Rdd9108 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Scott Harbaugh calling 3-7" seems low huh? He is being conservative for now. The low could keep tracking north and then we are screwed. No need to throw 8-12 out there if its 2 or so days away still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That's is a good call because if warm tounge slips in our area here and we get 2 inches of slop. He can say I said 3. But if we get 9. He can say I was close too. And first to give a prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Scott Harbaugh calling 3-7" seems low huh? I think that is reasonable a little over 48 hrs out give this storm could still go further north, No need to spit out 9-12 inch numbers this early. 3-7 is still enough for people to be aware of the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That's is a good call because if warm tounge slips in our area here and we get 2 inches of slop. He can say I said 3. But if we get 9. He can say I was close too. And first to give a prediction. Exactly no need to throw huge amounts out there when this can still change. By choosing your wording carefully you can avoid some criticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good thing is we are under 2 days. So some wobbleing. Hope lfully not to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Plus I feel when someone comes out and says high numbers it's a super jinx ,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 HPC has us in the 70-100% chance of 4"+ circle, and the 10-40% chance of 8"+ circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM looks like its coming North.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 yep Way north. 12z NAM 54HR Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 HPC has us in the 70-100% chance of 4"+ circle, and the 10-40% chance of 8"+ circle. day3_psnow_gt_04.gif day3_psnow_gt_08.gif I don't think I ever seen r area in 8 + ever. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well now would be a good time for the north trend to stop. Can't believe 24 hours ago we were fringed to the south, quite a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Maybe they should have waited a few hours before putting out a snow map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well now would be a good time for the north trend to stop. Can't believe 24 hours ago we were fringed to the south, quite a shift. NAM is a bad track for sure, but we still get some snow out of it. If the other models hadn't jumped North already I wouldn't be to concerned about it since it is the NAM past 24 hours. Even the 6z GFS seemed further North than 00z. I think we are still within a reasonable window to see this end up a bit further south, or even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Seems the NAO block doesn't develop until after the storm passes. I'll check again in 24 hours. This is also why I don't follow models every day; way too much inconsistency. Almost zero point in checking them until you're 24 hours or less away from the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Gfs big run coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM is a bad track for sure, but we still get some snow out of it. If the other models hadn't jumped North already I wouldn't be to concerned about it since it is the NAM past 24 hours. Even the 6z GFS seemed further North than 00z. I think we are still within a reasonable window to see this end up a bit further south, or even further north. Even a bit of a wobble south would make me feel better and make a lot of difference. I don't want to see the euro and GFS go the same way as the nam this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Regardless of what happens Sunday, its been a very good snow week. Over 10 inches IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Seems the NAO block doesn't develop until after the storm passes. I'll check again in 24 hours. This is also why I don't follow models every day; way too much inconsistency. Almost zero point in checking them until you're 24 hours or less away from the onset. The biggest problem is sampling, it seems as the northern stream energy gets sampled better, its coming in stronger and stronger thus allowing the more amped up solutions. The only thing that can help us if that is true is better confluence and stronger Highs pushing down. I'm hoping for the best, but betting the GFS comes further North too which would put is into prime slop territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If the NAM is a sign of things to come, it's slop city again, especially south of Pittsburgh. Usually, when these storms start trending north this close to the event, they rarely go back south. Yeah, the 12z GFS will be a huge run for sure. If it comes further north than the 6z, we may be in for another disappointment. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Reduced 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS a nudge south vs 6z, 850 0 line straddles the PA\MD border. Looks like the confluence was a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The northern piece of energy isn't entirely sampled yet. It will be for the Oz runs tonight. So we should start getting a clearer picture by then. At least the northern trend on the gfs stopped. Don't jump off of a cliff yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS a nudge south vs 6z, 850 0 line straddles the PA\MD border. Looks like the confluence was a bit stronger. Nice to see it at least stay put and not continue with the northward jog. The Low pressure seems to get halted from making it too far north and then get shunted almost due east. It would be great if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Gfs stays like 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We need a small trend south. Erie don't need any snow. I wanna be safe. Evreytime we are border line Long toungue. Gets us good. Euro. 50 miles south would be sweet. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'll say it right now...2-4 then slop. Sure hope I an wrong, but usually that mix line goes 50-100 miles north if what's modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I would feel better if this could nudge back to the south a bit. The models do tend to underestimate that warm tongue. The 0 line being along the border is too close for comfort. Like South Park said, the 0z runs later will give us a better understanding of where this may end up. We don't want the last minute north trend that we had last weekend. That trend worked out for a lot of us. This one wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Only thing that went north is nam. Nam is outlier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Is there anyone. Who can map it were low come on shore longitude wise on west coast and show were it could end up leaving on the east coast. And we see then what model shows that scenario. Then we know how north it comes ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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