Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If it jumped that far south. Then it will go back to the north like other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Remember that storm last winter that bullseyed most of PA, then it shifted so far South it missed us all together? Hopping we can tap into just a touch of that with this one. Rooting for slightly weaker N/S, slightly more progressive, and stronger confluence. Yep I remember Heart break city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Will this help? I know we don't want that far but maybe it will give us the 50 mile or so push we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Will this help? I know we don't want that far but maybe it will give us the 50 mile or so push we need. Hahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Will this help? I know we don't want that far but maybe it will give us the 50 mile or so push we need. That worked for the 2010 storm right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That worked for the 2010 storm right... Absolutely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No south trend, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No south trend, it appears. Well the NAM has been one of the North most models so as long as it doesn't go any farther north we may be okay if it can just hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well the NAM has been one of the North most models so as long as it doesn't go any farther north we may be okay if it can just hold. Plus its an off run. Don['t know how much new info is in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 They said it's between ukmet and cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nam came 20-30 miles south per accuwether Looked further north to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Idiots on there saying things that are wrong. They shouldn't. Be posting info that's false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 THE PREVAILING SHIFT IN THE 12Z MODELS WAS TO CONTINUE A MORENORTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPC FORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE DAY 2 ONWARD. HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NWS going with sref/gfs/euro blend...Nam doesnt seem to far off from 12z so there's that. Doesn't it have a tendency to over amplify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 THE PREVAILING SHIFT IN THE 12Z MODELS WAS TO CONTINUE A MORENORTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPC FORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE DAY 2 ONWARD. HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. I'm in Butler county, so looks like I'm golden, Fayette, Washington and Greene counties look to be maybe out of the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowstorm-to-impact-chicago-p/3901417444001?channel=top_story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm in Butler county, so looks like I'm golden, Fayette, Washington and Greene counties look to be maybe out of the picture. I would never say golden about anything. Exp if u like snow ,,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowstorm-to-impact-chicago-p/3901417444001?channel=top_story I'm thinking up here in Mars, 6" but maybe 8-12". Nice snowy cpl of weeks after a dry basically snowless Winter so far, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS is horrible. **** it I am done with this threat. Its gonna be a slop storm. Enjoy your 2 inches and sleet and rain everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm thinking up here in Mars, 6" but maybe 8-12". Nice snowy cpl of weeks after a dry basically snowless Winter so far, With the way things are trending I'd still be worried a little up there. Tonight's runs are almost make or break to see who gets the big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewCastleWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I live in Lawrence Co and work in Mercer Co...I'm just a little pumped. Trying not to get to excited but let it snow, let it snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS is horrible. **** it I am done with this threat. Its gonna be a slop storm. Enjoy your 2 inches and sleet and rain everyone.This is what typically happens. That northern trend sucks when you're in the bullseye, or close to the bullseye, a few days out. It would have been better if it was still fringing us to the south and trended right into our area. Like I said earlier, we don't see them go back south too often once the northern trend begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS is horrible. **** it I am done with this threat. Its gonna be a slop storm. Enjoy your 2 inches and sleet and rain everyone. GFS is out to lunch. Close to 36 hours we are sitting pretty right now IMO. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is what typically happens. That northern trend sucks when you're in the bullseye a couple of days out. It would have been better if it was still fringing us to the south and trended right into our area. Like I said earlier, we don't see them go back south too often once the northern trend begins. I'm not throwing in the towel yet. I still think a southern trend is very possible. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS is out to lunch. Close to 36 hours we are sitting pretty right now IMO. Sent from my iPhone What possible explanation can you have for that? Based on climo here, this is the exact solution that makes sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS is out to lunch. Close to 36 hours we are sitting pretty right now IMO. Sent from my iPhone I guess the NAM is out to lunch too? Face it this thing is gonna screw probably AGH county on south. But keep being positive since it is clearly working! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well good thing it's 18 z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I guess the NAM is out to lunch too? Face it this thing is gonna screw probably AGH county on south. But keep being positive since it is clearly working! I think everybody knows I am usually fairly positive, and that there is time for this to tick south. However, we get 3 or 4 storms like this a winter, and they mostly end up the same way. One of the biggest was the valentine's day storm in 2007. That was forecasted to keep Pittsburgh almost all snow, and the mix line made it up into northern butler county. Pittsburgh did get hours of moderate snow, but then moved to ice. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/pit/hourlywx/hr_pit_07.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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