RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think everybody knows I am usually fairly positive, and that there is time for this to tick south. However, we get 3 or 4 storms like this a winter, and they mostly end up the same way. One of the biggest was the valentine's day storm in 2007. That was forecasted to keep Pittsburgh almost all snow, and the mix line made it up into northern butler county. Pittsburgh did get hours of moderate snow, but then moved to ice. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/pit/hourlywx/hr_pit_07.02 Yeah, I think we should wait until 00z to throw in the towel on an all snow solution, if we see it keep going north I think the writing will be on the wall. It sucks the big ones never seem to trend the right way for us most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, I think we should wait until 00z to throw in the towel on an all snow solution, if we see it keep going north I think the writing will be on the wall. It sucks the big ones never seem to trend the right way for us most of the time.The last big one to trend the right way for us was almost 5 years ago now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think the worst part if things really go down the toilet tonight on the 00z runs will be all the people running around tomorrow in the stores talking about the "big snow storm" that is coming while I know its going to likely be a miss. That being said, I'm putting my optimistic hat on and say 00z tonight will be as good as 00z last night! Now, time to sip on some American Honey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Im going to work out. I better see the NAM atleast change somewhat when I get back. Atleast the Euro as of now is still on our side. Im hoping the models just corrected too far north and this low doesn't get quite so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM is solidly south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think the worst part if things really go down the toilet tonight on the 00z runs will be all the people running around tomorrow in the stores talking about the "big snow storm" that is coming while I know its going to likely be a miss. That being said, I'm putting my optimistic hat on and say 00z tonight will be as good as 00z last night! Now, time to sip on some American Honey. I really dread working tomorrow. Between the Super Bowl and a potential snowstorm, the stores are going to be nuts. I work for a beverage company and have to service stores on Saturdays. I'll be mad if I kill myself tomorrow and we end up with slop on my day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Early input from the NAM way north. Heaviest snows in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow even I-81 mixes. Lets hope the NAM is drunk. Come on GFS. Show us some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow even I-81 mixes. Lets hope the NAM is drunk. Come on GFS. Show us some love. Track is about the same, maybe a bit warmer... overall not something I'd throw the towel in over yet. If the GFS looks like 18z I'll have the towel in hand.. If only that high north of the storm was stronger it might be able to funnel the cold air in better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 here's Verz's forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The fact it doesn't make a transfer earlier is perplexing. That high looks like its bearing down a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Track is about the same, maybe a bit warmer... overall not something I'd throw the towel in over yet. If the GFS looks like 18z I'll have the towel in hand.. If only that high north of the storm was stronger it might be able to funnel the cold air in better. I haven't completely given up, but I do have towel in hand. I'll wait to see what the GFS shows. If it shows what I think it's going to show, the towel will be out of hand. My expectations dropped when that northern trend began. Hope I get surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Accuweather has about 90% of PA with 6 to 12",. I would be shocked if Pittsburgh and south got 6 inches. I think 2-4" is a more reasonable range due to mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Accuweather has about 90% of PA with 6 to 12",. I would be shocked if Pittsburgh and south got 6 inches. I think 2-4" is a more reasonable range due to mixing. Sounds reasonable to me at this point. That 6-12" looked good last night for most of PA. Not now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sounds reasonable to me at this point. That 6-12" looked good last night for most of PA. Not now. Yeah, a lot can change in 24 hours. I still think this storm has a big bust potential for south of Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z GFS is no better. Goodbye towel. Hello slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It just doesn't look like a big deal to me. 6"+ north of I-80, maybe. But looks like a non-event for most of the Pittsburgh metro IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wish I could feel optimistic about that 0z Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm done. Ready for warm weather. Worst Winter Ever!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Even if the Euro is a good hit I am punting. Climo is climo. I have a headache and need some sleep. Atleast it will be bone chilling cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The reason it's not over yet is Bacause there is a h up to the north ,.in the past when warm toungue invaded west pa. That h up to the north was always lacking. Maybee the northern models come back south Tommrow. In the mean time. Anything can happen ..all snow is still a possibility. So is mix. So is rain. Models are not done moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM says theirs still hope: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM says theirs still hope: Is this more south than previous run of this model ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Reduced: 52% of original size [ 1035 x 703 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Is this more south than previous run of this model ??? I think its pretty close to the 12z, but its pretty good compared to GFS\NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ehh not as good as the 12z but atleast it keeps hope alive All we need is a slight south shift and we are golden. Hopefully this can change but its hard to overcome the north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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