jwilson Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't necessarily buy a super suppressed solution; yeah it is certainly possible, but in this winter I find it hard to believe. Confluence has typically been overdone long-term, as evidenced by the northern trends all winter, but to play devil's advocate, those were also largely northern-stream systems. I'm not sure the models are getting a handle on a southern stream storm in this pattern. That said, ironically, we're hoping for a phase here over something fast moving and strung out, because the former will cut north and west where we'd need it. I suppose the only good news right now is we may not have to worry about rain (I'm still hedging cause I'm sure I'll jinx it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm up in chalk hill near nemacolin. Good weekend to come up as I'm thinking there are going to be some wild conditions. 2-4 inches of snow, blizzard like conditions, and then -30 wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 @NWSPittsburgh Snow showers move in tonight continue through much of Sat. Arctic front may bring thin line of heavy snow in aftrn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wind Chill Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 854 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 OHZ039>041-049-050-PAZ020-021-029-073-075-WVZ001-002-141000- /O.EXB.KPBZ.WC.A.0001.150215T0000Z-150215T1700Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-BEAVER- ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM... CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA... WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...WEIRTON...BETHANY 854 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * WIND CHILL WATCH...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE WIND CHILL INDICES OF 25 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER. * IMPACTS...FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. * IMPACTS...FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE POSSIBLE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL WATCH MEANS THE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Latest NAM and GFS runs seem to be improving for next week. Hope that improving trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 THis snow for tomorrow I didn't think was supposed to start until around daybreak, but looks like it will be here in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Latest NAM and GFS runs seem to be improving for next week. Hope that improving trend continues. Yeah I saw that. Looks like both phase in the southern stream energy (baja low). I think this can come far enough NW to at least give us a light event but going to take things to go just right to get something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm up in chalk hill near nemacolin. Good weekend to come up as I'm thinking there are going to be some wild conditions. 2-4 inches of snow, blizzard like conditions, and then -30 wind chills. Tomorrow is looking like it could be pretty wild with the squall line and the arctic blast incoming. NWS increased totals too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Plenty of time for this thing to amp up a bit more and come further NW. Encouraging to see the GFS tick NW again from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Plenty of time for this thing to amp up a bit more and come further NW. Encouraging to see the GFS tick NW again from 18z. We have seen this play out like this many times where it stops here and we end up on the Northwest fringe with very light snow and a sharp cutoff. If it does blow up it has to come further West and put us in the game. Still plenty of time and tomorrows storm system will play a role too. BTW light snow flurries have started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snowing moderately in bethel....roads covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 259 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 OHZ040-041-050-PAZ007-008-013>015-020>022-029-073-075-WVZ001-002- 141600- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WC.A.0001.150215T0000Z-150215T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WC.W.0001.150215T0000Z-150216T1500Z/ CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-JEFFERSON OH-MERCER-VENANGO-LAWRENCE-BUTLER- CLARION-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND- FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARROLLTON...SALEM...STEUBENVILLE... GROVE CITY...FRANKLIN...NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...CLARION...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG... LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...WEIRTON...BETHANY 259 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY. THE WIND CHILL WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * WIND CHILL WARNING...WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND TEMPERATURE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL INDICES OF 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WIND WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. DO NOT VENTURE OUTDOORS UNLESS YOU ARE PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THE CONDITIONS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Fairly prolonged burst of mod snow here for the past 2 hrs. About a new inch on the ground total so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 1.5" here in Monroeville, moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Expected to get down to -8 on Sunday Night into Monday, the record for the 16th is -7 set in 1963, tonight expected to go down to -6, the record for the 15th is -10 set in 1875. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nice little event so far. Heaviest snows seem just sout of town. Still snowing pretty hard here - close to 2". Roads arent horrible here either as once plows went through sun angle Is helping there. Want to see it rippin with the frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Have close to 3 inches down to light flurries. It was so easy to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 12z gfs is suppressed into the Carolinas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Have close to 3 inches down to light flurries. It was so easy to shovel.Gotta love the high ratio snows. Looking ahead to next week, the GFS is back to suppression and OTS. A lot of uncertainty still with that one. I still think it has to come too far back to affect us this close. Just how I see it. Anyway, we still have today's event to enjoy before dealing with whatever becomes of the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snow is starting to pick up again here after 2 fluffy inches overnight. The heavier squalls seem to be coming in the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here is sampling schedule for midweek system The "1st wave" will be fully sampled by Sun 0z (unless it slows down even more, which has been a trend)The northern stream energy should be offshore for the 00z runs with decent sampling at 12z Sunday. Again, the energy has been slowing down somewhat relative to recent runs so complete sampling might actually take until 00z Sunday. The southern stream energy/moisture is more or less stuck in the questionable observation network of Mexico through at least 00z Monday, but possibly as late as 00z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just got off the phone with Mrs. Digger. Visibility at KYNG is 1/16th of a mile with heavy snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Youngstown reported 1/16 mi visibility at 12:58 p.m. , although something could be wrong with the observational equipment (indicated by the $ symbol in the METAR). It's not too far off from nearby reports of heavy snow. 1/4 mi vis at New Castle and Meadville. KYNG 141758Z 34014KT 1/16SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M07/M09 A2948 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1738 TWR VIS 1/8 T10721089 $ KUCP 141806Z AUTO 23008KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG OVC002 M04/M05 A2947 RMK AO2 P0000 KGKJ 141753Z AUTO 35011G19KT 1/4SM +SN VV007 M07/M10 A2945 RMK AO2 SLP993 P0003 60007 T10721100 11044 21072 55008 TSNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just got off the phone with Mrs. Digger. Visibility at KYNG is 1/16th of a mile with heavy snow... OK then, we have confirmation on the 1/16 mi vis -- thank you. Hope everyone gets to watch it from a location other than the roads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Visibility indeed looks really low near Grove City. Some traffic cameras appear to show a whiteout or near whiteout. http://www.511pa.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 While it only lasted for a minute or so, I just stood on my back porch and literally could not see my neighbor's house which is about 230 feet away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wstaude Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Did anyone else near the West End just hear a bit of thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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