOW..FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 9 ABOVE. BITTERLY COLD. WESTWINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLVALUES AS LOW AS 24 BELOW..FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND5 ABOVE. TEMPERATURE RISING TO AROUND 13 AFTER MIDNIGHT.SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH..SATURDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. NOT AS COLD WITHHIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW90 PERCENT..SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. FREEZING RAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOWACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. NOT AS COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE INTHE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT..SUNDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. LITTLE ORNO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THEMID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT..SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING.MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT..MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE..TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOWSHOWERS. VERY COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE..WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro ensembles look good. The mean is 4-6 with more possible with a band running through eastern ohio to sw PA. I can post the map if you want. But the individual members show some really good hits with a few south or extremely south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 And the NAM is in Tennessee. Idk what it is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Does the map look like this...... This one includes mid-next week storm also. Looks like those in Boston will have more snow to plunge almost naked nto... Anyone see those idiot videos with people doing flips from 2nd-3rd story windows into the snow banks. Someone is going to get killed or hurt really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 And the NAM is in Tennessee. Idk what it is doing. it looks similar to the last 2 NAM runs at the same time. The low in Texas is slightly north of the 12Z at the same time. Next frame the low now looks south and west of 12z but precip looks pretty similar Next frame heavier precip into SWPa. Freezing line in Central WV. Next frame heaviest snow near southern AGC down to SWPa. Guessing about 3-6 inches total Net frame still some decent snows into Southern Westmoreland. Looks like possible 6+ for Westmoreland Freezing line never makes it into AGC. Lock it in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 it looks similar to the last 2 NAM runs at the same time. The low in Texas is slightly north of the 12Z at the same time. Next frame the low now looks south and west of 12z but precip looks pretty similar Next frame heavier precip into SWPa. Freezing line in Central WV. the precip and snow started in Tenn but it is it north of the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is the mean That looks similar to what I think the NAM will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 310 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 .... .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LIMIT PRECIP TYPE TO ALL SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER WHERE WAA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN...HOWEVER...ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FREEZE AT THE SFC GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LOW TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS BUT DETAILS SHOULD BECOME MUCH CLEARER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT THANKS TO THE FROZEN GROUND AND SNOW PACK. I think they mean have trended further south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Brief white-out conditions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Where has the stinkbugspecialist been??! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone know where were at on snowfall for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm a bit reticent to believe the Euro, simply because it has been so bad this winter. I'm more inclined to believe the NAM even though it seems to be an outlier. It was the first to get the early Feb storm right with a more northern track. Maybe blend the GFS and NAM right now to come up with a reasonable solution. At least until 12Z runs tomorrow. Anyone know where were at on snowfall for the season? I'm at 13" down here, but I think the city has gotten more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The GFS looks about the same 4-6. I would take that in a heartbeat. Work is gonna be slow this weekend if we do get that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 000 SXUS71 KPBZ 192241 RERPIT RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 540 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 ...RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE AT PITTSBURGH... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT PITTSBURGH WAS 7 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE...9 FROM 1936. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z GFS showing some H5 energy Sat. night into Sun. We'll probably have to rely on mid level lift for snowfall rates, as any strengthening at the surface could give us changeover issues, more than what we already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone know where were at on snowfall for the season? http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=pbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Can't wait for this weather to warmup. These single digits are ridiculous. It's not supposed to be this cold! The average high at PIT is 40, which means the city proper and the South Hills should be 42-44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 They released that hours ago. I am sure their thoughts are somewhat different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like 20% -30% chance for 8 inches for NAGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 lets hope this is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM goes from too dry to way wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 By the way, I have to drive to Morgantown Saturday to watch my son run track at WVU. You know it is going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 One cool thing about the Saturday system is that SW PA should get more precip than C PA due to the persistent southwesterly flow in the low levels. Should yield downsloping and some drying east of the mountains (AOO, UNV). Perhaps some gentle upsloping west of the ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'd be satisfied with that NAM solution. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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