colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So far the Canadian looks good.The storm to me seems to be slowing down which could give us our 10 incher if it can hold the track or move slightly South. Still time for movement but we are on the edge. Checking frame by frame it looks like approx 31 hours all snow Pittsburgh and North and some mixing issues Wash Co to WV Border but for only about 5 hours of the storm. My guess now would be 6-12 with 12 north and 6 south. As we all know still time to change but I believe worst case scenario will be 6 inches for all of us. Let's hope we can stay snow down to Morgantown so we can all cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Here she is. Thinking about how she will come to the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 One product issued by NWS for: Pittsburgh PA Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015OHZ039-048>050-057>059-PAZ021-029-073-075-WVZ001>003-310115-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.150201T0900Z-150202T1700Z/TUSCARAWAS-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING1206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHMONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHMONDAY MORNING.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 6 INCHES.* SNOW/ICE BEGINNING...EARLY SUNDAY.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/ICE...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.* SNOW/ICE ENDING...MONDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO ACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND ICE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION MAYSEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MONITOR THELATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAAWEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015OHZ040-041-PAZ007-013-014-020-022-310115-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.150201T0900Z-150202T1700Z/CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-MERCER-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ARMSTRONG-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARROLLTON...SALEM...GROVE CITY...NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...BEAVER...KITTANNING1206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHMONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHMONDAY MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR GREATER.* SNOW BEGINNING...EARLY SUNDAY.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.* SNOW ENDING...MONDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm going to need at least a 100 mile shift south to feel safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So far the Canadian looks good.The storm to me seems to be slowing down which could give us our 10 incher if it can hold the track or move slightly South. Still time for movement but we are on the edge. Checking frame by frame it looks like approx 31 hours all snow Pittsburgh and North and some mixing issues Wash Co to WV Border but for only about 5 hours of the storm. My guess now would be 6-12 with 12 north and 6 south. As we all know still time to change but I believe worst case scenario will be 6 inches for all of us. Let's hope we can stay snow down to Morgantown so we can all cash in. Canadian looks almost identical to the GFS. We definitely want it to go south, even 50 miles would do it for most of us. One thing this storm has that is unusual is some serious arctic air pressing in so that should help so long as it doesn't go to far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Canadian looks almost identical to the GFS. We definitely want it to go south, even 50 miles would do it for most of us. One thing this storm has that is unusual is some serious arctic air pressing in so that should help so long as it doesn't go to far north. I think if this thing is going to come south a bit it has to do it in the next 12-18 hrs. I recall mainly slight north shifts RIGHT before storms but could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 For the BP guys, EURO brings the low right up to our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I refuse to get my hopes up for this one. Classic situation where 50-100 miles north sees over a foot and we see ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Reduced: 68% of original size [ 978 x 695 ] - Click to view full image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Reduced: 68% of original size [ 978 x 695 ] - Click to view full image I think a lot of us would take this if it were to verify verbatim, but as we have been saying all day a 50 mile shift South would be great. Want to see that 12 inch run no further north than the M/D line. Does anyone know when all the players get fully sampled? I think 00z tonight, but maybe not until 12z tomorrow. I think we have narrowed in on the track today, but we are so close a minor change one way or another is going to make a major difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I really want this to bump a little more south so we can ALL cash in for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think a lot of us would take this if it were to verify verbatim, but as we have been saying all day a 50 mile shift South would be great. Want to see that 12 inch run no further north than the M/D line. Does anyone know when all the players get fully sampled? I think 00z tonight, but maybe not until 12z tomorrow. I think we have narrowed in on the track today, but we are so close a minor change one way or another is going to make a major The namedifference. Nam and gfs. Were sampled last night ,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well. Good thing. We go down to 5 tonight. Ground so cold that if it goes to 50. It will still snow. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I really want this to bump a little more south so we can ALL cash in for a change. Yep. Looks like even a 25-50 mile shift south will do it. I live right on the Peters/Wash Co. line and looks like the 3-5 inch line is right there. At least I have my expectations set so I won't be as disappointed when we get a big F you from the warm tongue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't understand how noaa can make a ice line thru Allegheny and south. They are analoging there forcast to past experices,, is there anything on the the models that show cold filtering in. That was not here in previous let downs. ?? Via warm toungue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Back to today....... I just took out the dog and the wind is picking up and still getting some good snow showers. I have drifting in my yard! Haven't seen that in a while. Today reminds me of my younger days in the 70's. Good snowpack with drifting snow and a potential big storm on the Horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We finally get a 12 + storm and the snow belts are gonna cash in...there probily so sick of snow up there too ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well congrats to Clarion county. We will probably be staring at the radar biting our nails and crying. Heres to one last south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 PIT: CODE ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: PIT LAT= 40.50 LON= -80.22 ELE= 1224 12Z JAN30 2 M SFC SFC 850 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW PRS TMP RHU QPF HGT 500 (F) (F) (MB) (F) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 12Z 30-JAN FRI 18Z 30-JAN 21.4 8.8 1027 1.5 16 0.01 534 514 SAT 00Z 31-JAN 8.9 3.6 1031 0.2 11 0.00 540 516 SAT 06Z 31-JAN 0.4 -3.5 1032 7.8 54 0.00 541 517 SAT 12Z 31-JAN -4.6 -9.1 1031 7.5 94 0.00 543 520 SAT 18Z 31-JAN 26.5 12.7 1027 15.1 71 0.00 549 528 SUN 00Z 01-FEB 18.4 14.4 1026 17.9 13 0.00 553 532 SUN 06Z 01-FEB 18.5 15.1 1024 19.0 39 0.00 552 533 SUN 12Z 01-FEB 23.2 21.1 1023 19.5 98 0.03 550 532 SUN 18Z 01-FEB 29.6 26.5 1019 23.5 97 0.12 548 533 MON 00Z 02-FEB 30.2 29.5 1012 25.6 100 0.22 546 536 MON 06Z 02-FEB 31.8 31.0 1004 27.3 100 0.40 541 537 MON 12Z 02-FEB 29.0 27.1 1002 23.9 99 0.19 531 529 MON 18Z 02-FEB 19.2 9.7 1014 10.5 83 0.12 528 517 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 PIT: CODE ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: PIT LAT= 40.50 LON= -80.22 ELE= 1224 12Z JAN30 2 M SFC SFC 850 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW PRS TMP RHU QPF HGT 500 (F) (F) (MB) (F) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 12Z 30-JAN FRI 18Z 30-JAN 21.4 8.8 1027 1.5 16 0.01 534 514 SAT 00Z 31-JAN 8.9 3.6 1031 0.2 11 0.00 540 516 SAT 06Z 31-JAN 0.4 -3.5 1032 7.8 54 0.00 541 517 SAT 12Z 31-JAN -4.6 -9.1 1031 7.5 94 0.00 543 520 SAT 18Z 31-JAN 26.5 12.7 1027 15.1 71 0.00 549 528 SUN 00Z 01-FEB 18.4 14.4 1026 17.9 13 0.00 553 532 SUN 06Z 01-FEB 18.5 15.1 1024 19.0 39 0.00 552 533 SUN 12Z 01-FEB 23.2 21.1 1023 19.5 98 0.03 550 532 SUN 18Z 01-FEB 29.6 26.5 1019 23.5 97 0.12 548 533 MON 00Z 02-FEB 30.2 29.5 1012 25.6 100 0.22 546 536 MON 06Z 02-FEB 31.8 31.0 1004 27.3 100 0.40 541 537 MON 12Z 02-FEB 29.0 27.1 1002 23.9 99 0.19 531 529 MON 18Z 02-FEB 19.2 9.7 1014 10.5 83 0.12 528 517 I dont know how to read this. Care to explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Let me make the first weenie post - its about 12 degrees colder today and the models may be underestimating the snowpack. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Im not an expert but what I learned in meteorology 101..... the 850 temp stays well below freezing and the qpf total is 1.09 inches..... should be a total thumping according to this profile verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think its a thump at the airport verbatim...lots of posters in the zone where things get tight. Here is to 50 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think its a thump at the airport verbatim...lots of posters in the zone where things get tight. Here is to 50 miles south From my understanding of that chart. You need to look at the 540 line in addition to the 850 line. If you look at the 540 line the good thump comes right above that 541 so that may be a mix at times. Anything falls below the 540 line should be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nam coming soon. I wanna see something south ,,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Based on the SREF, I think the NAM will come in much more south. SREF jumped by almost an inch to around 6" for Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nam coming soon. I wanna see something south ,,. Remember that storm last winter that bullseyed most of PA, then it shifted so far South it missed us all together? Hopping we can tap into just a touch of that with this one. Rooting for slightly weaker N/S, slightly more progressive, and stronger confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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