RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:36 PM, colonel717 said: Hi Rez NAM is only around 3-4 inches. Hmm, must be temperature related? Seems odd we are in a hole with higher totals East, South and West and even a few stripes to the North. Then again that would be par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:45 PM, RitualOfTheTrout said: Hmm, must be temperature related? Seems odd we are in a hole with higher totals East, South and West and even a few stripes to the North. Then again that would be par for the course. I don't think that is even the whole storm period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This could be one of the storms where someone is shoveling 8 inches out and a county away somebody is complaining they only got 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:53 PM, north pgh said: This could be one of the storms where someone is shoveling 8 inches out and a county away somebody is complaining they only got 2. I have a pretty good idea who on here will say they busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:48 PM, KPITSnow said: I don't think that is even the whole storm period. Here is a later one. Still looks nothing like the reg NAM for SWPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gonna see so many different possiblities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 PGH NWS office. They are not buying the models high QPF . They said they are overdoing vertical lift. They are sticking with a 1-3" snowfall for now in the Pittsburgh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:18 PM, colonel717 said: PGH NWS office. They are not buying the models high QPF . They said they are overdoing vertical lift. They are sticking with a 1-3" snowfall for now in the Pittsburgh area. I don't think that is a good call...gfs will be a really good indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Rgem is awesome in the other thread...we stay all snow on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z Canadian warms a good bit. Looks like ~12 hours of snow followed by about 6 hours (some mix) of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:38 PM, jwilson said: 12Z Canadian warms a good bit. Looks like ~12 hours of snow followed by about 6 hours (some mix) of rain. Where? Down your way or up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:33 PM, KPITSnow said: Rgem is awesome in the other thread...we stay all snow on it. Looks like 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:41 PM, colonel717 said: Looks like 3-6 I am extraordinarily confused what you are looking at when reading these maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:39 PM, KPITSnow said: Where? Down your way or up here? Both. Shows snow begin at 23 hours everywhere, goes to ice down here at 33 hours (still snow in the city until 36 or 37 hours), then flips to rain everywhere by 39 hours through the remainder at hour 44 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:43 PM, KPITSnow said: I am extraordinarily confused what you are looking at when reading these maps.... I am looking at the shading area of lite blueish into lite purples and most likely lower ratios than even 10:1. Look at the GFS, same thing around 3-5 inches. Yea, someone may get 6 but in general, 3-5 looks like it is the most reasonable call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:50 PM, colonel717 said: I am looking at the shading area of lite blueish into lite purples and most likely lower ratios than even 10:1. Look at the GFS, same thing around 3-5 inches. Yea, someone may get 6 but in general, 3-5 looks like it is the most reasonable call at this point. That rgem shows 6-8 in agc. The gfs shows about 4-6, but you're not reading either that hires nam map or the rgem correctly. Plus, at least at the beginning rates are going to be higher than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:50 PM, colonel717 said: I am looking at the shading area of lite blueish into lite purples and most likely lower ratios than even 10:1. Look at the GFS, same thing around 3-5 inches. Yea, someone may get 6 but in general, 3-5 looks like it is the most reasonable call at this point. I would be shocked if someone in the city area got 5" from this.. Looks like a general 1-3" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ratios must be terrible on GFS. I'll take the NAM instead lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:43 PM, KPITSnow said: I am extraordinarily confused what you are looking at when reading these maps.... Sorry col it look like 4-8 Or. 5-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 3:55 PM, psunate1977 said: I would be shocked if someone in the city area got 5" from this.. Looks like a general 1-3" to me. This post is a troll and has been reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Central PA NWS snowfall map looks much more bullish. I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm hoping south tick and colder. The totals are 6 because warm toungue lets c if we trend colder or warmer today..the one good scenario that's is still certain is any outcome is still on table 1-20 inches. Rain. Slop. Sun. It's all on the table. U all know. I'm happy with 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 4:01 PM, KPITSnow said: This post is a troll and has been reported. Better report the NWS too. That's what my forecast says for tomorrow b Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What a crazy winter. Brutal cold. 30 mini 1-3 storms. We need this big one. Then we play in it for 10 days. Then march 1st come. I'm ready for 70,a on march 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 4:06 PM, Stinkbugspecialist said: I'm hoping south tick and colder. The totals are 6 because warm toungue lets c if we trend colder or warmer today..the one good scenario that's is still certain is any outcome is still on table 1-20 inches. Rain. Slop. Sun. It's all on the table. U all know. I'm happy with 20 The gfs looks like it actually keeps everything frozen. Maybe a met can chime in on what form that frozen precip it is. Even at that, it still looks like a decent 3-6 ish type hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 4:10 PM, psunate1977 said: Sent from my iPhone Not that model guidance should be taken as exact, but there is no model out there to support what our NWS office is saying. I am thinking they will have to adjust after the 12z suite is complete. At least to a 2-4 or 3-5 forecast for the general pittsburgh area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 4:13 PM, southpark said: Not that model guidance should be taken as exact, but there is no model out there to support what our NWS office is saying. I am thinking they will have to adjust after the 12z suite is complete. At least to a 2-4 or 3-5 forecast for the general pittsburgh area I agree, I would be shocked if they did not up totals and issues watches or advisories in the next few hours. Especially with central PA NWS buying in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 4:13 PM, KPITSnow said: The gfs looks like it actually keeps everything frozen. Maybe a met can chime in on what form that frozen precip it is. Even at that, it still looks like a decent 3-6 ish type hit. It still can be more. Even noaa said it's trending colder. So I'm hoping more like 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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