Ocean Effect Snow Showers for the Cape and Islands Jan 13-15th 2015

[jamesnichols89]

First of all the NWS mentions inversions and lack of overall representation of precip in the model fields suggests dry air and subsidence might be factors that mitigate this event.  However Delta Ts reach 15-20C as 850-925mb temps drop to around -9C to -10C and ocean temps remain around 5-6C, allowing moderate instability.  Also northerly fetch of winds over the Cape Cod Bay will allow the eastern half of Cape Cod to receive favorable trajectory to receive bands of snow.  GFS is more aggressive with the snow.  While the NAM relies heavily on a lower subsidence inversion.  Right now odds of snow are around 40%.

[Cold Miser]

Cool.

Let me know how it all turns out for you.

 

I am rooting for you to score huge on this.

[JC-CT]

Where is Cape Cod even located?

[jamesnichols89]

Will do Cold Miser, JC, are you serious?

[jamesnichols89]

NWS Boston thinks I can do really well in this setup, being from Harwich, MA and all, N/NE winds and 18C temp differential is good and multiple banded event some locations will get a couple inches of snow.

[Tropopause_Fold]

James you are a trip lol. 

 

peppering them with questions on twitter. 

[jamesnichols89]

James you are a trip lol. 

 

peppering them with questions on twitter. 

 

Just need to know Phil, what do you think?

[CoastalWx]

You may see a blowing dusting. The kind where the snow sort of piles to the side of the road and adds up to a translucent 0.2"

[jamesnichols89]

Why such a difference of opinion Scott?  Between you and the NWS Boston office?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Just need to know Phil, what do you think?

i think off and on stuff for quite a long while. somebody could get lucky and snag a couple of inches. but with the inversion height so low, it's far from ideal. would be nice if we could snag another 1K feet or so.

 

but considering how badly it doesn't want to snow so far this season, i suppose anything is a win. 

[ROOSTA]

Where does one begin? If it comes to fruition the event will be fluid to begin with. OES or LEK parameters are basically the same. Getting those to produce comes down to nowcast. Perfection is a thing that almost never occurs for CC. Good-luck! 

[N. OF PIKE]

Nice thread James, hope someone can score in this pattern.

[CoastalWx]

Why such a difference of opinion Scott?  Between you and the NWS Boston office?

 

I was joking. Someone on the outer Cape and perhaps cstl pym county could luck out, but inversion heights are real low. It's one of those things that are nowcasted.

[N. OF PIKE]

, JC, are you serious?

Perhaps that was an attempt at humor

[Cold Miser]

Perhaps that was an attempt at humor

Pretty much like half the responses in this thread.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The way this winter has gone, who knows. Maybe you luck out and get some nice snows. If somewhere has a shot at some decent snow its Cape Cod  Ma, United States

[jamesnichols89]

Yeah I think this is a nowcast situation.  Models like the NAM and GFS have shown favorable dynamics for OES since last week in the day 7 time period.  Question is how long do we have until the high positions itself close enough to lower the height inversions.  Instability is there high moderate or low extreme.  Plus 1-2" is something I would be happy with.  The SREFs and HIRES NAM model have snow in the 35-45% in the next 48 hours.

[jamesnichols89]

Snow is now in the forecast until Wednesday night, although WED is only 20 and 30% chances at some snow.

[jamesnichols89]

Ocean Effect Snow is now imminent.

[jamesnichols89]

Snow squalls are intensifying underneath -5C to -10C 850mb temps and 925mb temps that are colder moving over relatively warmer ocean waters north of Mid Cape.  Snow showers will move over the Mid Cape and Outer Cape later this morning into this afternoon.

[jamesnichols89]

Ocean Effect Snow bands is in convergent air over the mid Cape Cod region.  Barnstable is getting steady snows right now.  Too far to the west for Harwich to get some snow.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Heavy flizzard here

[CoastalWx]

I see the stratocumulus to my east. I'm actually waving to James right now..."Hi James...can you see me...?"

[Tropopause_Fold]

I see the stratocumulus to my east. I'm actually waving to James right now..."Hi James...can you see me...?"

lol.

 

coating of crap from overnight frozen solid. some snow flying now. 

[jamesnichols89]

Snow is falling north of route 6.  South of route 6 nothing is falling, actually have sunny skies.

[CoastalWx]

lol.

 

coating of crap from overnight frozen solid. some snow flying now. 

 

Oh you got snow from that system? 

[CoastalWx]

That looks like good snows in west of HYA on rt 6. Wow.

[Tropopause_Fold]

decent stuff flying from W. Barnstable to Sandwich right now. not bad. 

[CoastalWx]

decent stuff flying from W. Barnstable to Sandwich right now. not bad. 

 

For radar to show those echoes..must be pretty good.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Oh you got snow from that system? 

 

we flipped to snow and sleet overnight. dog woke me up to go out at like 1 AM and it was a snow/sleet/rain/crap mix. a coating is a very generous term...more like pockets of stuff on the ground. lol