ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Here's a new thread guys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 New thread and hopefully a new pattern soon. Just one 10+ storm probably would satisfy all of us snow weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 New thread and hopefully a new pattern soon. Just one 10+ storm probably would satisfy all of us snow weenies That's all I really want. Most of the winter can be mild for all I care. Just give me one or two big ones at some point to enjoy. I'm not a big fan of frigid cold and nuisance amounts of snow, like we had a lot of last winter, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Be careful on the roads tonight and tomorrow morning. Rapid freeze possible with the plummeting temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 That's all I really want. Most of the winter can be mild for all I care. Just give me one or two big ones at some point to enjoy. I'm not a big fan of frigid cold and nuisance amounts of snow, like we had a lot of last winter, but that's just me. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Just had a light dusting of snow that turned the side walks and side roads slick. Figures the temperature drops just as the last bit of precip moves out. Be careful on the roads tonight and tomorrow morning. Rapid freeze possible with the plummeting temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Just had a light dusting of snow that turned the side walks and side roads slick. Figures the temperature drops just as the last bit of precip moves out. That's how it usually works around here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 That's how it usually works around here. lol seriously....a very quiet stretch of weather ahead..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 That's how it usually works around here. lol lol, this is true. At east we got a couple inches from the clipper so it wasn't totally wasted cold. seriously....a very quiet stretch of weather ahead..... Yeah, looks like at least 4-5 days of dry weather coming up. Hopefully by this weekend we will start to see something showing up for next week both in terms of a possible storm and the models getting a handle on how the pattern reload looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Well I had a long day of laying around sick, but gave me a chance to look at models. Euro is canceling the warmup next week with only sunday looking to be in the 40s. After its showing monday and tuesday pretty cold air coming into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I think our next snow chances won't show up until the last week in January when it seems the pattern will finally be more favorable. It won't be perfect by any means; I was trying to determine if January or February is a better snow month for PGH. I was looking for specific data - daily snowfall maximum records for each day in each month. Anyone know where to find it? I see January has better overall maximums compared to February: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/pbz/tsnow.htm (5 days of >11" of snow compared to 1). That said, monthly record totals seem to be about even, so it might be a wash overall. I'd like to plot the data if anyone knows where to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I think our next snow chances won't show up until the last week in January when it seems the pattern will finally be more favorable. It won't be perfect by any means; I was trying to determine if January or February is a better snow month for PGH. I was looking for specific data - daily snowfall maximum records for each day in each month. Anyone know where to find it? I see January has better overall maximums compared to February: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/pbz/tsnow.htm (5 days of >11" of snow compared to 1). That said, monthly record totals seem to be about even, so it might be a wash overall. I'd like to plot the data if anyone knows where to get it. Go to http://www.weather.gov/pbz/pit_normals , select a month, and then read in the "MXSN" column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Go to http://www.weather.gov/pbz/pit_normals , select a month, and then read in the "MXSN" column. Thanks so much for that! Finished the box and whiskers plot as a means to help visualize which month may have the best overall snow potential. One caveat, at least: I finished the chart in Excel which doesn't naturally create box and whisker plots. You have to manipulate a bar graph, that's why it looks a bit off, but it should stand nonetheless. What we see is January appears to be the best overall month for potential snows; as such, unfortunately, we're going to waste some of that potential with a dull pattern here. Now the good news is, March maintains a good bit of potential itself (more or less the same amount of potential as December). One note: February's maximum looks low, but that's largely because the 2010 storm is recorded over two days instead of one. Really February's maximum could be 21.1" instead, but that's okay. February itself doesn't lag that far behind January. Some of the more interesting dates: there's never been a decent snowstorm on January 5th, 10th, or February 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Well the new GFS in its operational state delivers a fantasy snow storm for late next week. This will be our Apps runner, its just a little east for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Well the new GFS in its operational state delivers a fantasy snow storm for late next week. This will be our Apps runner, its just a little east for the time being. Here is the Canadian at the same time next Friday. A lake cutter. Maybe we can get them to come together for a big storm. It looks like there will be a storm either way but who know which way it will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Here's an interesting read about the potential storm between the 21st and 25th: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2015/01/january-21-25-potentially-significant.html This was pulled from another forum. I don't know the forecaster or if this method of prediction is reliable, but it is an interesting read anyway. I guess we'll see how it pans out; if nothing else, we may have something to track for once. Miller A systems can, of course, produce quite well around here with favorable tracks (1996, 2003, 2010). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Here is the Canadian at the same time next Friday. A lake cutter. Maybe we can get them to come together for a big storm. It looks like there will be a storm either way but who know which way it will go. Next Friday storm is Pfttt!!!! Gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 A week out. We have seen a storm that was supposed to drop 3-5 two days before and pffft we didn't get an inch. So anything is on the table at this point. We know one thing and that there won't be a lack of cold air. If the pattern gets active then we are bound to run into something. There is no way we could be fringed multiple times in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Next Friday storm is Pfttt!!!! Gone! Storm is still there, just pretty far east on the models that have it. Seems pretty good agreement there will be some sort of storm, but the track is anyone's guess. Canadian looks like it misses the phase, GFS phases later, and Euro is a mess of short waves in the flow that eventually come together and crush DC northward. Pretty much every option is on the table I'd say at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 A week out. We have seen a storm that was supposed to drop 3-5 two days before and pffft we didn't get an inch. So anything is on the table at this point. We know one thing and that there won't be a lack of cold air. If the pattern gets active then we are bound to run into something. There is no way we could be fringed multiple times in a row. Storm is still there, just pretty far east on the models that have it. Seems pretty good agreement there will be some sort of storm, but the track is anyone's guess. Canadian looks like it misses the phase, GFS phases later, and Euro is a mess of short waves in the flow that eventually come together and crush DC northward. Pretty much every option is on the table I'd say at this range. We posted at almost the same time, lol safe to say we agree on the "everything on the table view". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Great minds think alike. Anyway, it looks like the Euro Ensembles show every single possible scenerio. There are GLCs, Southern sliders, direct hits, coastal huggers. We honestly won't know what will be the outcome until atleast early/mid next week. Things are looking up and hopefully we can cash in something. Expectations are low at this point so I think a solid warning event would get this board rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 But hes not done yet. The ensemble mean for the temperatures in the 10-15 day are really cold but look at the control run. This would give last year a run for its money. Coming soon "The Return of the Polar Vortex". Sounds like a cheesy sci fi movie but thats what could occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Great minds think alike. Anyway, it looks like the Euro Ensembles show every single possible scenerio. There are GLCs, Southern sliders, direct hits, coastal huggers. We honestly won't know what will be the outcome until atleast early/mid next week. Things are looking up and hopefully we can cash in something. Expectations are low at this point so I think a solid warning event would get this board rocking. Yeah, I don't have access to the Euro ensembles but hearing the mean track is more of a miller B storm which is much better than a miss OTS. Meanwhile, the 18z GFS is showing this for a clipper on Wednesday: At the very least the upcoming pattern looks to have storm chances, so we should have something to track at the very least and hopefully we get a nice snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's hard to tell at 24 hour intervals, but the 12z Euro didn't look too bad for next weekend. I know, I know... eight days away, but it gives me something to look forward to every twelve hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It's hard to tell at 24 hour intervals, but the 12z Euro didn't look too bad for next weekend. I know, I know... eight days away, but it gives me something to look forward to every twelve hours. one thing I notice on the euro is the systems behind the coastal. I just have a feeling that those will be the key. Usually those systems like to kick these systems further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Had some fat flakes coming down a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Getting a moderate snow shower right now. Everything getting covered up pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnswahoo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I know that we haven't received very much snow over this winter but I know that we have had less than 7.5 inches. I'm watching WPXI today and they said that we normally have received 17.5 inches but only have 7.5 thus far. At the end of December we had only .8 inches for from the begining of November so when did the other 6.7 inches fall? There hasn't been one storm that I measured that gave us more than 2 inches and honestly, that was the only real measurable snow that I could calculate. I live near the NWS so are they taking their measurements from somewhere else I don't know. Interested to see if anybody else can say they have measured at least 7.5 inches for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I know that we haven't received very much snow over this winter but I know that we have had less than 7.5 inches. I'm watching WPXI today and they said that we normally have received 17.5 inches but only have 7.5 thus far. At the end of December we had only .8 inches for from the begining of November so when did the other 6.7 inches fall? There hasn't been one storm that I measured that gave us more than 2 inches and honestly, that was the only real measurable snow that I could calculate. I live near the NWS so are they taking their measurements from somewhere else I don't know. Interested to see if anybody else can say they have measured at least 7.5 inches for the year. I haven't seen 7.5 inches. That's for sure. Maybe 3 or 4 inches? And that seems generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Seriously....I only shoveled one time and that was about 2".....not sure where they're measuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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