colonel717 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Still doesn't look bad. 3-6. I would be more than happy with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yeah, later phase and less energy involved. It will be interesting to see the ensembles, but I bet the OP may be on the SE edge but we shall see. If the Euro comes in more amped and west toss everything else. When has that ever failed anyone before? Everything this winter has tended to be less amped so I wouldn't be shocked if this is the start of a trend to a weaker overall look. Still looks like a wide spread on the ensembles with some mixing issues on a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 CMC. Low goes up into near Cleveland from Cincy. Front end snows. Reduced 38% Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This far out is a crap shoot. And I want the weather channel to say we are getting rain here on Sunday. Each model shows something diffrent,it's nice to have something to track. ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not sure how to feel about the 12z trends today. I am more concerned with suppression lack of precip now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think I would rather take my chances with getting some slop and hoping for a better track with the precip amounts being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think I would rather take my chances with getting some slop and hoping for a better track with the precip amounts being shown. Yeah I agree. I don't think we will have a decent idea on how things play out until at least 12z Friday. Right now the models are all just showing "possible" outcomes although it is disconcerting to see the move to a disorganized mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The feb 1-2 storm has had a strong signal for the last week or so on all the models. It will be a bit of a letdown if it ends up sliding a weak low south of us that doesn't get organized until it's out to sea. Although I guess that would ensure the snowpack sticks around for a while as it looks to get pretty cold next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The feb 1-2 storm has had a strong signal for the last week or so on all the models. It will be a bit of a letdown if it ends up sliding a weak low south of us that doesn't get organized until it's out to sea. Although I guess that would ensure the snowpack sticks around for a while as it looks to get pretty cold next week With up to possible .25qpf rain tomorrow and temps in upper 30s, that snow pack could be taking a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 For all of those fretting over the Sunday storm, good news..... the NAM in the last frame connects with the northern branch, it looks like we have a phase....Where it goes after that, who knows but at least the long range NAM has some hope.. And the JMA is a huge hit...1.0-1.5 qpf all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 For all of those fretting over the Sunday storm, good news..... the NAM in the last frame connects with the northern branch, it looks like we have a phase....Where it goes after that, who knows but at least the long range NAM has some hope.. And the JMA is a huge hit...1.0-1.5 qpf all snow... JMA and GGEM are still big precip producers which means such a system is not off the table yet. Hopefully 12z was a bit too drastic for the GFS and we go back to a partial phase. I don't like the euro being less amped as it has been overdoing systems when it does error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Well seeing as our snowpack is gonna take a hit tomorrow guess I will comment on monday. So Euro ensembles have the monday storm as a less amped but still some good individual hits. All of the ingredients are there for a good snowstorm but they all have to come together just right. It looks like the trend for the 12z models was for the polar vortex to bear down and prevent a phase and shear this out. Keeping watch but its still 4 days out and this could turn into a GLC in one day. Something to watch atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z GFS actually looks worse for Sunday. Cold after. JMA is due lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Well seeing as our snowpack is gonna take a hit tomorrow guess I will comment on monday. So Euro ensembles have the monday storm as a less amped but still some good individual hits. All of the ingredients are there for a good snowstorm but they all have to come together just right. It looks like the trend for the 12z models was for the polar vortex to bear down and prevent a phase and shear this out. Keeping watch but its still 4 days out and this could turn into a GLC in one day. Something to watch atleast. The main ingredient is weather channel saying rain for western pa. Then I have faith the rest will fall into place ...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z indeed was worse but again we are talking about an 18z run. Also I believe Ritual said it best we won't know how this turns out until the energy is sampled on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No talk about tomorrow? It could be dicey travel wise, Very Cold surface + rain = Ice. If you guys are out tomorrow be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 No talk about tomorrow? It could be dicey travel wise, Very Cold surface + rain = Ice. If you guys are out tomorrow be safe. Agreed. Anyone have an infrared temperature sensor? If so, point it at the pavement -- I wonder what the ground temperature is. Several years ago, PennDOT provided the road temperature on a Web site, but apparently they no longer do this (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). Am concerned about rain freezing on contact even if the air temperature is > 32F. I suppose some salt might be left on the roads from the snow earlier this week? Re: the Sunday-Monday system, I agree that until the main shortwave is sampled over North America, model solutions could change wildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes tomorrow's drive home and later morning commutes could be a mess. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Several years ago, PennDOT provided the road temperature on a Web site, but apparently they no longer do this (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). Yes, they did, and as you say, they no longer do. Ohio also used to do that, as recently as last winter, but I just took a look at their site, and they've changed it, and now they don't do it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 With up to possible .25qpf rain tomorrow and temps in upper 30s, that snow pack could be taking a decent hit. I am curious myself to see how the pack holds up. Most of us have 6-9 inches of snow with frozen ground underneath so I'm wondering where all the water will go. If the snow pack absorbs a large portion of it we may end up with a 2-3 inch layer cement. Its a shame to see a nice pack get obliterated by this 12-18 hour warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes tomorrow's drive home and later morning commutes could be a mess. Sent from my iPhone For us in the lowlands of Westmoreland and Allegheny and points SE the first hour or 2 of precipitation will definitely have the opportunity to create some serious travel problems, but I think after that the warm air will mix down pretty quickly and overcome the freezing surfaces. 9 times out of 10 the warm prevails but in your travels tomorrow proceed with caution. I think by mid afternoon we should be in the clear just waiting for the temps to drop again and switch back over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes, they did, and as you say, they no longer do. Ohio also used to do that, as recently as last winter, but I just took a look at their site, and they've changed it, and now they don't do it either. Just found that Maryland provides pavement temperatures: http://www.chart.state.md.us/travinfo/weatherstationdata.asp Looks like suburban locations are in the low to mid 20sF, and higher elevations are in the 10sF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I wonder if we can lock in the 0z GFS. Less than five days out. Snow map on IWM is just absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS nice hit 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I wonder if we can lock in the 0z GFS. Less than five days out. ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes the 0z GFS now has the low down in the carolina's. We are in a nice spot. Very early but the storm is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Gfs 8 +. For west pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 U guys down south pa. Should like this too ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Gfs says it starts Sunday late morning So in essence,we are 3 days and a half away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.