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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter '14-'15


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Yeah...it is already happening. While the models that were crushing them...the NAM and Euro had price really filling in by this point, the reality is that it hasn't. Things are not backsliding, and the forum is starting to go into a full nuclear meltdown.

If they get 3 inches..oh my.[/quote

LOL.....right???

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Yeah...it is already happening. While the models that were crushing them...the NAM and Euro had price really filling in by this point, the reality is that it hasn't. Things are not backsliding, and the forum is starting to go into a full nuclear meltdown.

If they get 3 inches..oh my.[/quote

LOL.....right???

 

NWS officially at 7.5. That is the highest report in the county, so my guess is there are scattered areas of 8 or 9 in AGC as there is usually a good variance. 

 

It would be hilarious if we end up with more than NYC.

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I just peeked over at the NYC forums and I kinda feel bad for those guys....lol but seriously I think the storm is just taking a little longer to get started there....precip just hitting a wall in CT but radar showing a push westward....for the sake of the national media, as well as those guys on that thread-I hope they see more than 3"....haha

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I just peeked over at the NYC forums and I kinda feel bad for those guys....lol but seriously I think the storm is just taking a little longer to get started there....precip just hitting a wall in CT but radar showing a push westward....for the sake of the national media, as well as those guys on that thread-I hope they see more than 3"....haha

 

 

Nam just came out, and it basically cut NYC's QPF by 2/3. They now get about 5-8 inches of snow as compared to the massive 20-25 the earlier NAM had.

 

And BTW, I don't feel bad for them at all, lol.

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Well I must say that was a decent storm. Hard to measure but I have about a 9 inch snowpack so my guess is around 6 or 7 inches. Anyway the weather seems to stay busy for us with a clipper and possible storm. I think what I missed most was the snowpack. Good to see us get a some snow on the ground for a change and it will stick around.

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I'm not sure if it was mentioned, but this storm for us was pretty amazingly well modeled. All the models seemed to lock in on this solution 4 or 5 days ago, and also, picked up fairly early on the trof on the back end.

 

This is one of our better storms in the last couple years..all be a lighter longer duration event.

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I'm not sure if it was mentioned, but this storm for us was pretty amazingly well modeled. All the models seemed to lock in on this solution 4 or 5 days ago, and also, picked up fairly early on the trof on the back end.

 

This is one of our better storms in the last couple years..all be a lighter longer duration event.

Agreed. It's funny what happens with expectations. I got 7 inches and was happy with the storm. People in New York, Philly and NJ will get 7 inches and are devastated because they thought they were getting 2 feet.

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Agreed. It's funny what happens with expectations. I got 7 inches and was happy with the storm. People in New York, Philly and NJ will get 7 inches and are devastated because they thought they were getting 2 feet.

 

Honestly, the people in NYC have been so spoiled the last several years that if a storm isn't 10+ inches they lose their minds. Even sometimes that isn't enough. Also, when we bust, it generally isn't 2 feet to 8 inches, it is more like we were supposed to get 4-8 inches but instead get 2 inches then get slop, which is WAY worse IMO than what happens in NYC. I would rather bust from 2 feet to 1 foot.

 

I will say that if I was in NJ with a 12-16 forecast, I would be pretty ticked off right now though. I doubt most of NJ gets more than 3 or 4 more inches, with a large portion of it getting nothing more.

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What's horrible is the ban they put in place from Philly to NYC. Nobody was allowed out, everything closed and for what? 6" of snow. People ask why the public never take forecasters serious.

Anyways NYC has gotten like 7-9" it seems, Long Island has gotten hammered. Some areas are over 24"

Sent from my iPhone

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Looks to me like the short range models really shined for our area and the coastal areas for this storm. They all had our area with 6 or more and persistent snows, and that verified. People are going to criticize the EURO, but I think it was onto the super clipper idea much quicker that the others. Yea it painted insane amounts further west than it should have, but it was almost spot on with the location of the storm, just missed that it wouldn't strengthen as quickly as it was modeled.

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I'm not sure if it was mentioned, but this storm for us was pretty amazingly well modeled. All the models seemed to lock in on this solution 4 or 5 days ago, and also, picked up fairly early on the trof on the back end.

 

This is one of our better storms in the last couple years..all be a lighter longer duration event.

 

I'd disagree to an extent.  If you're talking strictly Allegheny county, then I'd agree, but almost all of the models underestimated the warm-air intrusion for the southern counties and into northern West Virginia.  Even the NWS still had us at 4-6" less than 24 hours before it was obvious we'd never verify.

 

The short-term models seemed to catch onto the idea eventually, but even some runs of those gave us 2-3" and we barely scraped together anything.  I'm thinking the upcoming system(s) will be much of the same; fine for you guys in the city, but south of that there isn't much to look forward to.  None of the teleconnections are favorable long-term except the PNA.

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0dZQ9T3.png

Agh county special.

 

 

I'm sticking with 1-3" south of a line bisecting Masontown, PA West to East. Waynesburg up to southern Allegheny probably 3-6". then 6-10" around the City and some points into Butler county.

 

 

Looks like my own forecast largely verified.  That's the one positive I can take from this!

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