Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A lot of meteoligist are saying gfs is ignoring the H up north. Euro vs american. Let's see if euro hangs in. If euro is way north I say throw towel but if it is not we have 50/50 chance. For all or mostly snow. I don't beleive any senario yet. These transfers are hard for the models to grasp on. And in the past we always get shafted but the H up north isn't there for no reason. It's there to shunt this south. And to funnel cold air into the storm. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yep, its over if GFS is right. I-80 may even see rain this run. Worst outcome, bitter cold, followed by 1 inch of rain to wipe out the snow pack then bitter cold again. Now we wait for NWS to drop watches........ Why would they drop the watch. They are backing the euro ,, ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Why would they drop the watch. They are backing the euro ,, ?? If it turns that areas will only see 1-3 or 2-4 and rain those will get dropped to advisories rather than upgraded to warnings. Sorry should have conveyed that better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I know what you are saying. Our local noaa is backing euro. And as of now euro shows 10 plus for aleghenny county,,.i know all the models are showing mix. Slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CMC still a respectable storm, but slop no doubt. Its north of 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This storm has been over for me for 24 hours+ now. The writing was on the wall. Once the systems were sampled by the models, the north trend started. Funnily enough the NAM was the first to pick up on it. That thing is almost always wrong except when it shows an unfavorable solution, it seems like. Boston wins again. That's just the pattern, true 40 North (almost 41 North) winter. I won't expect different results unless we see the pattern change considerably. Hopefully you city guys can still stay all snow, but I'm guessing we get zero accumulations down here. Not the first time I've seen basically every county in PA have a watch except for Greene, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 2 products issued by NWS for: Pittsburgh PA Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA228 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015OHZ039-040-048>050-057>059-PAZ021-029-073-074-WVZ001>003-010330-/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.150201T0900Z-150202T1700Z//O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0010.150201T0900Z-150202T1700Z/TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING228 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO NOON ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TONOON EST MONDAY. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEETSUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES.* SNOW BEGINNING...LATE TONIGHT.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ENDING...MONDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO ACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND ICE...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZINGRAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ANDREPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEBY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOKPAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$$07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Winter Storm Watch has been cancelled for here. No advisory for here, either. Not surprising. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dt forcast and Steve d. I guess it's gives a little hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM most certainly does not continue its south tend from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dt forcast and Steve d. I guess it's gives a little hope.. That's a horrific map. Shift everything at least50 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's a horrific map. Shift everything at least50 miles north. Yeah, really not sure what this was based off, rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, really not sure what this was based off, rough. Maybe jb's weenieism despite every last bit of climo saying this goes north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 So on to the next threat..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Found this on another site. Grasping at straws I guess... This is still VERY experimental right now, but I tried out a "snow uncertainty" map highlighting areas where I am concerned the most significant changes in snow totals might occur with any minor shift in the evolution of the system... these roughly correspond with +/- 1" uncertainty in the light blue, 3" in moderate blue, and 5" in dark blue. I tried to factor in both ensemble spread, model spread & consistency, and other factors such as dry air & sharp northern gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So on to the next threat..... Ask and you shall receive! Really, this is some odd convoluted things the Euro had with some extended overrunning event that will be gone on the next run probably but fun to look at. I think it also includes snow from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00z NAM is so far north we dryslot, which is better than an an inch of rain anyways at this point. The SREFs are so far norht even NYC and Boston mix to rain. Amazing how this just keeps creeping North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00z NAM is so far north we dryslot, which is better than an an inch of rain anyways at this point. The SREFs are so far norht even NYC and Boston mix to rain. Amazing how this just keeps creeping North.If this had another day, I think it would end up tracking over Buffalo. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Precip is inching into Ohio now. Looks like it's nowcasting time. Whatever happens, happens at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well after looking at the 0z models and the current radar, it sure looks a bust for snow for anyone south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just watching the radar, precip not expanding much along the northern edge, but snow pushing further south into what was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll take track number 2 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll take track number 2 please. Is there a track #3 to choose from? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Is there a track #3 to choose from? lol You Southwestern Pa group will take track 1 and like it! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You Southwestern Pa group will take track 1 and like it! lol If any weather novice joins the forum and asks what a "warm tongue" is, just show them those two pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nice light snow falling right now, everything is covered. I guess the bright side is we get a decent snowy day out it before things go to hell later this evening. After say 7pm just pull the blinds down and don't open them back up until tomorrow morning. Its frustrating seeing how this storm could have been a really good one with 24-36 hours of snow. This storm really has little wrap around snow, at least on the models so we go from light snow, to moderate rain, back to light snow from the looks of it. NWS still has me just barely in the 3-4 range per this map, but that may be bit to high. This map certainly seems to fit climo though as it always seems just north into Armstrong county gets hit while we get slop. I don't know how many times I've measured a couple inches while at my parents house they have double what I get in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just watching the radar, precip not expanding much along the northern edge, but snow pushing further south into what was rain. Hey buddy. U see any that happening today on radar?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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